SURVOL DE LA LITTÉRATURE SUR LES MODÈLES DE TAUX DE CHANGE D’ÉQUILIBRE: ASPECTS THÉORIQUES ET DISCUSSIONS COMPARATIVES

Year 2011, Volume: 66 Issue: 04, 125 - 152, 01.04.2011

Akın Usupbeyli

https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002234

Abstract

Keywords

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Denge döviz kuru modelleri üzerine bir literatür taraması: teorik görünüm ve karşılaştırmalı tartışma

Abstract

Reel döviz kurunun denge düzeyinden sapması, bir ülkenin rekabet gücündeki kayıpların, kaynakların sektörler arasında dengesiz dağılımının, döviz krizlerinin ve küresel makroekonomik dengesizliklerin en önemli nedenleri arasında kabul edilmektedir. Bu sebeple bir denge döviz kuru belirlemek ve hesaplamak makroekonominin önemli konularından biri haline gelmiştir. Denge döviz kuru üzerine olan en son çalışmaların satın alma gücü paritesinin denge döviz kurunu belirlemek için uygun bir yöntem olmadığını göstermesi nedeniyle, birçok iktisatçı dikkatlerini döviz kurunun reel belirleyenlerinin açıkça ortaya konduğu denge döviz kuru modellerine çevirmişlerdir. Bu makalenin amacı, en sık kullanılan teorik ve ampirik denge döviz kuru modellerine eleştirel bir bakış sunmaktır. İlk olarak bu modellerin temel kavramlarını, varsayımlarını ve analitik temellerini incelenmektedir. Makalenin sonunda ise, her modelin güçlü ve zayıf yönlerinin tartışılması üzerinde durulacaktır

Keywords

Denge döviz kuru, dengeden sapma, FEER, BEER, NATREX

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