TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Sevda Yapraklı

doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000002188

TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2010, Volume: 65 Issue: 04, 141 - 163, 01.04.2010

Sevda Yapraklı

https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002188

Cited By: 7

Abstract

Keywords

References

Acaravcı, A. ve I. Öztürk (2008), “Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Empirical Evidence from the ARDL Bound Test Approach for Turkey,” Bulletin of Statistics and Economics, 2: 57-64.
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Bagnai, A ve S. Manzocchı (1999),“Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundemantals,” Open Economic Review, 10: 143-163.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1986), “Determinants of International Trade Flows: The Case of Developing Countries,” Journal of Development Economics, 20: 107-123.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1989), “Effects of the US Government Budget on its Current Account: An Empirical Inquiry,” Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 29: 76-91
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1995), “The Long-Run Determinations of the US Trade Balance Revisited?,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 17: 457-465.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(2004), “Dynamics of the U.S. Trade With Developing Countries,” The Journal of Developing Areas, 37(2): 1-11.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M ve F. Niroomand (1998); “Long-Run Price Elasticities and The Marshall-Lerner Condition Revisited,” Economics Letters, 61: 101-109.
Baldemir, E. ve A.Keskiner (2004), “Devalüasyon, Para, Reel Gelir Değişkenlerinin Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisinin Panel Data Yöntemiyle Türkiye İçin İncelenmesi,” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 6(4): 44-59.
Bardsen, G.(1989), “Estimation of Long Run Coefficient in Error Correction Models,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 51: 345-350.
Bems, R., L. Dedola ve F. Smets (2006), “US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Fiscal and Monetary Policy,” European Central Bank Paper, http://sccie.ucsc.edu/webpages/ conf/Euro-Dollar/2006/Smets_paper.pdf 5, Erişim Tarihi: 02.08.2007.
Boivin, J. ve M .P.Giannoni (2006), “Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(3): 445-462.
Bussiére, M., M.Fratzscher ve G. J. Muller (2004), ‘‘Current Account Dynamics in OECD and AB Acceding Countries-An Intertemporal Approach,’, ECB Working Paper Series : 311.
Calderon, C. A., A. Chong, A. ve N. LOAYZA (2002), “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries,” Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2: 1-35.
Chinn, M. D. ve E. S. Prasad (2000), ‘‘Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Eploration,” IMF Working Paper, 46.
Christiano, L. J., M. Eichenbaum ve C. L. Evans (1999), “Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and To What End?,” Taylor, B ve M.Woodford(eds), Handbook of Macroeconomics(Amsterdam: Elsevier): 65-148.
Clarıida, R., J. Gali ve M. Gertler (2000), “Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 25(2): 147-180.
Corsetti, G. ve G. J. Muller (2006), “Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense,” Economic Policy, 21(48): 598–638.
Darrat, D. A. (1988), “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?,” Southern Economic Journal, 54: 879-887.
Doğanlar, M., H. Bal ve M. Özmen (2004), “Uluslararası Ticaret ve Türkiye’nin İhracat Fonksiyonu,” Manas Üniversitesi S.B.E. Dergisi, 7: 83-109.
Duasa, J. (2007), “Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach,” Global Economic Review, 36(1): http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/ title~content=t713735143~db=all~tab=issueslist~branches=36 - v3689-102.
Egwaikhide, F. O. (1999), “Effects of Budget Deficit on Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Simulation Exercise,” African Development Review, 11(2): 265-289.
Eken, A. (1990), “Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Model Çalışması,” Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, I(2): 73-87.
Enders, W. ve B. S. Lee (1990); “Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 72(3): 373-381.
Erkılıç, S. (2006), Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri (Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi) (Ankara:Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü).
Fraga, A. (2000); “Monetary Policy During the Transition to a Floating Exchange Rate: Brazil's Recent Experience,” Finance and Development, 37(1): 1-5.
Freud, C. L. (2000), “Current Account Adjustment in Industrial Countries,” International Finance Discussion Paper, 692.
Froyen, R. T. (1999), Macroeconomics Theories and Policies (New Jersey: JPrentice Hall Inc).
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anesh, S.M. ve V.Srivyal (2003), “Revisiting the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balances,” Economic Studies, 2: 34-44.
Ghosh, A. R.ve J. D. Ostry (1995); “The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach,” The World Bank Economic Review, 19(2): 303-333.
Hooper, P. ve R. Tyron (1984), “The Current Account of the United States, Japan, and Germany: A Cyclical Analysis,” Board of Governors International Finance Discussion Papers, 236: 1- 39.
Houthakker, H. S. ve S. P. Magge (1969), “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 51: 111-125.
Howard, D. H. (1989), “Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(4): 153-165.
Huang, C. J. (2006), “Government Expenditures in China and Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner’s Law,” Journal of Economic Development, 31(2): 139-148.
Kandil, M. ve J. Grene (2002), “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payments,” IMF Working Paper, 2(5).
Karunaratne, N.D. (1988), “Macro-Economic Determinants of Australia's Current Account, 1977- 1986,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 124(4): 713-728.
Khan, M.S. ve M.D. Knight (1983), “Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s,” IMF Staff Papers, 4(30): 819-842.
Kim, S. (2001), “Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Trade Balance in Small Open European countries,” Economics Letters, 71(2):197-203.
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Krugman, P. ve R. Baldwin (1987), “The Persistence of The U.S. Trade Deficit,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-43.
Kutlar, A. ve M. Şimşek (2001), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: 1984(4)-2000(2),” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 16(1): 1-13.
Kyereme, S.S. (2002), “Determinants of United States’ Trade Balance with Australia,” Applied Economics, 34(10): 1241-1250.
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TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2010, Volume: 65 Issue: 04, 141 - 163, 01.04.2010

Sevda Yapraklı

https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002188

Cited By: 7

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret açıklarını etkileyen temel faktörleri, maliye, para ve döviz kuru politikası çerçevesinde incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, esnek döviz kuru rejiminin uygulandığı 2001:3-2009:6 dönemine ait aylık zaman serileri kullanılarak reel bütçe açığı, reel para arzı ve reel efektif döviz kuru endeksinin reel dış ticaret açığı üzerindeki etkileri sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre uzun dönemde dış ticaret açığı; bütçe açığından pozitif ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı, para arzından negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı, reel efektif kur endeksinden ise pozitif ve istatistiki açıdan anlamsız olarak etkilenmektedir. Öte yandan kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları, para arzının dış ticaret açığını pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bütçe açığı ve reel efektif kur endeksine ait kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları ise uzun dönemli ilişki sonuçlarıyla paralellik arz etmektedir.

Keywords

Dış açık, bütçe açığı, para arzı, reel kur, ADRL Yaklaşımı, sınır testi

References

Acaravcı, A. ve I. Öztürk (2008), “Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Empirical Evidence from the ARDL Bound Test Approach for Turkey,” Bulletin of Statistics and Economics, 2: 57-64.
Adedeji, O.S., J.Handa ve A. B. Darku (2005), The Balance of Payments Analysis of Developing Economies: Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana (England :Ashgate Publishing Ltd).
Akbostancı, E. ve G.I. TUNÇ (2002), “Turkish Twin Deficits: an Error Correction Model of Trade Balance,” ERC Working Papers, 01(06).
Alkswani, A.M. (2000), “The Twin Deficit Phenomenon in Petroleum Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia,” Seventh Annual Conference, Economic Research Forum (Amman).
Anoruo, E. ve S. Ramchander (1998), “Current Account and Fiscal Deficits: Evidence from Developing Economies of Asia,” Journal of Asian Economics, 9(3) : 487-501.
Arize, A.C. (1994), “Cointegration Test of a Long-run Relation between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance,” International Economic Journal, 8(3): 1-9.
Aydın, M.F., U.Çıplak ve M.E.Yucel (2004), “Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy,” The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, 04(09).
Bagnai, A ve S. Manzocchı (1999),“Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundemantals,” Open Economic Review, 10: 143-163.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1986), “Determinants of International Trade Flows: The Case of Developing Countries,” Journal of Development Economics, 20: 107-123.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1989), “Effects of the US Government Budget on its Current Account: An Empirical Inquiry,” Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 29: 76-91
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1995), “The Long-Run Determinations of the US Trade Balance Revisited?,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 17: 457-465.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(2004), “Dynamics of the U.S. Trade With Developing Countries,” The Journal of Developing Areas, 37(2): 1-11.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M ve F. Niroomand (1998); “Long-Run Price Elasticities and The Marshall-Lerner Condition Revisited,” Economics Letters, 61: 101-109.
Baldemir, E. ve A.Keskiner (2004), “Devalüasyon, Para, Reel Gelir Değişkenlerinin Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisinin Panel Data Yöntemiyle Türkiye İçin İncelenmesi,” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 6(4): 44-59.
Bardsen, G.(1989), “Estimation of Long Run Coefficient in Error Correction Models,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 51: 345-350.
Bems, R., L. Dedola ve F. Smets (2006), “US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Fiscal and Monetary Policy,” European Central Bank Paper, http://sccie.ucsc.edu/webpages/ conf/Euro-Dollar/2006/Smets_paper.pdf 5, Erişim Tarihi: 02.08.2007.
Boivin, J. ve M .P.Giannoni (2006), “Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(3): 445-462.
Bussiére, M., M.Fratzscher ve G. J. Muller (2004), ‘‘Current Account Dynamics in OECD and AB Acceding Countries-An Intertemporal Approach,’, ECB Working Paper Series : 311.
Calderon, C. A., A. Chong, A. ve N. LOAYZA (2002), “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries,” Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2: 1-35.
Chinn, M. D. ve E. S. Prasad (2000), ‘‘Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Eploration,” IMF Working Paper, 46.
Christiano, L. J., M. Eichenbaum ve C. L. Evans (1999), “Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and To What End?,” Taylor, B ve M.Woodford(eds), Handbook of Macroeconomics(Amsterdam: Elsevier): 65-148.
Clarıida, R., J. Gali ve M. Gertler (2000), “Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 25(2): 147-180.
Corsetti, G. ve G. J. Muller (2006), “Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense,” Economic Policy, 21(48): 598–638.
Darrat, D. A. (1988), “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?,” Southern Economic Journal, 54: 879-887.
Doğanlar, M., H. Bal ve M. Özmen (2004), “Uluslararası Ticaret ve Türkiye’nin İhracat Fonksiyonu,” Manas Üniversitesi S.B.E. Dergisi, 7: 83-109.
Duasa, J. (2007), “Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach,” Global Economic Review, 36(1): http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/ title~content=t713735143~db=all~tab=issueslist~branches=36 - v3689-102.
Egwaikhide, F. O. (1999), “Effects of Budget Deficit on Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Simulation Exercise,” African Development Review, 11(2): 265-289.
Eken, A. (1990), “Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Model Çalışması,” Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, I(2): 73-87.
Enders, W. ve B. S. Lee (1990); “Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 72(3): 373-381.
Erkılıç, S. (2006), Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri (Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi) (Ankara:Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü).
Fraga, A. (2000); “Monetary Policy During the Transition to a Floating Exchange Rate: Brazil's Recent Experience,” Finance and Development, 37(1): 1-5.
Freud, C. L. (2000), “Current Account Adjustment in Industrial Countries,” International Finance Discussion Paper, 692.
Froyen, R. T. (1999), Macroeconomics Theories and Policies (New Jersey: JPrentice Hall Inc).
Gali, J., J. D. Lopez-Salido ve J. Valles (2003), “Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance,” NBER Working Papers, 8768, http://www.nber.org/ papers/w8768 (Erişim Tarihi: 05.07.2007).
anesh, S.M. ve V.Srivyal (2003), “Revisiting the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balances,” Economic Studies, 2: 34-44.
Ghosh, A. R.ve J. D. Ostry (1995); “The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach,” The World Bank Economic Review, 19(2): 303-333.
Hooper, P. ve R. Tyron (1984), “The Current Account of the United States, Japan, and Germany: A Cyclical Analysis,” Board of Governors International Finance Discussion Papers, 236: 1- 39.
Houthakker, H. S. ve S. P. Magge (1969), “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 51: 111-125.
Howard, D. H. (1989), “Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(4): 153-165.
Huang, C. J. (2006), “Government Expenditures in China and Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner’s Law,” Journal of Economic Development, 31(2): 139-148.
Kandil, M. ve J. Grene (2002), “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payments,” IMF Working Paper, 2(5).
Karunaratne, N.D. (1988), “Macro-Economic Determinants of Australia's Current Account, 1977- 1986,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 124(4): 713-728.
Khan, M.S. ve M.D. Knight (1983), “Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s,” IMF Staff Papers, 4(30): 819-842.
Kim, S. (2001), “Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Trade Balance in Small Open European countries,” Economics Letters, 71(2):197-203.
Kimbugwe, H. (2006), “The Bilateral J-Curve Hypothesis Between Turkey and Her 9 Trading Partners,” MPRA Paper, 4254, http:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4254/ (Erişim Tarihi: 08.07.2007).
Kremers, J. M., Ericsson, N. R. ve J. Dolado (1992), “The Power of Cointegration Tests,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54: 325-348.
Krugman, P. ve R. Baldwin (1987), “The Persistence of The U.S. Trade Deficit,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-43.
Kutlar, A. ve M. Şimşek (2001), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: 1984(4)-2000(2),” Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 16(1): 1-13.
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Details

Primary Language	Turkish
Journal Section	Research Articles
Authors	Sevda Yapraklı This is me
Publication Date	April 1, 2010
Submission Date	July 31, 2014
Published in Issue	Year 2010 Volume: 65 Issue: 04

Cite

APA	Yapraklı, S. (2010). TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 65(04), 141-163. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002188
AMA	Yapraklı S. TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. SBF Dergisi. April 2010;65(04):141-163. doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000002188
Chicago	Yapraklı, Sevda. “TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 65, no. 04 (April 2010): 141-63. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002188.
EndNote	Yapraklı S (April 1, 2010) TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 65 04 141–163.
IEEE	S. Yapraklı, “TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI”, SBF Dergisi, vol. 65, no. 04, pp. 141–163, 2010, doi: 10.1501/SBFder_0000002188.
ISNAD	Yapraklı, Sevda. “TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 65/04 (April 2010), 141-163. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002188.
JAMA	Yapraklı S. TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. SBF Dergisi. 2010;65:141–163.
MLA	Yapraklı, Sevda. “TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, vol. 65, no. 04, 2010, pp. 141-63, doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000002188.
Vancouver	Yapraklı S. TÜRKİYE’DE ESNEK DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ ALTINDA DIŞ AÇIKLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. SBF Dergisi. 2010;65(04):141-63.