Türk safkan Arap atlarında yarış hayatına etki eden faktörlerin belirlenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı farklı nitelikteki Türk Safkan Arap atlarının yaşam fonksiyonları ile ortalama yarış hayatı sürelerinin hesaplanmasıdır. Bunun yanısıra, Arap atlarının yarış hayatı uzunluğunda etkili olabilecek risk faktörlerini belirlemek ve bu faktörlerin yer aldığı bir model oluşturmak hedeflenmiştir. Çalışmanın materyalini 2003 ve daha sonraki yıllarda doğan 3354 safkan Arap atı oluşturmaktadır. İncelenen her bir faktör için ortalama yarış hayatı uzunluğunun hesaplanmasında Kaplan-Meier analizi kullanılmıştır. Yarış hayatına etki eden risk faktörlerinin belirlenmesi ve bu faktörlerden yararlanılarak bir model oluşturulmasında ise Cox regresyonundan yararlanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, Arap atlarının ortalama yarış hayatı uzunluğu 22.74 ay (%95GA: 22.04- 23.44) olarak bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, “yaş”, “cinsiyet”, “yetiştiği hara tipi”, “tek tip yarış pistinde yarışma” ve “ kazanç” değişkenlerinin yarış hayatı uzunluğunda istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı etkisi bulunmuştur

Keywords

• Arap atı, risk faktörleri, yarış kariyeri, yaşam analizi

Determination of factors affecting the length of racing career of Arabian horses in Turkey

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to estimate survival functions and the average length of racing career of Arabian racehorses in Turkey in different circumstances. In addition, it was aimed to determine the risk factors that affect the length of racing career of Arabian horses and to create a model including these factors. In this study, the information of 3354 Arabian racehorses that was born in or after 2003 were used. Kaplan Meier analysis was used to estimate the average length of racing career for each selected factors. Cox regression was used to determine the risk factors affecting the length of racing career as well as creating a model using those factors. Results showed that the mean length of racing career of Arabian horses was 22.74 months (95% CI: 22.04-23.44). Also, ‘age’, ‘sex’, ‘type of stud farm’, ‘racing on single type of track surface’ and ‘earnings’ variables were found statistically significant risk factors that affect the length of racing career

Keywords

• Arabian horse, racing career, risk factors, survival analysis

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