Assessment of the Current Status and Future of the International Agreement on Iran's Nuclear Program

Abstract

Since 2002, Iran's nuclear program has been the subject of bilateral, multilateral and international negotiations, culminating in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal) in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 Group of the United Kingdom, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Donald Trump withdrew from the Agreement in 2018 when he took office as US president. Since 2018, Iran has resumed its nuclear program, enriching uranium to 60% and acquiring weapons-grade enrichment capacity. This article aims to identify the stage reached in the process related to Iran's nuclear program, to evaluate the regional repercussions and options for the future of the nuclear program problem and to make predictions by taking into account the changes in the international strategic environment and the approaches of important actors. In this article, the existing literature is reviewed to determine the situation, the approaches of the actors in the process leading up to and after the negotiation and signing of the JCPOA are examined, and the data obtained are interpreted and evaluated.

Keywords

• Iran
• P5+1
• USA
• Nuclear Program
• JCPOA
• Uranium Enrichment

İran’ın Nükleer Programına İlişkin Uluslararası Anlaşmanın Mevcut Durumu ve Geleceğinin Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

2002’den günümüze İran’ın nükleer programı üzerinde ikili, çoklu ve uluslararası platformlarda çeşitli görüşmeler yürütülmüş ve İran ile İngiltere, Çin, Fransa, Almanya, Rusya ve ABD’nin yer aldığı P5+1 Grubu arasında 2015 yılında Ortak Kapsamlı Eylem Planı (JCPOA veya İran nükleer anlaşması) imzalanmıştır. Donald Trump, ABD başkanı olarak göreve başladığında 2018'de Anlaşmadan çekilmiştir. İran ise 2018’den günümüze nükleer programına kaldığı yerden devam ederek uranyumu % 60 düzeyinde zenginleştirmiş ve silah düzeyinde zenginleştirme kapasitesi kazanmıştır. Bu makalede, İran’ın nükleer programıyla ilgili süreçte gelinen aşamanın tespiti, uluslararası stratejik ortamdaki değişimler ve önemli aktörlerin yaklaşımları dikkate alınarak bölgesel yansımaların ve nükleer program sorunun geleceğine ilişkin seçeneklerin değerlendirilmesi ve öngörülerde bulunması amaçlanmıştır. Makalede amaca yönelik olarak mevcut literatür incelenerek durum tespiti yapılmış, JCPOA’nın müzakere ve imzalanmasına uzanan ve sonrasını kapsayan süreçte aktörlerin yaklaşımları incelenmiş, elde edilen veriler yorumlanarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

• İran
• P5+1
• ABD
• Nükleer Program
• JCPOA
• Uranyum Zenginleştirme

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