YUNANİSTAN VE TÜRKİYE’DEKİ SEÇİM BARAJLARININ PARTİ SİSTEMİ PARÇALANMASI VE ORANTISIZ TEMSİLİYETE ETKİSİ

Abstract

Seçimlerde galip gelen parti için parlamento çoğunluğunu sağladığı bilinen genel seçim barajları (GSB); parti sistemi parçalanmasını azaltmak; aşırı, küçük veya çoğunluk/çekirdekte olmayan grupların partilerinin parlamentoya girmesini önlemek amacıyla uygulanır. Bu makale, sırasıyla 1993 ve 1983’ten beri GSB uygulayan Yunanistan ve Türkiye'nin karşılaştırmalı bir incelemesini vererek, bu amaçlardan bazılarının neden başarılı bir şekilde gerçekleştirilemediğini açıklama amacındadır. 1950’den bu yana iki ülkedeki seçimleri kapsayan zaman serisi data-setimiz, her iki ülke için de GBS’lerin uygulanmasının tek parti hükümetleri kurmak için bir gereklilik olmadığını, ancak esas olarak bazı grupların parlamentoya parti olarak girmesini önlemek için uygulandığını ve özellikle orantısız temsile neden olduğunu ampirik olarak sunmaktadır. Türkiye’de GBS uygulaması seçimlere katılan partilerin sayısını azalmıştır; ancak bu etki uzun vadede ortadan kalkma eğilimindedir ve literatürün tersine parti sistemlerini istikrara kavuşturmamıştır. Son olarak, Yunanistan’da 2012’den beri aşırı partiler, parçalı parti sisteminden yararlanırken, Türkiye’de seçim mühendisliği çekirdek olmayan grupların seçim barajını aşmasını engellememektedir.

Keywords

• Parti Sistemi
• Genel Seçim Barajı
• Yunanistan Siyaseti
• Türkiye Siyaseti
• Orantısız Temsiliyet

IMPACT OF NATIONWIDE ELECTORAL THRESHOLDS ON PARTY SYSTEM FRAGMENTATION AND DISPROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION IN GREECE AND TURKEY

Abstract

Nationwide electoral thresholds (NETs) are known to secure a parliamentary majority for the largest party, reduce party system fragmentation, and prevent extreme, minor, or non-core group parties from entering parliament. By comparing Greece and Turkey, which have applied NETs since 1993 and 1983 respectively, this article investigates why some of these aims have not been achieved. Using time-series data since 1950, we show that neither country needed to introduce NETs to establish single-party governments. Rather, they were implemented primarily to prevent non-core groups from entering parliament as a party. This caused disproportional legislative representation, especially in Turkey. Although Turkey’s NET initially reduced the raw number of parties contesting elections, this effect weakened in the long run and, in contrast to the literature, increased party system fragmentation. Finally, extreme parties have benefitted from Greece’s fragmented party system since 2012 whereas electoral engineering in Turkey has failed to prevent non-core groups from passing the electoral threshold.

Keywords

• Party System
• Nationwide Electoral Thresholds
• Greek Politics
• Turkish Politics
• Disproportional Representation

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