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YUNANİSTAN VE TÜRKİYE’DEKİ SEÇİM BARAJLARININ PARTİ SİSTEMİ PARÇALANMASI VE ORANTISIZ TEMSİLİYETE ETKİSİ

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 233 - 267, 01.07.2022
https://doi.org/10.30903/Balkan.1134203

Abstract

Seçimlerde galip gelen parti için parlamento çoğunluğunu sağladığı bilinen genel seçim barajları (GSB); parti sistemi parçalanmasını azaltmak; aşırı, küçük veya çoğunluk/çekirdekte olmayan grupların partilerinin parlamentoya girmesini önlemek amacıyla uygulanır. Bu makale, sırasıyla 1993 ve 1983’ten beri GSB uygulayan Yunanistan ve Türkiye'nin karşılaştırmalı bir incelemesini vererek, bu amaçlardan bazılarının neden başarılı bir şekilde gerçekleştirilemediğini açıklama amacındadır. 1950’den bu yana iki ülkedeki seçimleri kapsayan zaman serisi data-setimiz, her iki ülke için de GBS’lerin uygulanmasının tek parti hükümetleri kurmak için bir gereklilik olmadığını, ancak esas olarak bazı grupların parlamentoya parti olarak girmesini önlemek için uygulandığını ve özellikle orantısız temsile neden olduğunu ampirik olarak sunmaktadır. Türkiye’de GBS uygulaması seçimlere katılan partilerin sayısını azalmıştır; ancak bu etki uzun vadede ortadan kalkma eğilimindedir ve literatürün tersine parti sistemlerini istikrara kavuşturmamıştır. Son olarak, Yunanistan’da 2012’den beri aşırı partiler, parçalı parti sisteminden yararlanırken, Türkiye’de seçim mühendisliği çekirdek olmayan grupların seçim barajını aşmasını engellememektedir.

References

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  • BIEBER Florian and Dario Brentin, (eds.), Social Movements in the Balkans: Rebellion and Protest from Maribor to Taksim, Routledge, New York 2018.
  • BLAIS André and R. Kenneth Carty, “Does Proportional Representation Foster Voter Turnout?”, European Journal of Political Research, Volume 18, Number 2, 1990, pp. 167-181.
  • BORMANN, N. Christian and Matt Golder, “Democratic Electoral Systems Around The World, 1946–2011”, Electoral Studies, Volume 32, Number 2, 2013, pp. 360-369.
  • BOSCO, Anna and Susannah Verney, “From Electoral Epidemic to Government Epidemic: The Next Level of the Crisis in Southern Europe”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 21, Number 4, 2016, pp. 383-406.
  • CLOGG, Richard, A Concise History of Greece, Fourth Edition, Cambridge Publications, Cambridge 2002.
  • COLEMAN, Stephen, “Dynamics in the Fragmentation of Political Party Systems”, Quality and Quantity, Volume 29, Number 2, 1995, pp. 141-155.
  • ÇARKOĞLU, Ali, “The Turkish Party System in Transition: Party Performance and Agenda Change”, Political Studies, Volume 46, Number 3, 1998, pp. 544-571.
  • ________, “Voting behaviour”, (eds.) Metin Heper and Sabri Sayarı, The Routledge Handbook of Modern Turkey, Routledge, London and New York 2012, pp. 160-170.
  • DIMITRAS, P. Elias, “Electoral Systems in Greece”, Eastern European Development and Public Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, London 1994, pp. 143-175.
  • DUVERGER, Maurice, Political Parties, Methuen, New York 1954.
  • DÜNDAR, Fuat, Türkiye Nüfus Sayımlarında Azınlıklar, Çiviyazıları, İstanbul 2000.
  • GEORGIADOU, Vasiliki and Jenny Mavropoulou, “Anti-Establishment Parties in Government: Syriza-Anel Policy-Making Match between the Radical Left and the Radical Right”, Southern Europe, Volume 45, Number 1, 2021, pp. 19-47.
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  • NETO, Octavio Amorim and Gary W. Cox, “Electoral Institutions, Cleavage Structures, and the Number of Parties”, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 41, Number 1, 1997, pp. 149-174.
  • NEZI, Roula, “Economic Voting Under the Economic Crisis: Evidence from Greece”, Electoral Studies, Volume 31, Number 3, 2012, pp. 498-505.
  • NIKOLAKOPOULOS, Elias, “The Electoral Influence of Political Parties”, in Elections and Political Parties in the 1980s: Evolution and Prospects of the Political System, (eds.) Christos Lyrintzis and Elias Nikolakopoulos, Themelio, Athens 1990, pp. 203-247 (In Greek).
  • NORRIS, Pippa, Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2006.
  • ORDESHOOK, Peter C. and Olga V. Shvetsova, “Ethnic Heterogeneity, District Magnitude and The Number of Parties”, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 38, Number 1, 1994, pp. 100-123.
  • ÖZBUDUN, Ergun, “Seçim Sistemleri ve Türkiye”, Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, Volume 44, Number 1, 1995, pp. 521-539
  • PAPPAS, Takis S., “Winning by Default: The Greek Election of 2009”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 15, Number 2, 2010, pp. 273-287.
  • PENAS, Ignacio. L., “Cleavages and Thresholds: the Political Consequences of Electoral Laws in The Spanish Autonomous Communities, 1980-2000”, Electoral Studies, Volume 23, Number 1, 2004, pp. 23-43.
  • POWELL, G. Bingham, Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence, Harvard University Press, Cambridge 1982.
  • RAE, Douglas W., The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws, Yale University Press, New Haven 1967.
  • RORI, Lamprini, “The 2019 Greek Parliamentary Election: Retour à la Normale”, West European Politics, Volume 43, Number 4, 2019, pp. 1023-1037.
  • SABUNCU, Yavuz, “Seçim Barajları ve Siyasal Sonuçları”, Anayasa Yargısı, Volume 22, Number 1, 2006, pp. 191-197.
  • SARTORI, Giovanni, Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1976.
  • SAYARI, Sabri, “Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 21, Number 2, 2016, pp. 263-280.
  • ________, “The Changing Party System”, in Politics, Parties and Elections in Turkey, (eds.) Sabri Sayarı and Yılmaz Esmer, Lynne Rienner Publications, London 2002, pp. 9-32.
  • TAAGEPERA, Rein and Matthew Soberg Shugart, “Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger’s Mechanical Effect”, American Political Science Review, Volume 87, Number 2, 1993, pp. 455-464.
  • TAŞKIN, Burcu, “The 2019 Provincial Elections in Turkey: AKP’s Struggle to Retain Power Vis-a-Vis a Revitalized CHP”, Regional and Federal Studies, 2021, Volume 31, Number 3, pp. 1-14.
  • ________, “SYRIZA’s Electoral Victory in Greek Thrace: Impact of Muslim Minority Vote in the Changing Political System”, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, Volume 23, Number 2, 2017, pp. 155-181.
  • TAYLOR, Michae and Valentine M. Herman, “Party Systems and Government Stability”, The American Political Science Review, Volume 65, Number 1, 1971, pp. 28-37.
  • TEPEROGLOU, Eftichia and Emmanouil Tsatsanis, “Dealignment, De-legitimation and the Implosion of the Two-Party System in Greece: The Earthquake Election of 6 May 2012”, Journal of Elections, Public Opinions and Parties, Volume 24, Number 2, 2014, pp. 222–242.
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  • TSATSANIS, Emmanouil, Eftichia Teperoglou and Angelos Seriatos, “Two-partyism Reloaded: Polarisation, Negative Partisanship, and the Return of the Left-right Divide in the Greek Elections of 2019”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 25, Number 3-4, 2020, pp. 503-532.
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  • VASILIKI, Georgiadou and Jenny Mavropoulou, “Anti-Establishment Parties in Government: Syriza-Anel Policy-Making Match Between the Radical Left and the Radical Right”, Southeastern Europe, Volume 45, Number 1, 2021, pp. 19-47.
  • VOULGARIS, Yannis and Ilias Nikolakopoulos, “Introduction”, Ο Διπλός Εκλογικός Σεισμός [2012 The Double Earthquake Elections], Themelio, Athens 2014, pp. 1-21.
  • WITZIG, F. Martina and Adrian Vatter, “Electoral Institutions, Social Diversity and Fragmentation of Party Systems: A Reassessment”, Swiss Political Science Review, Volume 24, Number 1, 2018, pp. 1-15.
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IMPACT OF NATIONWIDE ELECTORAL THRESHOLDS ON PARTY SYSTEM FRAGMENTATION AND DISPROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION IN GREECE AND TURKEY

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 233 - 267, 01.07.2022
https://doi.org/10.30903/Balkan.1134203

Abstract

Nationwide electoral thresholds (NETs) are known to secure a parliamentary majority for the largest party, reduce party system fragmentation, and prevent extreme, minor, or non-core group parties from entering parliament. By comparing Greece and Turkey, which have applied NETs since 1993 and 1983 respectively, this article investigates why some of these aims have not been achieved. Using time-series data since 1950, we show that neither country needed to introduce NETs to establish single-party governments. Rather, they were implemented primarily to prevent non-core groups from entering parliament as a party. This caused disproportional legislative representation, especially in Turkey. Although Turkey’s NET initially reduced the raw number of parties contesting elections, this effect weakened in the long run and, in contrast to the literature, increased party system fragmentation. Finally, extreme parties have benefitted from Greece’s fragmented party system since 2012 whereas electoral engineering in Turkey has failed to prevent non-core groups from passing the electoral threshold.

References

  • AARBAKKE, Vermund, “Concept of Reciprocity and Its Significance for the Political Organization of the Muslim Minority in Greece”, Reciprocity: Greek and Turkish Minorities Law, Religion and Politics, (ed.) Samim Akgönül, Istanbul Bilgi University Press, Istanbul 2008, pp. 443-460.
  • ARSLANTAŞ Düzgün, Şenol Arslantaş and Andre Kaiser, “Does the Electoral System Foster a Predominant Party System? Evidence from Turkey”, Swiss Political Science Review, Volume 26, Number 1, 2020, pp. 125-143.
  • BIEBER Florian and Dario Brentin, (eds.), Social Movements in the Balkans: Rebellion and Protest from Maribor to Taksim, Routledge, New York 2018.
  • BLAIS André and R. Kenneth Carty, “Does Proportional Representation Foster Voter Turnout?”, European Journal of Political Research, Volume 18, Number 2, 1990, pp. 167-181.
  • BORMANN, N. Christian and Matt Golder, “Democratic Electoral Systems Around The World, 1946–2011”, Electoral Studies, Volume 32, Number 2, 2013, pp. 360-369.
  • BOSCO, Anna and Susannah Verney, “From Electoral Epidemic to Government Epidemic: The Next Level of the Crisis in Southern Europe”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 21, Number 4, 2016, pp. 383-406.
  • CLOGG, Richard, A Concise History of Greece, Fourth Edition, Cambridge Publications, Cambridge 2002.
  • COLEMAN, Stephen, “Dynamics in the Fragmentation of Political Party Systems”, Quality and Quantity, Volume 29, Number 2, 1995, pp. 141-155.
  • ÇARKOĞLU, Ali, “The Turkish Party System in Transition: Party Performance and Agenda Change”, Political Studies, Volume 46, Number 3, 1998, pp. 544-571.
  • ________, “Voting behaviour”, (eds.) Metin Heper and Sabri Sayarı, The Routledge Handbook of Modern Turkey, Routledge, London and New York 2012, pp. 160-170.
  • DIMITRAS, P. Elias, “Electoral Systems in Greece”, Eastern European Development and Public Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, London 1994, pp. 143-175.
  • DUVERGER, Maurice, Political Parties, Methuen, New York 1954.
  • DÜNDAR, Fuat, Türkiye Nüfus Sayımlarında Azınlıklar, Çiviyazıları, İstanbul 2000.
  • GEORGIADOU, Vasiliki and Jenny Mavropoulou, “Anti-Establishment Parties in Government: Syriza-Anel Policy-Making Match between the Radical Left and the Radical Right”, Southern Europe, Volume 45, Number 1, 2021, pp. 19-47.
  • GOLDER, Sona Nadenichek, “Pre-electoral Coalition Formation in Parliamentary Democracies”, British Journal of Political Science, Volume 36, Number 2, 2006, pp. 193-212.
  • GRFREECE, Greece Electoral, Political Parties Laws and Regulations Handbook: Strategic Information, Regulations, Procedures (World Business and Investment Library), International Business Publications, Washington 2015.
  • GÜRSOY, Yaprak, Between Military Rule and Democracy: Regime Consolidation in Greece, Turkey, and Beyond, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor 2017.
  • HÜSEYİNOĞLU, Ali and Alexandros Sakellariou, “Islamophobia in Greece: National Report 2017”, in European Islamophobia Report 2017, (eds.) Enes Bayraklı and Farid Hafez, SETA Publications, Istanbul 2018, pp. 258-304.
  • HÜSEYİNOĞLU, Ali, “Balkanlarda Azınlıklar ve Siyasal Katılım Hakkı: Batı Trakya (Yunanistan) Örneği”, Yeni Türkiye, Volume 21, Number 69, 2015, pp. 4777-4786.
  • KASAPOVIC, Mirjana, “Coalition Governments in Croatia: First Experience 2000-2003”, Politička Misao, Volume 40, Number 5, 2003, pp. 52-67.
  • KİM, Jae-On and Mahn-Geum Ohn, “A Theory of Minor-Party Persistence: Election Rules, Social Cleavage and The Number of Political Parties”, Social Forces, Volume 70, Number 3, 1992, pp. 575-599.
  • LAAKSO, Markku and Rein Taagepera, “Effective” Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe”, Comparative Political Studies, Volume 12, Number 1, 1979, pp. 3-27.
  • LAVER, Michael and Norman Schofield, Multiparty Government: The Politics of Coalition in Europe, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor 1998.
  • LIJPHART, Arend, “The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws, 1945-85”, The American Political Science Review, Volume 82, Number 2, 1990, pp. 481-496.
  • ________, Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945-1990, Oxford University Press, 1994.
  • LIPSET, Seymour Martin and Stein Rokkan, Cleavage Structures, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: An Introduction, Free Press, New York 1967.
  • MAINWARING, Scott and Timothy R. Scully, Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford University Press, Stanford 1995.
  • MAIR, Peter, “Comparing Party Systems”, Comparing Democracies 2: New Challenges in the Study of Elections and Voting, (eds.) Lawrence LeDuc, ‎Richard G. Niemi, ‎Pippa Norris, Thousand Oaks, London 2002, pp. 88-107.
  • MÜLLER, Wolfgang C. and Kaare Strøm,“Coalition Governance in Western Europe: An Introduction”, (eds.) Wolfgang C. Müller and Kaare Strøm, Coalition Governance in Western Europe, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2000, pp. 1-31.
  • NETO, Octavio Amorim and Gary W. Cox, “Electoral Institutions, Cleavage Structures, and the Number of Parties”, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 41, Number 1, 1997, pp. 149-174.
  • NEZI, Roula, “Economic Voting Under the Economic Crisis: Evidence from Greece”, Electoral Studies, Volume 31, Number 3, 2012, pp. 498-505.
  • NIKOLAKOPOULOS, Elias, “The Electoral Influence of Political Parties”, in Elections and Political Parties in the 1980s: Evolution and Prospects of the Political System, (eds.) Christos Lyrintzis and Elias Nikolakopoulos, Themelio, Athens 1990, pp. 203-247 (In Greek).
  • NORRIS, Pippa, Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2006.
  • ORDESHOOK, Peter C. and Olga V. Shvetsova, “Ethnic Heterogeneity, District Magnitude and The Number of Parties”, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 38, Number 1, 1994, pp. 100-123.
  • ÖZBUDUN, Ergun, “Seçim Sistemleri ve Türkiye”, Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, Volume 44, Number 1, 1995, pp. 521-539
  • PAPPAS, Takis S., “Winning by Default: The Greek Election of 2009”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 15, Number 2, 2010, pp. 273-287.
  • PENAS, Ignacio. L., “Cleavages and Thresholds: the Political Consequences of Electoral Laws in The Spanish Autonomous Communities, 1980-2000”, Electoral Studies, Volume 23, Number 1, 2004, pp. 23-43.
  • POWELL, G. Bingham, Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence, Harvard University Press, Cambridge 1982.
  • RAE, Douglas W., The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws, Yale University Press, New Haven 1967.
  • RORI, Lamprini, “The 2019 Greek Parliamentary Election: Retour à la Normale”, West European Politics, Volume 43, Number 4, 2019, pp. 1023-1037.
  • SABUNCU, Yavuz, “Seçim Barajları ve Siyasal Sonuçları”, Anayasa Yargısı, Volume 22, Number 1, 2006, pp. 191-197.
  • SARTORI, Giovanni, Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1976.
  • SAYARI, Sabri, “Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 21, Number 2, 2016, pp. 263-280.
  • ________, “The Changing Party System”, in Politics, Parties and Elections in Turkey, (eds.) Sabri Sayarı and Yılmaz Esmer, Lynne Rienner Publications, London 2002, pp. 9-32.
  • TAAGEPERA, Rein and Matthew Soberg Shugart, “Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger’s Mechanical Effect”, American Political Science Review, Volume 87, Number 2, 1993, pp. 455-464.
  • TAŞKIN, Burcu, “The 2019 Provincial Elections in Turkey: AKP’s Struggle to Retain Power Vis-a-Vis a Revitalized CHP”, Regional and Federal Studies, 2021, Volume 31, Number 3, pp. 1-14.
  • ________, “SYRIZA’s Electoral Victory in Greek Thrace: Impact of Muslim Minority Vote in the Changing Political System”, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, Volume 23, Number 2, 2017, pp. 155-181.
  • TAYLOR, Michae and Valentine M. Herman, “Party Systems and Government Stability”, The American Political Science Review, Volume 65, Number 1, 1971, pp. 28-37.
  • TEPEROGLOU, Eftichia and Emmanouil Tsatsanis, “Dealignment, De-legitimation and the Implosion of the Two-Party System in Greece: The Earthquake Election of 6 May 2012”, Journal of Elections, Public Opinions and Parties, Volume 24, Number 2, 2014, pp. 222–242.
  • TSATSANIS, Emmanouil, “The Swift Unravelling: Party System Change and De-Institutionalization in Greece During the Crisis”, Party System Change, the European Crisis and the State of Democracy, (ed.) M. Lisi, Routledge, London and New York, 2018, pp. 115-136.
  • TSATSANIS, Emmanouil, Eftichia Teperoglou and Angelos Seriatos, “Two-partyism Reloaded: Polarisation, Negative Partisanship, and the Return of the Left-right Divide in the Greek Elections of 2019”, South European Society and Politics, Volume 25, Number 3-4, 2020, pp. 503-532.
  • TURAN, İlter, “Türk Siyasi Partilerinde Lider Oligarşisi: Evrimi, Kurumsallaşması ve Sonuçları”, İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, Volume 45, 2011, pp. 1-21.
  • VASILIKI, Georgiadou and Jenny Mavropoulou, “Anti-Establishment Parties in Government: Syriza-Anel Policy-Making Match Between the Radical Left and the Radical Right”, Southeastern Europe, Volume 45, Number 1, 2021, pp. 19-47.
  • VOULGARIS, Yannis and Ilias Nikolakopoulos, “Introduction”, Ο Διπλός Εκλογικός Σεισμός [2012 The Double Earthquake Elections], Themelio, Athens 2014, pp. 1-21.
  • WITZIG, F. Martina and Adrian Vatter, “Electoral Institutions, Social Diversity and Fragmentation of Party Systems: A Reassessment”, Swiss Political Science Review, Volume 24, Number 1, 2018, pp. 1-15.
  • Internet Sources: ABC News, Hata! Köprü başvurusu geçerli değil., (5.6.2021).
  • Bianet, “Turkey to reduce election threshold from 10 to 7 percent”, 1 September 2021, https://bianet.org/english/politics/249626-turkey-to-reduce-election-threshold-from-10-to-7-percent, (6.9.2021).
  • Birgün Newspaper, “CHP’den Anayasa Mahkemesi’ne Seçim Barajı Kaldırılsın Başvurusu”, 3 December 2014, https://www.birgun.net/haber/chp-den-anayasa-mahkemesi-ne-secim-baraji-kaldirilsin-basvurusu-72037, (14.5.2021).
  • CNN Türk, “CHP’den Seçim Barajının Yüzde 5’e Düşürülmesi İçin Yasa Teklifi”, 8 July 2015, https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/chpden-secim-barajinin-yuzde-5e-dusurulmesi-icin-yasa-teklifi, (14.11.2021).
  • Daily Sabah, “Turkey’s new election law likely to lower threshold to 7%”, 11 February 2021, https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/elections/turkeys-new-election-law-likely-to-lower-threshold-to-7, (12.5.2021).
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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Regional Studies
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Burcu Taşkın This is me 0000-0003-4504-2098

Berfin Çakın This is me 0000-0003-2859-4317

Publication Date July 1, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 11 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Taşkın, B., & Çakın, B. (2022). IMPACT OF NATIONWIDE ELECTORAL THRESHOLDS ON PARTY SYSTEM FRAGMENTATION AND DISPROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION IN GREECE AND TURKEY. Balkan Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(1), 233-267. https://doi.org/10.30903/Balkan.1134203

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