Transformation of Carbon Emissions in G-7 Countries within the Framework of International Environmental Agreements

Abstract

This study analyzes the impacts of signed international environmental agreements on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for the period 1990-2023 in the context of the G-7 countries. The main objective of the study is to reveal the structural transformations in emission trends resulting from the regulations developed within the framework of international environmental agreements, particularly the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The dates of regime shifts in the emission series were determined using the Bai-Perron multiple structural break test. The findings indicate that significant breaks occurred during the Kyoto negotiations and implementation period (1997-2005) and after the Paris Agreement (2015-2017). In addition, economic shocks such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis have also affected the effectiveness of environmental policy implementation. Environmental agreements have been partially successful in reducing absolute emissions in the G-7 countries. Their share of total emissions decreased from 40% in 1990 to 20% in 2023. However, differences persist across countries, and the weak binding nature of mechanisms based on flexible commitments leads to varying outcomes in emissions reductions. In this context, the study emphasizes the decisive role of environmental agreements in shaping global emissions policies. It also highlights the need for stronger monitoring mechanisms in the future.

Keywords

• International Environmental Agreements
• Kyoto Protocol
• Paris Agreement
• International Environmental Law
• Energy Law
• CO₂ emissions

ULUSLARARASI ÇEVRE ANLAŞMALARI ÇERÇEVESİNDE G-7 ÜLKELERİNDE KARBON EMİSYONLARININ DÖNÜŞÜMÜ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, G7 ülkeleri bağlamında 1990-2023 dönemi için imzalanan uluslararası çevre anlaşmalarının karbondioksit (CO₂) emisyonları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, özellikle Kyoto Protokolü ve Paris Anlaşması çerçevesinde geliştirilen düzenlemelerden kaynaklanan emisyon eğilimlerindeki yapısal dönüşümleri ortaya çıkarmaktır. Emisyon serilerindeki rejim değişikliklerinin tarihleri, Bai-Perron çoklu yapısal kırılma testi kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Bulgular, Kyoto müzakereleri ve uygulama dönemi (1997-2005) ve Paris Anlaşması sonrasında (2015-2017) önemli kırılmaların meydana geldiğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, küresel finans krizi ve Avrupa borç krizi gibi ekonomik şoklar da çevre politikası uygulamasının etkinliğini etkilemiştir. Çevre anlaşmaları, G7 ülkelerinde mutlak emisyonları azaltmada kısmen başarılı olmuştur. Toplam emisyonlardaki payları 1990'da %40'tan 2023'te %20'ye düştü. Bununla birlikte, ülkeler arasında farklılıklar devam etmekte ve esnek taahhütlere dayalı mekanizmaların zayıf bağlayıcılığı, emisyon azaltımında farklı sonuçlara yol açmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışma, küresel emisyon politikalarının şekillenmesinde çevresel anlaşmaların belirleyici rolünü vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca, gelecekte daha güçlü izleme mekanizmalarına duyulan ihtiyacı da ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Uluslararası Çevre Anlaşmaları
• Kyoto Protokolü
• Paris Anlaşması
• Uluslararası Çevre Hukuku
• Enerji Hukuku
• CO₂ emisyonları

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