Determination of Periodic Changes in Erosion Risk Status of Uğursuyu Basin

Abstract

In this study, the effects of land use changes in the Uğursuyu basin between 2000 and 2019 on erosion risk conditions were analyzed in detail using the ICONA model. In land classification, four main land classes were determined as water, settlement, agriculture-open space and vegetation, and the accuracy of these classes was evaluated by the confusion matrix method. Kappa values were above 80% for both periods, indicating that the classification was quite successful. Water areas increased from 14.86 hectares to 18.05 ha, while settlement areas increased by about 100 ha. However, the proportion of vegetation areas decreased from 84.6% to 72.3%. Soil protection maps were created by overlaying the land class and vegetation cover ratio maps, and in this process, increases were observed in very low and very high soil protection classes, while decreases occurred in medium and high protection classes. The potential erosion risk maps prepared by considering the slope and geological structure of the basin show that 76.5% of the area is in the high and very high erosion risk group. In terms of geological structure, most of the area (80.5%) consists of rocks susceptible to erosion. In the analysis of erosion risk status, no significant change was observed in the low risk classes between 2000 and 2019, while there was a 1% increase in the medium level and a 3.6% decrease in the high level. An increase of 2.54% was recorded in the very high erosion risk class. Land changes and reductions in vegetation cover were the main factors affecting erosion risk. The ICONA model effectively assessed these changes and revealed that the basin has high erosion susceptibility. In conclusion, the findings emphasize the importance of sustainable land management and erosion control strategies. In this context, taking environmental protection measures in cooperation with local governments and communities becomes a critical requirement for maintaining the ecological balance of the region.

Keywords

• Land classification
• erosion risk
• ICONA
• NDVI
• Uğursuyu

Uğursuyu Havzası Erozyon Risk Durumundaki Dönemsel Değişimlerin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Uğursuyu Havzasında 2000 ve 2019 yılları arasında arazi kullanım durumlarında meydana gelen değişikliklerin erozyon risk durumlarına etkileri ICONA (National Institute for Nature Conservation) modeli kullanılarak detaylı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Arazi sınıflandırmasında, su, yerleşim, tarım-açıklık ve bitki örtüsü olmak üzere dört ana arazi sınıfı belirlenmiş ve bu sınıfların doğruluğu hata matrisi yönt-emiyle değerlendirilmiştir. Kappa değerleri, her iki dönem için %80’in üzerinde bulunmuş, bu da sınıflandırmanın oldukça başarılı olduğunu göstermiştir. Su alanları 14,86 ha’dan 18,05 ha’a yükselirken, yerleşim alanlarında yaklaşık 100 ha’lık bir artış gözlemlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte, bitki örtüsü alanlarının oranı %84,6’dan %72,3’e düşmüştür. Toprak koruma haritaları, arazi sınıfı ile bitki örtüsü oranları hari-talarının ilişkilendirilmesiyle oluşturulmuş ve bu süreçte çok düşük ile çok yüksek toprak koruma sınıflarında artışlar gözlemlenirken, orta ve yüksek koruma sınıflarında azalmalar meydana gelmiştir. Havzanın eğim ve jeolojik yapısı dikkate alınarak hazırlanan potansiyel erozyon risk haritaları, alanın %76,5’inin yüksek ve çok yüksek erozyon riski grubunda bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Jeolojik yapı olarak alanın büyük kısmı (%80,5) erozyona duyarlı kayaçlardan oluşmaktadır. Erozyon risk durumları açısından yapılan analizlerde, 2000 ve 2019 yılları arasında düşük risk sınıflarında önemli bir değişim gözlemlenmezken, orta seviyede %1’lik bir artış ve yüksek seviyede %3,6’lık bir azalma meydana gelmiştir. Çok yüksek erozyon riski sınıfında ise %2,54'lük bir artış kaydedilmiştir. Arazi değişimleri ve bitki örtüsü oranlarındaki azalmalar, erozyon riskini etkileyen temel faktörler olarak öne çıkmıştır. ICONA modeli, bu değişimleri etkili bir şekilde değerlendirmiş ve havzanın yüksek erozyon duyarlılığına sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Sonuç olarak, elde edilen bulgular, sürdürülebilir arazi yönetimi ve erozyon kontrolünün önemini vurgulamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, yerel yönetimlerin ve toplulukların iş birliği ile çevresel koruma önlemlerinin alınması, bölgenin ekolojik dengesinin korunması açısından kritik bir ger-eklilik haline gelmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arazi sınıflandırması
• erozyon risk
• ICONA
• NDVI
• Uğursuyu

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