CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS

Mertol Ertuğrul; Tuğrul Varol; Halil Barış Özel

TR

CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS

Abstract

The paper deals with the changes of annual temperatures and precipitations in West Black Sea Region of Turkey. The of climatic features of the region for the forest growth is analyzed by the distribution of different climatic types of years (CTYs) and classes according to the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 1901 – 2009. Based on the obtained trends of temperature and precipitation curves for 43 years, the future climate changes are predicted. According to the survey it was found that in almost all studied sites the climate was dominated by the warm - dry climatic type. The established trend of increasing of average annual temperatures and reducing of annual precipitations will expose a high risk to the forest growth and economy in the region. Certain basic recommendations for forest management are given by the authors.

Keywords

temperature precipitation,trend curve model,climate type of year,SPI,West Black Sea Region

References

ANON1. 2007. (1st National Climate Change Declaration). ANON2. 2013. (TÜRKİYE İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ 5.BİLDİRİMİ 2013). T.C. Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı Birleşmiş Milletler Kalkınma Programı (UNDP). ANON3. 2011. (DMİ 2010 Yılı İklim Verilerinin Değerlendirmesi). ANON4. 2012. (DMİ Türkiye 2011 Yılı İklim Değerlendirmesi 2012). Bahadır, M. 2011. Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde sıcaklık ve yağışın gelecekteki eğilimleri ve olası sonuçları. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, cilt: 4 sayı: 19. CRU – TS http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data/item/55-cru-ts-30-climate-database Demir, Kılıç, G., Coskun, M., Sümer, U.M. 2008. Türkiye’de maksimum, minimum ve ortalama hava sıcaklıkları ile yagıs dizilerinde gözlenen degisiklikler ve egilimler. TMMOB _klim Degisimi Sempozyumu, Bildiriler Kitabı. TMMOB adına TMMOB Meteoroloji Mühendisleri Odası, 13-14 Mart 2008, Ankara: 69-84. Douglas N., J. M. Restrepo, C. Tebaldi. 2008. Uncertainty in Climate Predictions. American Mathematical Society, Mathematics Awareness Month. Lyubenova, M. 2014. Survey about Climatic Type of Years and European Black Pine Eustress. Indian Journal of Applied Research. www.ijar.in Naresh K., C. Murthy, M. Sai, P. Roy. 2009. On the use of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought intensity assessment. Meteorol. Appl. 16: 381–389. Türkes, M., U. Sümer, M. ve Demir. 2002. Türkiye’nin günlük ortalama, maksimum ve minimum hava sıcakları ile sıcaklık genisligindeki egilimler ve degisiklikler. Prof. Dr. Sırrı Erinç Anısına Klimatoloji Çalıstayı 2002, Bildiriler Kitabı, Ege Üniversitesi Coğrafya Bölümü, 11-13 Nisan 2002, İzmir: 89-106. Türkeş, M., T. Koç, F. Sariş. 2007. Türkiye’nin Yağiş Toplami ve Yoğunluğu Dizilerindeki Değişikliklerin ve Eğilimlerin Zamansal ve Alansal Çözümlemesi. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 2007, 5 (1): 57-73. URL1 2014. http://www.epsrc.ac.uk/skills/students/centres/2013cdtexercise/Pages/mathsciences.aspx Mackenzie, D. 2008. Mathematics of climate change, published by the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute. URL2 2014. The Prediction of Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation of Mediterranean Region. http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/id/25316453/.

Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

-

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mertol Ertuğrul This is me

Tuğrul Varol This is me

Halil Barış Özel This is me

Publication Date

December 15, 2014

Submission Date

December 15, 2014

Acceptance Date

-

Published in Issue

Year 2014 Volume: 16 Number: 23

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ertuğrul, M., Varol, T., & Özel, H. B. (2014). CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(23), 35-43. https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET

AMA

1.Ertuğrul M, Varol T, Özel HB. CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014;16(23):35-43. https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET

Chicago

Ertuğrul, Mertol, Tuğrul Varol, and Halil Barış Özel. 2014. “CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS”. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 16 (23): 35-43. https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET.

EndNote

Ertuğrul M, Varol T, Özel HB (December 1, 2014) CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 16 23 35–43.

IEEE

[1]M. Ertuğrul, T. Varol, and H. B. Özel, “CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS”, Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 16, no. 23, pp. 35–43, Dec. 2014, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET

ISNAD

Ertuğrul, Mertol - Varol, Tuğrul - Özel, Halil Barış. “CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS”. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 16/23 (December 1, 2014): 35-43. https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET.

JAMA

1.Ertuğrul M, Varol T, Özel HB. CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014;16:35–43.

MLA

Ertuğrul, Mertol, et al. “CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS”. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 16, no. 23, Dec. 2014, pp. 35-43, https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET.

Vancouver

1.Mertol Ertuğrul, Tuğrul Varol, Halil Barış Özel. CLIMATE CHANGES IN PROSPECT FOR THE WEST BLACK SEA FORESTS. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi [Internet]. 2014 Dec. 1;16(23):35-43. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA98JX49ET