The Effect of Global Climate Change on Some Climate Parameters and Climate Types in Bolu

Abstract

Global climate change, the most crucial problem today, directly or indirectly affects all living things globally. Within the scope of this study, the current situation and the situation in 2050 and 2070 were compared using the RCP 45 and RCP 85 scenarios of the changes that may occur in the temperature, precipitation, and climate structure of the Bolu province due to global climate change. In this process, possible changes in climate types that may occur were determined according to the climate classification of De Martonne, Lang, and Emberger, depending on temperature and precipitation. As a result, the temperature, precipitation, and climate classes will change significantly depending on temperature and precipitation in Bolu province in the future, and this change will be in the form of a temperature increase. It is predicted that this situation may cause very drastic changes in the climate type. As a result, according to the De Martonne climate classification, today, a humid climate prevails in approximately 43.94% of the province and very humid in 27.16%. In 2070, according to the RCP 45 scenario, approximately 33.49% of the province will be humid, and 17.71% will have a very humid climate, while according to the RCP 85 scenario, approximately 35.21 and 8.97% of the province will prevail under a humid and very humid climate. Similarly, according to the Lang climate classification, while arid climate prevails in only 0.71% of Bolu today, this rate will increase to 18.17 and 30.41 % according to the RCP 45 and 85 scenarios in 2070, respectively.

Keywords

• Bolu
• climate change
• RCP 45
• RCP 85

Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Bolu’da Bazı İklim Parametreleri ve İklim Tiplerine Etkisi

Abstract

Günümüzün en önemli sorunu olan küresel iklim değişikliğinin dünyadaki tüm canlılar üzerinde doğrudan ya da dolaylı etkisi vardır. Bu çalışma kapsamında Bolu ilinin küresel iklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak sıcaklık, yağış ve bunlara bağlı olarak da iklim yapısında meydana gelebilecek değişikliklerin RCP 45 ve RCP 85 senaryoları kullanılarak günümüzdeki durum ile 2050 ve 2070 yıllarındaki durum karşılaştırılmış, bu süreçte sıcaklık ve yağış ile bunlara bağlı olarak De Martonne, Lang ve Emberger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre iklim tiplerindeki meydana gelebilecek değişiklikler belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonuçları gelecek yıllarda Bolu il genelinde sıcaklık, yağış ve bunlara bağlı olarak iklim sınıflarında önemli ölçüde değişiklik olacağını göstermektedir. Bu değişikliğin özellikle sıcaklık artışı şeklinde olacağı ve bu durumun iklim tipinde çok sert değişikliklere sebep olacağı öngörülmektedir. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre De Martonne iklim sınıflandırmasına göre günümüzde il genelinin yaklaşık %43,94’ünde nemli ve %27,16’sında çok nemli iklim hüküm sürerken 2070 yılında RCP 45 senaryosuna göre ilin yaklaşık %33,49’u nemli ve %17,71’inde çok nemli, RCP 85 senaryosuna göre ise ilin yaklaşık %35,21’i nemli ve %8,97’si de çok nemli iklimin etkisi altında olacaktır. Benzer şekilde Lang iklim sınıflandırmasına göre günümüzde Bolu’nun sadece %0,71’inde kurak iklim hüküm sürerken 2070 yılında bu oran RCP 45 senaryosuna göre %18,17 ve RCP 85 senaryosuna göre ise %30,41 seviyesine çıkacaktır.

Keywords

• Bolu
• iklim değişikliği
• RCP 45
• RCP 85

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