Determining the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Cover along with Some Socio-Economic Factors in the Olur Planning Unit (Turkey)

Abstract

Because forest cover changes directly affect the sustainability of the forest value, they should be observed carefully. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of land use/land cover change (LULCC) along with the effects of some socio-economic factors such as forest crime rates, rural population change, and annual gross national product (GNP) on spatiotemporal change of forest dynamics between 1970 and 2015 in the Olur forest planning unit using ArcGIS software and Patch Analyst extension.The results showed that high forest areas increased by 47.14% between 1970 and 2015. Coppice stands completely transitioned to other cover types in 2015 due to the changing of management policy in the case study area. Based on landscape pattern, the total number of patches (NP) increased by 50.07%, and mean patch size (MPS) decreased by 31.88% during the period. Results indicated that the forest ecosystem became more sensitive as it turned into a more spatially fragmented structure, making continued efforts to maintain biodiversity and insure sustainability a challenge. Depending on the decrease in the rural population and economic growth, there was a serious decrease in forest crime rates. This study has shown that socio-economic factors can be effective on landscape dynamics besides management activities.

Keywords

• Forest management
• land use/land cover change
• forest dynamics
• landscape metrics
• socio-economic factors

Olur Planlama Biriminde (Türkiye) Arazi Örtüsünün Bazı Sosyo-Ekonomik Faktörlerle Birlikte Konumsal-Zamansal Dinamiklerinin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Orman örtüsünde meydana gelen değişimler orman fonksiyonlarının sürdürülebilirliği üzerinde doğrudan etkili olduğu için dikkatli bir biçimde gözlemlenmelidir. Bu çalışmada, Olur Orman İşletme Şefliği’nde 1970-2015 yılları arasında arazi kullanım/arazi örtüsünde meydana gelen zamansal ve konumsal değişimler; ArcGIS yazılım ve Patch Analizi eklentisi kullanılarak ve orman suç oranları, kırsal nüfus değişimi ve gayri safi milli hasıla değerleri gibi bazı sosyo-ekonomik faktörler dikkate alınarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, koru ormanlarında 1970-2015 yılları arasında %47.14’lük bir artış olduğunu ve uygulanan yönetim politikasındaki değişikliğin etkisiyle baltalık alanların 2015 yılı itibariyle alanda bulunmadığı belirlenmiştir. Patch analizi sonuçlarına göre ise toplam parça sayısı %50.07 oranında artarken ortalama parça büyüklüğü de %31.88 oranında azalmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, orman ekosisteminin konumsal olarak parçalanmış bir yapıya dönüştüğü için daha hassas hale geldiğini ve biyolojik çeşitliliği korumak ve sürdürülebilirliği sağlamak için sürekli çaba sarf edilmesi gerektiğini göstermiştir. Kırsal nüfusun azalmasına ve ekonomik büyümeye bağlı olarak orman suç oranlarında ciddi bir düşüş yaşanmıştır. Bu çalışma amenajman aktivitelerinin yanı sıra sosyo-ekonomik faktörlerin de orman dinamikleri üzerinde etkili olabileceğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Orman amenajmanı
• arazi kullanım/arazi örtüsü değişimi
• orman dinamiği
• landscape ölçütleri
• sosyo-ekonomik faktörler

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