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ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Year 2017, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 37 - 51, 30.06.2017

Hakan Sarıbaş Uğur Ursavaş

Abstract

Orta gelir tuzağı, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından ciddi bir problem olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Orta gelir tuzağı, hızlı bir büyüme sonrası düşük gelir seviyesinden orta gelir seviyesine ulaşan ülkelerin, büyüme yavaşlaması sonrası yüksek gelir grubuna geçemediği durumu ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Eichengreen vd.’nin (2011) çalışmaları çerçevesinde, 1957-2007 yılları arasında kişi başına düşen GSYİH verisi kullanılarak orta gelir tuzağının hangi gelir seviyesinde ortaya çıktığı ve Türkiye’nin tuzakta olup olmadığı analiz edilmektedir. Analiz bulgularına göre orta gelir tuzağı, 7.200 dolar seviyesinde ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu sonuca göre Türkiye orta gelir tuzağını aşmış gözükmektedir.

Keywords

Orta Gelir Tuzağı Büyüme Yavaşlaması Lewis Dönüm Noktası.

References

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Otaviano Canuto ve Michael Jelenic. (2012). “Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps”. Economic Premise 98:1-7.
  • Aiyar, Shekhar, Romain Duval, Damien Puy, Yiqun Wu ve Longmei Zhang (2013). “ Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap”. IMF Working Paper 98:1-63.
  • Aoki, Masahiko (2011). “The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan”. Asian Development Bank Institute 340:1-32.
  • Bulman, David, Maya Eden ve Ha Nguyen. (2014). “Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth: Is There a Middle Income Trap”. Policy Research Working Paper 7104:1-36.
  • Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park ve Kwanho Shin. (2011). “When Fast Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”. NBER Working Paper Series 16919.
  • Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park ve Kwanho Shin (2013). “Growth Slowdown Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap”. NBER Working Paper Series 18673.
  • Fang, Yingjie ve Yang Yao (2015). “The Middle-Income Trap and China’s Growth Prospects”. Deepening Reform for China’s Long Term Growth and Development. Eds. L. Song vd. Canberra: Australian National University Press. 133-158.
  • Felipe, Jesus, Arnelyn Abdon ve Utsav Kumar (2012). “Tracking the Middle-income Trap:What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”. The Levy Economics Institute 715. Fraser Institute, https://www.fraserinstitute.org/, 24 Eylül 2016’da erişildi
  • Fryer, David ve Nicolette Cattaneo (2014). “Structural Change, Productivity and the Middle-Income Trap: South Africa in Comparative Perspective” BRICS Academic Forum 1-15.
  • Garrett, Geoffrey (2004). “Globalization’s Missing Middle”. Foreign Affairs 83(6):84-96.
  • Gill, Indermit S. ve Homi Kharas (2007). “An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth”. The World Bank 1(39986):1-365.
  • Gill, Indermit S. ve Homi Kharas (2015). “The Middle-Incıme Trap Turns Ten”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7403:1-27.
  • Glawe, Linda ve Helmut Wagner (2016).“China in the Middle-Income Trap?,” Munich Personal Repec Archive 1-47. http://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/, 13 Ekim 2016’da erişildi
  • Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer ve David N. Weil (1992). “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2):407-437.
  • Ohno, Kenichi (2009). “The Middle Income Trap Implications for Industrialization Strategies in East Asia and Africa”. Grips Development Forum
  • Pamuk, Şevket (2016). Türkiye’nin 200 Yıllık İktisadi Tarihi. İstanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Paus, Eva (2014). “Latin America and The Middle-Income Trap”. Financial for Development Series 250:1-57. Penn World Table, http://datacentre2.chass.utoronto.ca/pwt/, 5 Ekim 2016’da erişildi
  • Tho, Tran Van (2013). “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations”. Asian Development Bank Institute 421:1-31.
  • Woo, Wing Thye (2012). “China Meets the Middle-income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 4(10): 313-336 World Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org, 18 Ekim 2016’da erişildi
  • Xu, Zhiwei (2016). “Lecture Notes 1: Solow Growth Model,” http://mis.acem.sjtu.edu.cn/ueditor/jsp/upload/file/20160221/1455993278579012666.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.06.2016).
  • Yeldan, Erinç, Kamil Taşçı, Ebru Voyvoda ve Mehmet Emin Özsan (2012). “Orta Gelir Tuzağı’ndan Çıkış: Hangi Türkiye? Makro/Bölgesel/Sektörel Analiz”. Türk Girişim ve İş Dünyası Konfederasyonu 1:1-163.

Year 2017, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 37 - 51, 30.06.2017

Hakan Sarıbaş Uğur Ursavaş

Abstract

References

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Otaviano Canuto ve Michael Jelenic. (2012). “Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps”. Economic Premise 98:1-7.
  • Aiyar, Shekhar, Romain Duval, Damien Puy, Yiqun Wu ve Longmei Zhang (2013). “ Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap”. IMF Working Paper 98:1-63.
  • Aoki, Masahiko (2011). “The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan”. Asian Development Bank Institute 340:1-32.
  • Bulman, David, Maya Eden ve Ha Nguyen. (2014). “Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth: Is There a Middle Income Trap”. Policy Research Working Paper 7104:1-36.
  • Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park ve Kwanho Shin. (2011). “When Fast Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”. NBER Working Paper Series 16919.
  • Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park ve Kwanho Shin (2013). “Growth Slowdown Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap”. NBER Working Paper Series 18673.
  • Fang, Yingjie ve Yang Yao (2015). “The Middle-Income Trap and China’s Growth Prospects”. Deepening Reform for China’s Long Term Growth and Development. Eds. L. Song vd. Canberra: Australian National University Press. 133-158.
  • Felipe, Jesus, Arnelyn Abdon ve Utsav Kumar (2012). “Tracking the Middle-income Trap:What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”. The Levy Economics Institute 715. Fraser Institute, https://www.fraserinstitute.org/, 24 Eylül 2016’da erişildi
  • Fryer, David ve Nicolette Cattaneo (2014). “Structural Change, Productivity and the Middle-Income Trap: South Africa in Comparative Perspective” BRICS Academic Forum 1-15.
  • Garrett, Geoffrey (2004). “Globalization’s Missing Middle”. Foreign Affairs 83(6):84-96.
  • Gill, Indermit S. ve Homi Kharas (2007). “An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth”. The World Bank 1(39986):1-365.
  • Gill, Indermit S. ve Homi Kharas (2015). “The Middle-Incıme Trap Turns Ten”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7403:1-27.
  • Glawe, Linda ve Helmut Wagner (2016).“China in the Middle-Income Trap?,” Munich Personal Repec Archive 1-47. http://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/, 13 Ekim 2016’da erişildi
  • Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer ve David N. Weil (1992). “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2):407-437.
  • Ohno, Kenichi (2009). “The Middle Income Trap Implications for Industrialization Strategies in East Asia and Africa”. Grips Development Forum
  • Pamuk, Şevket (2016). Türkiye’nin 200 Yıllık İktisadi Tarihi. İstanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Paus, Eva (2014). “Latin America and The Middle-Income Trap”. Financial for Development Series 250:1-57. Penn World Table, http://datacentre2.chass.utoronto.ca/pwt/, 5 Ekim 2016’da erişildi
  • Tho, Tran Van (2013). “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations”. Asian Development Bank Institute 421:1-31.
  • Woo, Wing Thye (2012). “China Meets the Middle-income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 4(10): 313-336 World Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org, 18 Ekim 2016’da erişildi
  • Xu, Zhiwei (2016). “Lecture Notes 1: Solow Growth Model,” http://mis.acem.sjtu.edu.cn/ueditor/jsp/upload/file/20160221/1455993278579012666.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.06.2016).
  • Yeldan, Erinç, Kamil Taşçı, Ebru Voyvoda ve Mehmet Emin Özsan (2012). “Orta Gelir Tuzağı’ndan Çıkış: Hangi Türkiye? Makro/Bölgesel/Sektörel Analiz”. Türk Girişim ve İş Dünyası Konfederasyonu 1:1-163.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Reasearch Articles
Authors

Hakan Sarıbaş

Uğur Ursavaş This is me

Publication Date June 30, 2017
Submission Date January 9, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 17 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Sarıbaş, H., & Ursavaş, U. (2017). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(2), 37-51.
AMA Sarıbaş H, Ursavaş U. ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA. ASBİ. June 2017;17(2):37-51.
Chicago Sarıbaş, Hakan, and Uğur Ursavaş. “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA”. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 17, no. 2 (June 2017): 37-51.
EndNote Sarıbaş H, Ursavaş U (June 1, 2017) ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 17 2 37–51.
IEEE H. Sarıbaş and U. Ursavaş, “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA”, ASBİ, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 37–51, 2017.
ISNAD Sarıbaş, Hakan - Ursavaş, Uğur. “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA”. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 17/2 (June 2017), 37-51.
JAMA Sarıbaş H, Ursavaş U. ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA. ASBİ. 2017;17:37–51.
MLA Sarıbaş, Hakan and Uğur Ursavaş. “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA”. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, vol. 17, no. 2, 2017, pp. 37-51.
Vancouver Sarıbaş H, Ursavaş U. ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA. ASBİ. 2017;17(2):37-51.

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