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Küresel Ekonomik Krizin Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2013, Volume: 16 Issue: 29, 163 - 188, 01.06.2013

İsmet Göçer

Abstract

Problem Durumu: Son küresel ekonomik kriz, ABD’de ipotekli konut piyasasında 2006 yılı ortalarında başlamış, finansal piyasaları ve reel sektörü de etkisi altına başlamıştır. Eylül 2008’den itibaren dünyaya geneline yayılmıştır. Krizde dünya ekonomisi %2.3 oranında küçülmüş, ihracat azalmış, işsizlik oranları artmıştır.Araştırmanın Amacı: Bu çalışmada, 2008 küresel ekonomik krizinin seçilmiş ülke ekonomileri üzerindeki etkileri, 2001-2010 dönemi verileri kullanılarak incelenmiştir.Yöntem: Panel birim kök testi ve panel veri analizi yöntemleri.Bulgular ve Sonuçlar: Analiz sonucunda elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre; ülkelerin ekonomik büyümelerini en çok etkileyen faktör, özel tüketim harcamalarıdır. Krizin etkisi negatif ve istatistikî olarak anlamlıdır.Jel Kodları: E21, E44, F43, G01

Keywords

Küresel Kriz Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Veri Analizi

References

  • Akgüç Ö. (2009). Kriz Nedeni ve Çıkış Yolları. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 42.
  • Altuğ S. (2009). Kriz, Dünya ve Türkiye. Tisk Akademi, Özel Sayı – II.
  • Ateş D. (2010). Küresel Ekonomik Kriz Devlet ve Dış Politika. Uluslararası İnsan Bilimleri Dergisi, 7 (1), 912-937.
  • Ateş D. (2011). Ekonomik Kriz Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Küreselleşmenin Geleceği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 12 (1), 1-16.
  • Arzova S. B. (2009). Küresel Ekonomik Krizden Çıkış Yolları. İstanbul Kültür Üni- versitesi - Küresel Mali Kriz ve Çözüm Yolları Sempozyumu, 15 Nisan.
  • Bai J.and Ng S. (2004). A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration. Econo- metrica, 72, 1127-1178.
  • Baltagi B. H. (2001). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. (2nd ed). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Berberoğlu B. (2011). 2008 Global Krizinin Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği’ndeki Etkile- rinin Kümeleme Analizi ile İncelenmesi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 105–130.
  • Beyaert A. and Camacho M. (2008). TAR Panel Unit Root Tests And Real Conver- gence: An Application to the EU Enlargement Process. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 668-681.
  • Blanchard O. J., Faruqee H., Das M., Forbes K. J. and Tesar L. L. (2010). The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries. Brookings Papers on Eco- nomic Activity, Spring, 263-323
  • Bocutoğlu E. ve Ekinci A. (2009). Genel Teori, Küresel Krizler ve Yeniden Maliye Politikası. Maliye Dergisi, 156.
  • Bordo M., Eichengreen B., Klingebiel, D. and Martinez-Peria M. S. (2001). Is the Cri- sis Problem Growning More Severe? Economic Policy, 32, 53-82.
  • Breuer B., Mcnown R. and Wallace M. (2002). Series-Specific Unit Root Test With Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64, 527–546.
  • Breitung J. (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. in B. Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161-178.
  • Choi I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests For Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229–272.
  • Drukker D. M. (2003). Testing For Serial Correlation in Linear Panel Data Models. Stata Journal, 3(2), 168-177.
  • Eğilmez M. (2009). Küresel Finans Krizi. (5. Basım), Ankara: Remzi Yayıncılık.
  • Erdönmez A. P. (2009). Küresel Kriz ve Ülkeler Tarafından Alınan Önlemler Krono- lojisi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 68, 85.
  • Ertuna Ö. (2009). Dünya Ekonomik Krizi ve Türkiye’nin Durumu. Muhasebe ve Fi- nansman Dergisi, 41.
  • European Communities. (2009). Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequen- ces and Responses. <http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication15887_en.pdf . (25.12.2011).
  • FED. (2011). The Financial Crisis A Timeline of Events and Policy Actions. <http:// timeline.stlouisfed.org/ , (28.12.2011).
  • Felton A. and Reinhart K. (2008). The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Cen- tury. A VoxEU.org Publication.
  • Gençtürk M. (2009). Finansal Kriz Dönemlerinde Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilim- ler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(1), 127-136.
  • Gençtürk M., Dalğar H. ve Yılmaz T. (2011). Finansal Krizlerin İşletmelerin Finans- man Kararlarına Etkileri: İMKB’de İşlem Gören İşletmeler Üzerinde Bir Araş- tırma. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 187-207.
  • Greene W.H. (2003). Econometric Analysis, (5th Ed). Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Pren- tice- Hall.
  • Guillén M. G. (2009). The Global Economic & Financial Crisis: A Timeline. http:// unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/apcity/unpan033507.pdf, (27.12.2011).
  • Greenspan A. (2010). The Crisis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Spring, 201-261.
  • Gujarati D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill. (3rd Ed.). İstanbul: Lite- ratür Yayıncılık.
  • Gurria A. (2009). Open Markets in a Time of Crisis. <www.oecd.org/document/54/0,3343,en_2649_34487_42320054_1_1_1_1,00.html. (22.12.2011).
  • Hadri K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels. Econometrics Jo- urnal, 3,148-161.
  • Hepaktan C. E. ve Çınar S. (2011). Mali Krizler ve Son Mali Krizin (2008) Reel Sek- töre Etkileri. Dumlupınar Ün. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 30, 155-168.
  • Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (1997). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Mimeo, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots İn Heterogenous Pa- nels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • IMF. (2009). World Economic Outlook, January, 28.
  • Kibritçioğlu A. (2010). Effects of Global Financial Crisis on Turkey. International Conference on The Social Market Economy and Its Perception in Islam. Sep- tember 23-24, Ankara.
  • Levin A. Lin C. and Chu J. (2002). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1: 24.
  • Maddala G.S and Wu S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Pa- nel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
  • Minibaş T. (2010). Küresel Krizin Finans Sektörüne Yansımaları. <http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/18994067/1868420940/name/13.pdf (22.12.2011).
  • Nanto D. K. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications. Congressional Research Service, 7-5700, RL34742. <http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/ misc/RL34742.pdf , (23.12.2011).
  • OECD. (2009). Globalisation and Emerging Economies. Policy Brief, March.
  • Özatay F. (2009). Finansal Krizler ve Türkiye. İstanbul: Doğan Kitap.
  • Özdemir A. ve Göçer İ. (2011). Türkiye’de Krizlerin Makroekonomik Değişkenlere Etkileri: VAR Analizi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(560), 57- 72.
  • Pesaran H. (2006). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Cambridge University ,Working Paper, No:0346.
  • Reinhart C. R. and Rogoff K. S. (2008). The Aftermatch of Financial Crisis. Ameri- can Economic Association, San Fransisco, <http://www.economics.harvard.edu/ files/faculty/51_Aftermath.pdf , (26.12.2011).
  • Sanders A. (2008). The Subprime Crisis and Its Role in the Financial Crisis. Journal of Housing Economics,17.
  • Schneider F. and Kirchgassner G. (2009). Financial and World Economic Crisis: What Did Economist Contribute ?. Public Choice, 140.
  • Shiller R.J. (2010). A Crisis of Understanding. <http://www.projectsyndicate.org/commentary/shiller70/English (21.12.2011)
  • Somel C. (2009). İktisadi Buhran ve Sermaye Birikimi. Tes-İş Dergisi, 80-83, Mart.
  • Stiglitz J.E. (2008) The Fruit of Hypocrisy. currency.html>. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/16/economics.wallstreet.globalcurrency.html (21.12.2011).
  • Tarı R. (2011). Ekonometri. (7. Basım), İstanbul: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Taylor M. and Sarno L. (1998). The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period. Journal of International Economics. 46, 281-312.
  • Weeks J. (2009). The Impact of The Global Fınancıal Crisis on The Economy of Sierra Leone. A Report For Undp Freetown and the Ministry of Finance And Economic Development. Republic of Sierra Leone. Country Study. 18, September.
  • Wooldridge J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Effects of the Global Economic Crisis: Panel Data Analysis

Year 2013, Volume: 16 Issue: 29, 163 - 188, 01.06.2013

İsmet Göçer

Abstract

State of the Problem: Recent economic crisis started in USA mortgage markets in mid 2006 and affected financial markets and real sector. It has spread all over the world from September 2008. World economy shrunk by 2.3%, exports declined and unemployment rates have increased during the crisis.Purpose of the Study: In this study, effects of 2008 global economic crisis on the selected country economies was analyzed using 2001-2010 periods’ annual data.Method: Panel unit root test and panel data analysis methods.Findings and Conclusions: According to the findings obtained from the empirical analysis; factors that most affect countries’ economic growth is private consumption expenditures. Effects of crisis are negatively and statistically significant Jel Codes: E21, E44, F43, G01.

Keywords

Key Words: Global Crisis Economic Growth Panel Data Analysis.

References

  • Akgüç Ö. (2009). Kriz Nedeni ve Çıkış Yolları. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 42.
  • Altuğ S. (2009). Kriz, Dünya ve Türkiye. Tisk Akademi, Özel Sayı – II.
  • Ateş D. (2010). Küresel Ekonomik Kriz Devlet ve Dış Politika. Uluslararası İnsan Bilimleri Dergisi, 7 (1), 912-937.
  • Ateş D. (2011). Ekonomik Kriz Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Küreselleşmenin Geleceği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 12 (1), 1-16.
  • Arzova S. B. (2009). Küresel Ekonomik Krizden Çıkış Yolları. İstanbul Kültür Üni- versitesi - Küresel Mali Kriz ve Çözüm Yolları Sempozyumu, 15 Nisan.
  • Bai J.and Ng S. (2004). A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration. Econo- metrica, 72, 1127-1178.
  • Baltagi B. H. (2001). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. (2nd ed). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Berberoğlu B. (2011). 2008 Global Krizinin Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği’ndeki Etkile- rinin Kümeleme Analizi ile İncelenmesi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 105–130.
  • Beyaert A. and Camacho M. (2008). TAR Panel Unit Root Tests And Real Conver- gence: An Application to the EU Enlargement Process. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 668-681.
  • Blanchard O. J., Faruqee H., Das M., Forbes K. J. and Tesar L. L. (2010). The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries. Brookings Papers on Eco- nomic Activity, Spring, 263-323
  • Bocutoğlu E. ve Ekinci A. (2009). Genel Teori, Küresel Krizler ve Yeniden Maliye Politikası. Maliye Dergisi, 156.
  • Bordo M., Eichengreen B., Klingebiel, D. and Martinez-Peria M. S. (2001). Is the Cri- sis Problem Growning More Severe? Economic Policy, 32, 53-82.
  • Breuer B., Mcnown R. and Wallace M. (2002). Series-Specific Unit Root Test With Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64, 527–546.
  • Breitung J. (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. in B. Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161-178.
  • Choi I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests For Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229–272.
  • Drukker D. M. (2003). Testing For Serial Correlation in Linear Panel Data Models. Stata Journal, 3(2), 168-177.
  • Eğilmez M. (2009). Küresel Finans Krizi. (5. Basım), Ankara: Remzi Yayıncılık.
  • Erdönmez A. P. (2009). Küresel Kriz ve Ülkeler Tarafından Alınan Önlemler Krono- lojisi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 68, 85.
  • Ertuna Ö. (2009). Dünya Ekonomik Krizi ve Türkiye’nin Durumu. Muhasebe ve Fi- nansman Dergisi, 41.
  • European Communities. (2009). Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequen- ces and Responses. <http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication15887_en.pdf . (25.12.2011).
  • FED. (2011). The Financial Crisis A Timeline of Events and Policy Actions. <http:// timeline.stlouisfed.org/ , (28.12.2011).
  • Felton A. and Reinhart K. (2008). The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Cen- tury. A VoxEU.org Publication.
  • Gençtürk M. (2009). Finansal Kriz Dönemlerinde Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilim- ler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(1), 127-136.
  • Gençtürk M., Dalğar H. ve Yılmaz T. (2011). Finansal Krizlerin İşletmelerin Finans- man Kararlarına Etkileri: İMKB’de İşlem Gören İşletmeler Üzerinde Bir Araş- tırma. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 187-207.
  • Greene W.H. (2003). Econometric Analysis, (5th Ed). Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Pren- tice- Hall.
  • Guillén M. G. (2009). The Global Economic & Financial Crisis: A Timeline. http:// unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/apcity/unpan033507.pdf, (27.12.2011).
  • Greenspan A. (2010). The Crisis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Spring, 201-261.
  • Gujarati D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill. (3rd Ed.). İstanbul: Lite- ratür Yayıncılık.
  • Gurria A. (2009). Open Markets in a Time of Crisis. <www.oecd.org/document/54/0,3343,en_2649_34487_42320054_1_1_1_1,00.html. (22.12.2011).
  • Hadri K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels. Econometrics Jo- urnal, 3,148-161.
  • Hepaktan C. E. ve Çınar S. (2011). Mali Krizler ve Son Mali Krizin (2008) Reel Sek- töre Etkileri. Dumlupınar Ün. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 30, 155-168.
  • Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (1997). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Mimeo, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots İn Heterogenous Pa- nels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • IMF. (2009). World Economic Outlook, January, 28.
  • Kibritçioğlu A. (2010). Effects of Global Financial Crisis on Turkey. International Conference on The Social Market Economy and Its Perception in Islam. Sep- tember 23-24, Ankara.
  • Levin A. Lin C. and Chu J. (2002). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1: 24.
  • Maddala G.S and Wu S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Pa- nel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
  • Minibaş T. (2010). Küresel Krizin Finans Sektörüne Yansımaları. <http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/18994067/1868420940/name/13.pdf (22.12.2011).
  • Nanto D. K. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications. Congressional Research Service, 7-5700, RL34742. <http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/ misc/RL34742.pdf , (23.12.2011).
  • OECD. (2009). Globalisation and Emerging Economies. Policy Brief, March.
  • Özatay F. (2009). Finansal Krizler ve Türkiye. İstanbul: Doğan Kitap.
  • Özdemir A. ve Göçer İ. (2011). Türkiye’de Krizlerin Makroekonomik Değişkenlere Etkileri: VAR Analizi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(560), 57- 72.
  • Pesaran H. (2006). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Cambridge University ,Working Paper, No:0346.
  • Reinhart C. R. and Rogoff K. S. (2008). The Aftermatch of Financial Crisis. Ameri- can Economic Association, San Fransisco, <http://www.economics.harvard.edu/ files/faculty/51_Aftermath.pdf , (26.12.2011).
  • Sanders A. (2008). The Subprime Crisis and Its Role in the Financial Crisis. Journal of Housing Economics,17.
  • Schneider F. and Kirchgassner G. (2009). Financial and World Economic Crisis: What Did Economist Contribute ?. Public Choice, 140.
  • Shiller R.J. (2010). A Crisis of Understanding. <http://www.projectsyndicate.org/commentary/shiller70/English (21.12.2011)
  • Somel C. (2009). İktisadi Buhran ve Sermaye Birikimi. Tes-İş Dergisi, 80-83, Mart.
  • Stiglitz J.E. (2008) The Fruit of Hypocrisy. currency.html>. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/16/economics.wallstreet.globalcurrency.html (21.12.2011).
  • Tarı R. (2011). Ekonometri. (7. Basım), İstanbul: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Taylor M. and Sarno L. (1998). The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period. Journal of International Economics. 46, 281-312.
  • Weeks J. (2009). The Impact of The Global Fınancıal Crisis on The Economy of Sierra Leone. A Report For Undp Freetown and the Ministry of Finance And Economic Development. Republic of Sierra Leone. Country Study. 18, September.
  • Wooldridge J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.
There are 53 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

İsmet Göçer This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 16 Issue: 29

Cite

APA Göçer, İ. (2013). Küresel Ekonomik Krizin Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi. Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(29), 163-188.

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