TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE EKOLOJİK AYAK İZİ İLİŞKİSİ: FOURİER BOOTSTRAP TESTLERİ İLE AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME (1961–2022)

Abstract

Bu araştırmanın temel amacı, 1961-2022 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinde ekonomik faaliyetler sonucunda yaşanan ekonomik büyümenin çevre üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Çevresel kaliteyi temsilen kullanılan ekolojik ayak izi değişkeni ekosisteme dair kapsamlı bir bakış açısı olanağı sağlamaktadır. Çalışma bağlamında Fourier tabanlı bootstrap yöntemler tercih edilmiştir. Fourier Bootstrap ADF testi, Fourier Bootstrap ADL eşbütünleşme testi, Fourier Bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik testi ve Dinamik OLS (DOLS) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde anlamlı ve pozitif bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik yapısı olduğu belirlenmiştir. DOLS analizleri ise ekonomik büyümenin ekolojik ayak izini uzun vadede pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, ekonomik büyümenin çevresel sürdürülebilirlik açısından önemli problemler oluşturduğunu ve fosil yakıt bağımlılığı gibi faktörlerin ekolojik ayak izini artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’nin çevresel sürdürülebilirlik açısından düşük karbonlu ve kaynak verimliliğini önceleyen büyüme stratejilerine yönelmesi gerektiği vurgulanmaktadır. Ayrıca, çevre dostu politikaların geliştirilmesi, ayak izinin azaltılmasına ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Ekolojik Ayak İzi
• Eşbütünleşme
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN TURKIYE: EVIDENCE FROM FOURIER BOOTSTRAP COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSES (1961–2022)

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the relationship between per capita ecological footprint and economic growth in the Turkish economy for the period 1961-2022. The ecological footprint, utilized as a proxy for environmental quality, offers a comprehensive perspective on the ecosystem. In this context, the Fourier-based bootstrap methods have been employed in the study. To achieve this, it employs Fourier Bootstrap ADF unit root tests, Fourier Bootstrap ADL cointegration tests, Fourier Bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto causality tests, and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimations. The findings indicate a significant long-run cointegration relationship between the two variables. Additionally, a bidirectional causality structure between economic growth and ecological footprint is detected. The DOLS results confirm that economic growth has a positive and statistically significant long-term impact on ecological footprint. These results highlight the environmental risks associated with economic growth models in Turkey, especially the continued reliance on fossil fuels and resource-intensive production structures. The study suggests that low-carbon and resource-efficient growth strategies should be prioritized to ensure environmental sustainability. Moreover, the development and implementation of environmentally friendly policies can help reduce the ecological footprint and contribute to sustainable development goals.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Ecological Footprint
• Cointegration
• Turkish Economy

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