Genişletilmiş Marshall-Lerner Koşulu Çerçevesinde Reel Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Türkiye'nin Dış Ticaret Performansına Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi

Year 2013, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 137 - 157, 01.06.2013

İsmet Göçer Bekir Elmas

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı; reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi, Türkiye'nin ara malları, sermaye malları, tüketim malları ve toplam dış ticaret verilerini kullanarak, genişletilmiş Marshall-Lerner koşulu çerçevesinde, 1989Q1-2012Q2 dönemi için, çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök ve çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemleri yardımıyla analiz etmektir. Çalışmada serilerin durağanlığı; Carrion-i-Silvestre 2009 çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök yöntemiyle, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı; Maki 2012 çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemiyle test edilmiş, eşbütünleşme katsayıları; dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, Türkiye'de bütün mal gruplarında, Genişletilmiş MarshallLerner koşulunun geçerli olduğu görülmüştür

Keywords

Reel Döviz Kuru, Dış Ticaret Dengesi, Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök ve Eşbütünleşme Testi

The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Turkey's Foreign Trade Performance within the Framework of the Extended Marshall-Lerner Condition: Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks

Abstract

The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Turkey's Foreign Trade Performance within the Framework of the Extended Marshall-Lerner Condition: Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between real exchange rate and the balance of external trade of Turkey by using the intermediate goods, capital goods, consumption goods and total external trade data, within the extended Marshall-Lerner Condition framework, for 1989Q1-2012Q2 period by means of unit root test and cointegration methods with multiple structural breaks. In this study, the stationarity of series were tested with unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre 2009 . Cointegration relationship between series was tested via cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki 2012 . Cointegration coefficients were estimated by means of dynamic ordinary least square method. As a result of the analysis, extended Marshall-Lerner Condition is valid for all production groups in Turkey

Keywords

Real Exchange Rate, External Trade Balance, Unit Root and Cointegration Test with Multiple Structural Breaks.

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