İklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu aşırı hava olaylarının küçük ölçekli tarım üreticileri ve tarım sigorta şirketleri üzerindeki mali etkisinin değerlendirilmesi

Year 2026, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 41 - 71, 15.03.2026

Alli Noah

https://doi.org/10.58308/bemarej.1859884

https://izlik.org/JA73JP34NY

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Nijerya'nın Lagos Eyaleti'ndeki küçük ölçekli çiftçiler ve tarım sigorta şirketleri üzerindeki iklim kaynaklı aşırı hava olaylarının finansal etkisini değerlendirmektedir. 180 küçük ölçekli çiftçi ve dört genel sigorta şirketinden 40 personelden oluşan bir anketten elde edilen verilerin tanımlayıcı ve çıkarımsal istatistiksel analizini kullanan çalışma, şiddetli fırtınaların en sık görülen aşırı hava olayı olduğunu ve katılımcıların %65,0'ı tarafından doğrulandığını ortaya koymuştur. Fırtınalar aynı zamanda en büyük finansal zararı da vermiş olup, çiftçi başına ortalama 87.544,44 ₦'lik bir ürün kaybına neden olmuştur. Çiftçiler arasında tarım sigortasına genel katılım oranı %52,8 olarak bulunmuş olup, cinsiyet eşitsizliği erkek çiftçilerin (%59,0) kadın çiftçilere (%47,4) göre daha yüksek bir satın alma oranına sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Primlerin karşılanabilirliği, Likert ölçeğinde en düşük ortalama puan (2,94) ile erişilebilirliğin önündeki en önemli engel olarak belirlenmiştir. Sigorta şirketlerinin çeşitli ürünler sunduğu, yüksek oranda (%72,5) ürün sigortası ve (%72,5) tarım varlık sigortası sunduğu, ancak hava endeksi sigortası gibi daha modern çözümlerin bulunabilirliğinde önemli bir eksiklik olduğu (%45 oranında şirket bu hizmeti sunmaktadır) tespit edilmiştir. Analiz ayrıca, tazminat taleplerinin finansal etkisi ile sigorta şirketlerinin ödeme gücü arasında çok güçlü bir pozitif korelasyon olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Sigortacılar tarafından belirlenen temel zorluklar, sürekli olarak en önemli zorluklar olarak algılanan fiyatlandırma zorlukları ve yüksek idari maliyetlerdir. Çalışma, iklim kaynaklı bu finansal risklerin hem küçük ölçekli çiftçilerin geçim kaynakları hem de tarım sigorta sağlayıcılarının ödeme gücü üzerinde doğrudan ve önemli bir etkisi olduğu bulgusuyla sonuçlanmaktadır.

Keywords

Aşırı Hava Olayları , İklim Değişikliğinden Kaynaklanan Hava Olayları , Küçük Ölçekli Tarım Üreticileri , Tarım Sigortası

Ethical Statement

Yazarlar, bu çalışmanın hazırlık sürecinin tamamında etik kurallara ve bilimsel atıf ilkelerine uyulduğunu beyan eder.

Assessment of the financial impact of climate-induced extreme weather events on smallholder crop farmers and agricultural insurance companies

https://izlik.org/JA73JP34NY

Abstract

This study assesses the financial impact of climate-induced extreme weather events on smallholder crop farmers and agricultural insurance firms in Lagos State, Nigeria. Statistical methods employed include descriptive statistics (frequencies, means, percentages), cross-tabulation, Likert-scale analysis, and simple linear regression to assess the relationship between claims and firm solvency. Using a descriptive and inferential statistical analysis of data from a survey of 180 smallholder farmers and 40 staff from four general insurance companies, the study found that severe storms were the most frequent extreme weather event, confirmed by 65.0% of respondents. Storms were also the most financially damaging, causing an average crop loss of ₦87,544.44 per farmer. The overall uptake of agricultural insurance among farmers was found to be 52.8%, with a gender disparity showing male farmers had a higher purchase rate (59.0%) than female farmers (47.4%). Affordability of premiums was identified as the most significant barrier to accessibility, with the lowest mean score (2.94) on a Likert scale. Insurance firms were found to offer a variety of products, with a high proportion offering crop insurance (72.5%) and farm asset insurance (72.5%), but a notable gap in the availability of more modern solutions like weather-index insurance (only 45% of firms offered it). The analysis further revealed a very strong positive correlation between the financial impact of claims and the solvency of insurance firms. Key challenges identified by insurers were pricing difficulties and high administrative costs, which were consistently perceived as the most significant challenges. The study concludes with the finding that these climate-induced financial risks have a direct and significant impact on both smallholder farmer livelihoods and the solvency of agricultural insurance providers.

Keywords

Climate-Induced Weather , Extreme Weather Events , Smallholder Crop Farmers , Agricultural Insurance

Ethical Statement

The author declare that ethical rules and scientific citation principles were complied with throughout the preparation process of this study.

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