The relationship between external debt and economic growth: The example of BRICS-T countries

Year 2023, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 139 - 157, 31.07.2023

Mehmet Mert Türk

https://doi.org/10.58308/bemarej.1221368

Abstract

Although the financing to be provided by the countries for their investments seems to be more of a problem of developing countries, the enrichment experienced in the financial instrument set today pushes the countries to borrow in terms of financing regardless of the level. Although the literature mainly emphasizes that the external borrowing method will have a positive effect on economic growth by creating an increase in national income in the short term, it points out that this effect will turn negative depending on the borrowing structure in the long term.
In this study, the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth was investigated for the period of 1994-2020 in particular for BRICS-T countries. The total GDP of the countries in dollar terms was taken into account to represent the economic growth variable, and the total external debt of the countries in dollars was taken into account as the external debt variable. Hadri-Kurozumi (2012) panel unit root test, Westerlund multiple structural fracture panel cointegration test and FMOLS / DOLS tests were applied to test the model established in the study. As a result of the study; It was determined that the 1% increase in external borrowing positively affected economic growth by approximately 0.93% according to the panel FMOLS forecaster and by approximately 0.95% according to the panel DOLS forecaster.

Keywords

External Debt, Economic Growth, Panel FMOLS, Panel DOLS

Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: BRICS-T ülkeleri örneği

Abstract

Ülkelerin yatırımlarına sağlayacağı finansman daha çok gelişmekte olan ülkelerin problemi gibi görünse de, günümüzde finansal araç setinde yaşanan zenginleşme ülkeleri düzey fark etmeksizin finansman açısından borçlanma yoluna itmektedir. Literatür ağırlıklı olarak dış borçlanma yönteminin her ne kadar kısa vadede milli gelir artışı yaratarak iktisadi büyüme üzerinde olumlu etki yapacağını vurgulamışsa da uzun vadede borçlanma yapısına bağlı olarak bu etkinin negatife döneceğine işaret etmektedir.
Bu çalışmada dış borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi BRICS-T ülkeleri özelinde 1994-2020 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme değişkenini temsilen ülkelerin dolar cinsinden toplam Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH)’sı dikkate alınmış, dış borç değişkeni olarak ise ülkelerin dolar cinsinden toplam dış borcu veri kabul edilmiştir. Çalışmada kurulan modelin sınaması için Hadri- Kurozumi (2012) panel birim kök testi, Westerlund çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme testi ve FMOLS / DOLS testleri uygulanmıştır edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda; dış borçlanmada gerçekleşecek %1’lik artışın iktisadi büyümeyi panel FMOLS tahmincisine göre yaklaşık %0.93, panel DOLS tahmincisine göre ise yaklaşık %0.95 oranında olumlu etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Dış Borçlanma, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel FMOLS, Panel DOLS

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