Analysis of Impacts of Financial Development and FDI’s on Economic Growth in Türkiye with Asymmetric Cointegration and Causality Estimation

Year 2026, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 497 - 529, 28.02.2026

Havva Nesrin Tiryaki

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1657106

https://izlik.org/JA29PF67BD

Abstract

This paper analyzes the influence of financial development on economic growth in Türkiye, specifically focusing on the roles of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness (TRADE), and nominal exchange rate (ER) from 2005 to 2023. In this study, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (NARDL) approach was used to identify the effects of independent variables on GDP growth, and the Toda-Yamamato causality approach was used to determine the direction of the relationship between variables. In the long run, positive shocks to financial development result in GDP growth, while negative shocks cause significantly larger declines in GDP, highlighting the Turkish economy's vulnerability to negative developments. The analysis reveals that the impact of positive FDI developments on economic growth is insignificant for Türkiye. However, in the long run, the negative effects of FDI negatively impact economic growth. The findings indicate an urgent need for policies that mitigate the risks associated with financial downturns to promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, the Toda–Yamamoto causality test results indicate unidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and financial development, FDI, and trade openness, but no causal relationship with exchange rates, thereby demonstrating that the NARDL findings are robust to potential endogeneity and reverse causality.

Keywords

Economic Growth , Financial Development , Foreign Direct Investment , NARDL

Türkiye'de Finansal Gelişme ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme Etkilerinin Asimetrik Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Tahminleri ile Analizi

https://izlik.org/JA29PF67BD

Abstract

Bu makale, Türkiye'de finansal gelişmenin (FIN) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini, özellikle 2005'ten 2023'e kadar doğrudan yabancı yatırım (FDI), ticaret açıklığı (TRADE) ve nominal döviz kurunun (ER) rollerine odaklanarak analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, bağımsız değişkenlerin GSYİH büyümesi üzerindeki etkilerini belirlemek için Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli (NARDL) yaklaşımları ve değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünü belirlemek için Toda-Yamamato nedensellik yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönemde finansal gelişmedeki pozitif şoklar GSYİH büyümesiyle sonuçlanırken, olumsuz şoklar önemli ölçüde GSYİH’da daha yüksek düşüşlere neden olmakta ve Türk ekonomisinin olumsuz gelişmelere karşı duyarlılığını vurgulamaktadır. Analiz, FDI’daki pozitif gelişmelerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin Türkiye için önemli olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak uzun dönemde FDI düşüşlerindeki negatif etkiler ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilemektedir. Bulgular, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik etmek için finansal gerilemelerle bağlantılı riskleri azaltan politikalara acil ihtiyaç olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçları, ekonomik büyüme ile finansal gelişme, FDI ve ticaret açıklığı arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkilerinin bulunduğunu ancak döviz kuru ile nedesellik ilişkisinin olmadığını göstererek, NARDL bulgularının olası içsellik ve ters nedensellik sorunlarına karşı dayanıklı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme , Finansal Gelişme , Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım , NARDL

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