Panel Data Test on the Validity of the Material Kuznets Curve in MENA Countries

Year 2026, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 1 - 27, 28.02.2026

Selahattin Bektaş , Rüya Ataklı Yavuz

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1696427

https://izlik.org/JA42LP34XJ

Abstract

Material footprint is a key sustainability indicator that quantitatively reveals a country’s or an economy’s natural resource consumption and the associated environmental impacts. This indicator is an important tool for measuring the environmental pressure of countries’ economic activities and for shaping sustainable development policies. This study examines the relationship between material footprint and per capita income in 12 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Turkey) within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Parks-Kmenta and Beck-Katz estimators are used in the analysis using panel data for the 1976-2014 period. According to the findings, an increase in domestic output leads to a significant increase in the material footprint. Parks-Kmenta results show an increase of 33.60% and Beck-Katz results show an increase of 42.04%. However, an increase in the square of the income level is associated with a decrease in the material footprint by 3.70% and 4.57% respectively. These results support the validity of the material Kuznets hypothesis. The study emphasizes that economic growth puts significant pressure on environmental costs and recommends that growth strategies for MENA countries should be redesigned in line with the principles of environmental sustainability. In particular, green growth policies and circular economy practices should be promoted.

Keywords

Material Footprint , MENA Countries , Sustainable Development

ODKA Ülkelerinde Malzeme Kuznets Eğrisinin Geçerliliği Üzerine Panel Veri Sınaması

https://izlik.org/JA42LP34XJ

Abstract

Malzeme ayak izi, bir ülkenin ya da ekonominin doğal kaynak tüketimi ile buna bağlı çevresel etkilerini niceliksel olarak ortaya koyan temel bir sürdürülebilirlik göstergesidir. Bu gösterge, ülkelerin ekonomik faaliyetlerinin çevresel baskısını ölçmede ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarının şekillendirilmesinde önemli bir araçtır. Bu çalışma, Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika (ODKA) bölgesinde yer alan 12 ülkede (Cezayir, Bahreyn, Mısır, İran, İsrail, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Fas, Umman, Suudi Arabistan, Tunus ve Türkiye) malzeme ayak izi ile kişi başına düşen gelir arasındaki ilişkiyi Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezi çerçevesinde incelemektedir. 1976–2014 dönemine ait panel veriler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen analizlerde, Parks-Kmenta ve Beck-Katz tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, yurtiçi hasıladaki artış, malzeme ayak izinde belirgin bir yükselişe yol açmaktadır. Parks-Kmenta sonuçları %33,60'lık bir artış, Beck-Katz sonuçları ise %42,04’lük bir artış göstermektedir. Ancak, gelir düzeyinin karesindeki artış malzeme ayak izinde sırasıyla %3,70 ve %4,57 oranlarında bir azalma ile ilişkilidir. Bu sonuçlar, malzeme Kuznets hipotezinin geçerliliğini desteklemektedir. Çalışmada, ekonomik büyümenin çevresel maliyetler üzerinde ciddi bir baskı oluşturduğu vurgulanmakta ve ODKA ülkeleri için büyüme stratejilerinin çevresel sürdürülebilirlik ilkeleri doğrultusunda yeniden tasarlanması önerilmektedir. Özellikle yeşil büyüme politikaları ve döngüsel ekonomi uygulamalarının yaygınlaştırılması gerektiği ifade edilmektedir.

Keywords

Malzeme Ayak İzi , ODKA Ülkeleri , Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma

References

• Aşıcı, A. A., & Acar, S. (2017). Economic development and environmental sustainability: Evidence from the ecological footprint. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 19(6), 2221–2237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9841-2.
• Baltagi, H. B. ve Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances. Econometric Theory, 15, 814-823. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466699156020.
• Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and the fixed effects model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533-549. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297285
• Breusch, T. & Pagan, A. (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”. Review of Economic Studies, 47 (1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111.
• Chakroun, M. H., Ben Mbarek, M., & Saadaoui, Z. (2024). Exploring the relationship between economic growth and ecological footprint in MENA countries: Evidence from a PMG-ARDL model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 31(4), 5678–5692. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30000-5.
• Charlier, D., & Fizaine, F. (2020). Does the Kuznets curve for material footprint really exist? A global panel data analysis. Ecological Economics, 176, 106740. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106740.
• Dumıtrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012), Testing for Granger noncausality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014.
• European Environment Agency. (2024). Europe’s Material Footprint. https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/europes-material-footprint (Erişim Tarihi: 13.12.2024).
• Farhani, S., Shahbaz, M., & Arouri, M. (2014). Panel analysis of CO₂ emissions, GDP, energy consumption, and trade openness in MENA region. Energy Policy, 74, 106–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.020.
• Friedman, M. (1937). The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality ımplicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32, 675-701. https://doi.org/10.2307/2279372.
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377.
• Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827.
• Majeed, M. T., & Mazhar, U. (2021). Environmental Kuznets curve and material footprint: Evidence from global panel data. Journal of Cleaner Production, 281, 124656.
• Pata, U. K., & Karlilar, S. (2024). The integrated influence of energy security risk and green innovation on the material footprint: An EKC analysis based on fossil material flows. Journal of Cleaner Production, 435, 140469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140469.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). “A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-section Independence”. Econometrics Journal, 11, pp. 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
• Rahman, M. M., Kilic, C., Akcan, A. T., & Kazak, H. (2025). Factors Affecting the Material Footprint in G7 Countries: Panel Cointegration Approach With Fourier Function. Environmental Quality Management, 34(3), e70067. https://doi.org/10.1002/tqem.70067.
• Regueiro-Ferreira, R. M., & Alonso-Fernández, P. (2023). Interaction between renewable energy consumption and dematerialization: Insights based on the material footprint and the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy, 266, 126477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.126477.
• Sarıöz Gökteki, Y. & Koçak, E. (2024). Türkiye ve Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde Materyal Kuznets Eğrisinin geçerliliği üzerine panel veri analizi. 11. Uluslararası Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları Sempozyumu (11.06.2024). Bakü/Azerbaycan. ISBN:978-9952-39-263-0
• Schandl, H., Hatfield-Dodds, S., Wiedmann, T., et al. (2016). Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: scenarios for resource use and decoupling. Global Environmental Change, 36, 292–305.
• Shao, S., Yang, L., & Sun, Y. (2019). How does structural transformation affect material use in developing countries? Resources Policy, 60, 177–189.
• Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 38(2), 311–323. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913012
• Turgut, C., & Gökten, S. (2022). Ekonomik büyüme ile malzeme ayak izi arasındaki ilişkinin analizi: G7 ülkeleri üzerine bir inceleme. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 517–534. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1036207.
• Turgut, E., & Gökten, Y. S. (2023). Çevre Kirliliğinin Bir Göstergesi Olarak Malzeme Ayak İzi için Panel Veri Analizi, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 32 (1), 20-29. https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1102966.
• Turgut, E., & Sarıöz Gökten, Y. (2022). Malzeme Kuznets eğrisi malzeme ayak izi için geçerli mi? G-7 ülkeleri örneği. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(2), 823-841. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1081602.
• UN. (2025). Global Material Flows Database, https://www.resourcepanel.org/data-resources.
• UNEP (2016). Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity. United Nations Environment Programme. https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/global-material-flows-and-resource-productivity.
• UNEP. (2021). Food Waste Index Report 2021, https://www.unep.org/resources/report/unep-food-waste-index-report-2021.
• United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). (2024). Global SDG Indicators Database. Retrieved from: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/database/.
• UNSTATS. (2021). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2021, https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2021/goal-12/ (Erişim Tarihi: 21.04.2025).
• Wang, Q., Su, M., & Li, R. (2020). A revisit to the material footprint–income relationship: Evidence from panel data. Ecological Indicators, 110, 105898.
• Wiedmann, T., Schandl, H., Lenzen, M., Moran, D., et al. (2015). The material footprint of nations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 (20), 6271–6276. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220362110.
• World Bank. (2025). World Development Indicators, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.