Food Supply in Türkiye Amid Globalization, Economic Development, and Inflation: FBARDL and Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Year 2026, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 653 - 693, 28.02.2026

Mehmet Aslan

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1696636

https://izlik.org/JA68FH84SM

Abstract

In recent years, rapid population growth, high inflation rates, and global economic fluctuations have increasingly exposed structural vulnerabilities affecting food supply in Türkiye. These vulnerabilities, especially in developing economies, threaten not only production capacity but also sectoral stability and sustainability. This study empirically examines the effects of key macroeconomic variables globalization, income level, and inflation on agricultural food supply in Türkiye. Using time series data from 1970 to 2022, the analysis employs both the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL model and Wavelet Coherence approach (WTC). The findings indicate that globalization has a long-term negative effect on agricultural production, while rising income levels contributes positively to food supply. The impact of inflation appears more limited and varies across periods. The results reveal that agricultural production is not solely shaped by macroeconomic indicators, but also by institutional structures, policy interventions, and environmental factors. Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the need for a multidimensional policy perspective to ensure food supply security, especially with a focus on protecting vulnerable groups.

Keywords

Food Supply , Globalisation , Inflation , Economic Growth , FBARDL

Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Gelişme ve Enflasyon Ortamında Türkiye’de Gıda Arzı: FBARDL ve Dalgacık Tutarlılık Analizi

https://izlik.org/JA68FH84SM

Abstract

Türkiye’de son yıllarda yaşanan hızlı nüfus artışı, yüksek enflasyon oranları ve küresel ekonomik dalgalanmalar, gıda arzını etkileyen yapısal kırılganlıkları daha görünür hâle getirmiştir. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde bu tür kırılganlıklar, yalnızca üretim kapasitesini değil, aynı zamanda sektörel istikrarı ve sürdürülebilirliği de tehdit etmektedir. Bu çalışma, küreselleşme, gelir düzeyi ve enflasyon gibi temel makroekonomik değişkenlerin Türkiye’deki tarımsal gıda arzı üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir. 1970–2022 dönemine ait zaman serisi verilerine dayalı olarak yürütülen analizde Fourier Bootstrap ARDL modeli ile Dalgacık Tutarlılık (Wavelet Coherence, WTC) yöntemi birlikte kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, küreselleşmenin uzun vadede tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilediğini, gelir düzeyindeki artışın ise üretimi destekleyici bir rol oynadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Enflasyonun etkisi ise sınırlı olmakla birlikte dönemsel dalgalanmalar göstermektedir. Çalışma, tarımsal üretimin yalnızca makroekonomik göstergelere değil, aynı zamanda kurumsal yapı, destekleme politikaları ve çevresel koşullar gibi çok yönlü etkenlere bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, gıda arzının güvence altına alınmasına yönelik politikaların çok boyutlu bir perspektifle ele alınması gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

Gıda Arzı , Küreselleşme , Enflasyon , Ekonomik Büyüme , FBARDL

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