Public Debt and Economic Growth: Does One Size Fit All? Evidence from Fourier-based Empirical Analysis

Year 2026, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 437 - 465, 28.02.2026

Oğuzhan Bozatlı

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1812157

https://izlik.org/JA34NY29BL

Abstract

While public debt is vital for economic growth and development, a heavy debt burden has adverse effects. Therefore, there is a debate about how public debt will affect economic growth. This study investigates the public debt and economic growth nexus in Türkiye using the Fourier-Augmented ARDL methodology over the years 1968-2019. Although Türkiye has a moderate level of public debt, it has significantly lost its fiscal space because of geopolitical risks, irregular migration, natural disasters, inaccurate economic policies, and the economic crises it has frequently faced in the last decade. Our analysis demonstrates that public debt has a detrimental impact on economic growth, as evidenced by linear and nonlinear models. These findings remain consistent even after conducting robustness checks. However, our nonlinear model differs from the majority by indicating a U-shaped relationship between public debt and economic growth, featuring a 61-63% threshold. Therefore, increasing public debt to stimulate growth is not a viable policy. Instead, policymakers should prioritize borrowing to fund productive investments that increase output and employment rather than financing budget deficits and increasing the debt burden. For Türkiye, these initiatives can increase the welfare of present and future generations and make both public debt and economic growth sustainable.

Keywords

Public Debt , Economic Growth , Fourier-Augmented ARDL

Kamu Borcu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Her Duruma Uyan Tek Bir Model Mümkün mü? Fourier Tabanlı Ampirik Bulgular

https://izlik.org/JA34NY29BL

Abstract

Kamu borcu ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma için hayati öneme sahip olsa da aşırı borç yükü olumsuz etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu nedenle, kamu borcunun ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkileyeceği konusunda süregelen bir tartışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1968-2019 dönemi için Fourier-Artırılmış ARDL yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Türkiye’nin kamu borcu seviyesi genel olarak orta düzeyde olmasına rağmen, son on yılda sıkça karşılaşılan jeopolitik riskler, düzensiz göç, doğal afetler, hatalı ekonomik politikalar ve ekonomik krizler nedeniyle mali alanını önemli ölçüde kaybetmiştir. Analizimiz hem doğrusal hem de doğrusal olmayan modellerde kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yarattığını göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, sağlamlık testleri sonrasında da tutarlılığını korumaktadır. Bununla birlikte, doğrusal olmayan modelimiz çoğu çalışmadan farklı olarak, kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasında %61–63 eşiği bulunan U şeklinde bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle, büyümeyi teşvik etmek amacıyla kamu borcunu artırmak uygulanabilir bir politika değildir. Bunun yerine, politika yapıcıların borçlanmayı bütçe açıklarını finanse etmek veya borç yükünü artırmak yerine, üretimi ve istihdamı artıran verimli yatırımların finansmanına yönlendirmeleri gerekmektedir. Türkiye açısından bu tür girişimler hem mevcut hem de gelecek kuşakların refahını artırabilir ve kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyümeyi sürdürülebilir hale getirebilir.

Keywords

Kamu Borcu , Ekonomik Büyüme , Fourier-Augmented ARDL

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