The Impact of Energy Consumption Composition on Carbon Emissions in Türkiye: An Empirical ARDL Analysis
Abstract
This study investigates the environmental implications of energy consumption patterns in Türkiye by analyzing the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and fossil fuel use over the period 1974–2023. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and bounds testing approach, the analysis examines both short- and long-run dynamics among the variables. Unit root tests (ADF, PP, KPSS) indicate that all series are integrated of order one, I(1). The long-run results reveal that fossil fuel consumption is the primary determinant of CO₂ emissions, exerting a statistically significant and positive influence. In contrast, renewable energy consumption contributes to a reduction in emissions in both the short and long term. In the short run, economic growth increases emissions, consistent with the initial phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The error correction term is negative and statistically significant, confirming a robust mechanism that restores long-term equilibrium. Impulse response functions show that shocks to fossil energy usage generate persistent increases in CO₂ emissions, whereas shocks to renewable energy have a short-lived, negative impact. These findings highlight the urgent need for accelerating Türkiye’s transition toward a low-carbon energy system in order to achieve environmental sustainability.
Keywords
Carbon Emissions , Renewable Energy Consumption , ARDL Bounds Testing
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