PETROL, DOĞALGAZ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: AB ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Dünya ekonomisi çeşitli olağan dışı durumlarla karşı karşıya kalmaktadır. Yaşanan finansal krizler, Covid-19 süreci dünya ekonomisinde sarsıcı etkiler yaratmaktadır. 24 Şubat 2022’de Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı işgali ile birlikte enerji sorunu, dünya ekonomisinin yeni gündemini oluşturmaktadır. Enerji, gelişmiş AB ülkeleri sanayisi için önem arz etmektedir. Enerjinin kesintisiz ve güvenli aktarımının sağlanabilmesi AB’nin bekası ve büyümesi için önemli bir unsur olarak görülmektedir. Hem bireysel kullanım hem de çeşitli sektörler tarafından sıklıkla tercih edilen petrol ve doğal gazın diğer enerji çeşitlerine göre farklı bir konumu bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada AB ülkelerinde 2000-2020 dönemi için petrol ve doğal gaz tüketimlerinin, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki olası etkisi, panel veri analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla iki farklı ekonometrik model kurulmuştur. Birinci modelde 26 AB ülkesi ele alınırken ikinci modelde 25 AB ülkesi ele alınmıştır. Her iki modelde de kontrol değişkenleri olarak; sabit sermaye yatırımları ve ihracat serileri kullanılmıştır. Birinci modelin amacı, petrol tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini saptamaktır. Birinci modele ilişkin bulgularda, petrol tüketimindeki bir artışın, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etki bıraktığı gözlemlenmiştir. İkinci modelin amacı ise doğal gaz tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki olası etkisini tespit etmektir. İkinci modelin bulgularında, doğal gaz tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etki bırakmadığı yer almaktadır.

Keywords

• Petrol
• Doğalgaz
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Avrupa Birliği
• Panel Veri Analizi.

OIL, NATURAL GAS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF THE EU

Abstract

The world economy is faced with various extraordinary situations. The financial crises experienced and the covid-19 process create shocking effects on the world economy. With the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2022, the energy problem is the new agenda of the world economy. Energy is of great importance for the industry of developed EU countries. Ensuring the uninterrupted and secure transfer of energy is seen as an important element for the survival and growth of the EU. Oil and natural gas, which is frequently preferred by both individual use and various sectors, has a different position compared to other types of energy. In this study, the possible effect of oil and natural gas consumptions on economic growth in EU countries for the period 2000-2020 was investigated by panel data analysis. For this purpose, two different econometric models were established. In the first model, 26 EU countries, and in the second model, 25 EU countries are considered. As control variables in both models; fixed capital investments and export series are used. The aim of the first model is to determine the effect of oil consumption on economic growth. In the findings of the first model, it has been observed that an increase in oil consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. The purpose of the second model is to determine the possible effect of natural gas consumption on economic growth. The findings of the second model show that natural gas consumption does not have a statistically significant effect on economic growth.

Keywords

• Oil
• Natural Gas
• Economic Growth
• European Union
• Panel Data Analysis.

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