TÜRKİYE’DE YAŞAM BEKLENTİSİ - EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: ARDL MODELİ İLE BİR ANALİZ

Abstract

İktisadi büyüme performansını özellikle uzun dönemde pozitif yönde etkileyen en önemli faktörlerden biri, sağlıktır. Sağlık yatırımlarının artırılması, öte yandan bu alanda yapılacak kalite iyileştirmesi, ortalama yaşam süresinin uzamasına yol açarak emek verimliliğini ve dolayısıyla ekonomik performansı pozitif yönde etkiler. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de yaşam beklentisi ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenecektir. Çalışmada 1980-2005 dönemine ilişkin yıllık veriler, ARDL modeli ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye’de yaşam beklentisi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki vardır.

Keywords

• Yaşam Beklentisi , Ekonomik Büyüme ,ARDL Modeli, Türkiye

Türkiye’de Yaşam Beklentisi - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: ARDL Modeli İle Bir Analiz

Abstract

An important factor which positively affects the performance of economic growth, particularly in the long run, is health. Raising the health investment together with enhancing the quality in this field will lead to productivity in the labor market which in turn will have positive impact on economic performance by increasing the average life span. In this study, the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth will be analyzed. The annual data in between years 1980-2005 is tested via ARDL model. According to the findings, there is a positive relation between the life expectancy and economic growth in Turkey.

Keywords

• Life Expectation, Economic Growth, ARDL Model, Turkey

References

1. Bhargava, A., Jamison, D. T., Lau, L ve Murray, C.J.L. (2001), “Modeling the Effects of Health on Economic Growth”, Journal of Health Economics, 423 – 40.
2. Bloom, D.E., Canning, D. ve Sevilla, J.(2001), “The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8587, 1-26.
3. Bloom D. E. and Canning D. (1999), “The Health and Wealth of Nations”, Science, 287, (5456), 2000), 1207- 09. Boucekkine, R., Croix. D. de la ve Licandro O. (2002), “Vintage Human Capital Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Economic Theory, 104, (2), 340-75.
4. Climent, A.C. ve Doménech, R. (2006), “Human Capital Inequality Life Expectancy and Economic Growth”, Institute of International Economics, University of Valencia Working Papers, No:0604, 1-31.
5. Chakraborty, S. (2004), “Endegoneous Lifetime and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Theory, 116, 119- 37.
6. de la Croix D. and Licandro, Omar (1999), “Life Expectancy and Endogenous Growth”, Economics Letters, 65, 255-63.
7. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
8. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series Analysis with a Unit Root“, Econometrica, 49,1057-1072.

9. Engle R.F., Granger C.W.J. (1987):”Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation,and Testing”, Econometrica , 55, (2), 251-276.
10. Echevarría, C.A. (2004), “Life Expectancy, Schooling Time, Retirement, and Growth”, Economic Inquiry, 42, (4), 602 -17.
11. Granger, C.W.J.(1981), ”Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification”, Journal of Econometrics, 16, 121-130.
12. Granger, C.W.J., Hyung, N. and Jeon, Y. (2001), “Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series”, Applied Economics, 33, 899-904.
13. Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P.(1974), “Spurious Regressions in Economics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-20.
14. Johansen, S.(1988):”Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
15. Johansen S. and Juselius K. (1990):”Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistic, 52, (2), 169-210.
16. Kalemli – Özcan, Şebnem Reyder, Harl E. ve Weil, David N. (2000), “Mortality Decline Human Capital Invesment and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 62, 1-23.
17. Maddala, G.S. (1992),Introduction to Econometrics, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
18. Mayer, D. (2001), “The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America”, World Development, 29, (6), 1025-33.
19. McDonald, S. ve Roberts, J. (2002), “Growth and Multiple Forms of Human Capital in an Augmented Solow Model: A Panel Data Investigation”, Economics Letters, 74, 271-276.
20. Morand, O.F. (2004), “Economic Growth Longevity and the Epidemiological Transition”, The European Jounal of Health and Economics, 5, (2), 166 – 74.
21. Pesaran, H.M., Shin Y. ve Smith R.J. (2001):”Bounds Testing Approach to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics ,16, (3), 289-326.
22. Pesaran, H.M., Shin Y. (1995):”An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, DAE Working Paper, No:9514, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
23. Phillips, P., C., B. and Peron, P. (1988), ”Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, (2), 335-346.
24. Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1988), “Testing for Common Trends”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83,.1097-1107.
25. Scheffler, R.M. (2004), “Health Expenditure and Economic Growth: An International Perspective”, Occasional
26. Papers on Globalization, 1, (10), University of South Florida, 1 – 9.
27. Tabata, K. (2005), “Population Aging, the Costs of Health Care for the Elderly and Growth”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 27, (3), 472-93.
28. Zhang, J. ve Zhang, J. (2005), “The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107, (1), 45-66.
29. Zhang, J. ve Zhang, J. and Lee, R. (2003), “Rising Longevity Education Savings and Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 70, 83-10.