THE ESTIMATION OF TAYLOR TYPE INTEREST RATE REACTION’S FUNCTION IN THE FRAME OF OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2014, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 115 - 126, 01.06.2014

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu

Abstract

In this study ,by being used period of 1987:1-2013:3 quarterly frequency data sets, it is aimed to determine whether short-term nominal interest rates act as rule-based and whether monetary authority follows a rule-based monetary policy strategy or not. Taylor-type interest rate reaction function has been estimated under forwardlooking expectations by considering technique GMM and findings have reached Taylor Rule is valid in Turkey in the relevant period of analysis. Additionally; flattening parameter, considering the size and significance of the other coefficients, another finding obtained in the study is the monetary authority with independence purpose does not fulfill applications for price stability as its primary task, instead it is in an effort to straighten fluctuations observed in growth as its primary objective

Keywords

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OPTIMAL PARA POLITIKASI ÇERÇEVESINDE TAYLOR TIPI FAIZ ORANI REAKSIYON FONKSIYONUN TAHMINI: TÜRKIYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1987:1-2013:3 dönemi çeyreklik frekanstaki veri setleri kullanılarak kısa vadeli nominal faiz oranlarının bir kurala dayalı olarak hareket edip etmediğinin belirlenmesi ve bu noktada parasal otoritenin kurala dayalı bir para politikası stratejisi izleyip izlemediğinin tespiti amaçlanmıştır. Taylor tipi faiz oranı reaksiyon fonksiyonu GMM tekniği dikkate alınarak ileriye dönük beklentiler altında tahmin edilmiş olup ilgili analiz döneminde Türkiye’de Taylor Kuralının geçerli olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca; düzleştirme parametresi, diğer katsayı büyüklükleri ve anlamlılıkları dikkate alındığında amaç bağımsızlığı bulunan parasal otoritenin birincil görevi olarak fiyat istikrarına yönelik uygulamaları yerine getirmediği, öncelikli hedefi olarak büyümede gözlenen dalgalanmaları düzleştirme çabası içinde olduğu çalışmada elde edilen diğer bir bulgudur

Keywords

Taylor Kuralı, Optimal Para Politikası, Faiz Oranı Reaksiyon Fonksiyonu, İleriye Dönük Modeller

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