Makroekonomik ve Sosyo-politik Endeks Nitelikli Çalışan Başına Reel GSYH’yi Nasıl Etkiler? Türk Cumhuriyetleri’nden Kanıtlar

Year 2023, , 1 - 38, 27.04.2023

Eşref Uğur Çelik , Fehmi Buğra Erdal Mustafa Can Küçüker Tolga Omay

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10501

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, nitelikli çalışan başına reel GSYH düzeyini etkileyen sosyoekonomik faktörler üzerinde durulmuştur. Bu amaçla Türk Cumhuriyetleri için makroekonomik ve sosyo-politik performans endeksleri oluşturulmuştur. Yeni oluşturulan bu endeksler kullanılarak, nitelikli çalışan başına düşen reel GSYH düzeyinin belirleyicileri literatürde ilk kez analiz edilmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, belirli eşik düzeylerinin nitelikli çalışan başına reel GSYH düzeyini önemli ölçüde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, çalışmada yer verilen ülkelerin politika yapıcıları, ülkelerinin refahı açısından iyi organize
edilmiş politikalar yürütmek için makroekonomik ve sosyo-politik performans endekslerin eşik değerlerini ciddi şekilde göz önünde bulundurmalıdır.

Keywords

Macroeconomic Performance Index, Socio-political Performance Index, Openness, Capital, Real GDP per Qualified Worker, Makroekonomik Performans Endeksi, Sosyo-politik Performans Endeksi, Dışa Açıklık, Sermaye, Nitelikli Çalışan Başına Reel GSYİH.

How Does Macroeconomic and Socio-political Index Affect the Real GDP per Qualified Worker? Evidence from Turkic Republics

Abstract

In this study, we concentrated on the socioeconomic factors affecting the level of real GDP per qualified worker. For this purpose, we have used the macroeconomic and socio-political performance index for Turkic Republics. By using these newly established indices, determinants of the level of real GDP per qualified worker are analyzed for the first time in the literature. From the empirical investigation, we found that certain threshold levels significantly affect the real GDP level perqualified worker. Therefore, the policymakers of these countries should seriously consider these threshold levels for macroeconomic and socio-political performance index for conducting a well-organized policy for the prosperity of their countries.

Keywords

Macroeconomic Performance Index, Socio-political Performance Index, Openness, Capital, Real GDP per Qualified Worker, Makroekonomik Performans Endeksi, Sosyo-politik Performans Endeksi, Dışa Açıklık, Sermaye, Nitelikli Çalışan Başına Reel GSYİH.

References

• Acemoglu, Daron, and James. A. Robinson. Why Nations Fail. The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. Crown Business, 2012.
• Barro, Robert J. “Democracy and Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 1, no. 1, 1996, pp. 1–27, doi:10.1007/BF00163340.
• Çelik, Eşref Uğur. Türkiye’nin Politik Ekonomisi. Siyasal Kitabevi, 2022.
• Çolak, Ömer Faruk, and Allattin Aktaş. Makro Ekonomik Göstergelerin Yorumlanması. Efil Yayınevi, 2010.
• Coppedge, Michael, et al. V-Dem Codebook V6. Varieties of Democracy (VDem) Project, 2016.
• Çorakcı, Ayşegül, et al. “Re-Examining the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis (RIPH) Using Panel Unit Root Tests with Asymmetry and Cross-Section Dependence.” Empirica, vol. 44, no. 1, 2017, pp. 91–120, doi:10.1007/s10663-015-9312-4.
• Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan, and Tolga Omay. “Reexamining the PPP Hypothesis: A Nonlinear Asymmetric Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Test.” Economic Modelling, vol. 40, Elsevier B.V., 2014, pp. 184–90, doi:10.1016/j. econmod.2014.03.028.
• Eyüboğlu, Kemal. “Türk Dünyasında Yer Alan Ülkelerin Makroekonomik Performanlarının Karşılaştırılması.” Bilig, vol. 83, 2017, pp. 331–50.
• Fischer, Stanley. “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 32, no. 3, 1993, pp. 485–512, doi:10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D.
• González, Andrés, et al. “Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models.” International Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Statistics, 2005.
• Granger, Clive WJ, and Timo Terasvirta. Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships. Oxford University Press, 1993.
• Hansen, Bruce E. “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference.” Journal of Econometrics, vol. 93, no. 2, North-Holland, 1999, pp. 345–68, doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1.
• İsmihan, Mustafa. The Role of Politics and Instabilty on Public Spending Dynamics and Macroeconomic Performance: Theory and Evidence From Turkey. METU, 2003.
• Luukkonen, Ritva, et al. “Testing Linearity against Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models.” Biometrika, vol. 75, no. 3, Oxford Academic, 1988, pp. 491–99, doi:10.1093/BIOMET/75.3.491.
• Mankiw, N. G. Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers, 2010.
• Okun, Arthur M. Equality and Efficiency: The Big Trade-Off. The Brookings Institute, 1975.
• ---. The Political Economy of Prosperity. Norton, 1970.
• Omay, Tolga, Muhammad Shahbaz, et al. “Is There Really Hysteresis in the OECD Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test.” Empirica, vol. 48, no. 4, Springer US, 2021, pp. 875–901, doi:10.1007/s10663-021-09510-z.
• Omay, Tolga, Ayşegül Çorakcı, et al. “Real Interest Rates: Nonlinearity and Structural Breaks.” Empirical Economics, vol. 52, no. 1, Springer Verlag, 2017, pp. 283–307, doi:10.1007/S00181-015-1065-1/FIGURES/4.
• Omay, Tolga, Mübariz Hasanov, et al. “Testing for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels with Smooth Breaks and Cross-Sectionally Dependent Errors.” Computational Economics, vol. 52, no. 1, Springer New York LLC, 2018, pp. 167–93, doi:10.1007/S10614-017-9667-7/TABLES/10.
• Ozek, Yavuz. “Political Stability and Economic Growth Relation: The Case of Turkey and Turkic Republics.” Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, vol. 7, no. 3, Pressacademia, 2020, pp. 263–73, doi:10.17261/ PRESSACADEMIA.2020.1293.
• Rodrik, Dani, and Arvind Subramanian. “The Primacy of Institutions: (And What This Does and Does Not Mean).” Finance & Development, vol. 0040, no. 002, International Monetary Fund, 2003, doi:10.5089/9781451952926.022.A010.
• Teräsvirta, Timo, et al. “Linear Models, Smooth Transition Autoregressions, and Neural Networks for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-Examination.” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 21, no. 4, 2005, pp. 755–74, doi:10.1016/J.IJFORECAST.2005.04.010.
• Tunay, K. Batu. “Yükselen Ekonomilerde Makro Ekonomik Dengesizliklerin Etkileşimi: Türk Cumhuriyetleri Örneği.” Bilig, vol. 83, 2017, pp. 171–99.
• Ucar, Nuri, and Tolga Omay. “Testing for Unit Root in Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panels.” Economics Letters, vol. 104, no. 1, North-Holland, 2009, pp. 5–8, doi:10.1016/J.ECONLET.2009.03.018.
• Uludağ, Ahmet Serhat, and Asiye Öznur Ümit. “Türk Dünyası Ülkelerinin Katma Değerli Üretim ve Makroekonomik Performanslarının DEMATEL ve COPRAS Yöntemleriyle Analizi.” Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 45, Sosyoekonomi, 2020, pp. 139–64, doi:10.17233/SOSYOEKONOMI.2020.03.09.
• UNDP. Human Development Report 2009: Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development. 2009.
• Yorucu, Vedat. “Income Convergence of Central Asian Turkic Republics: A Panel Study for Beta and Sigma Convergences for Six Asian Economies.” Economic Papers, vol. 32, no. 2, Wiley-Blackwell, 2013, pp. 258–64, doi:10.1111/1759-3441.12024.