Soykırımın Rasyonalitesini Çözümlemek: Hocalı ve Srebrenitsa’nın Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Abstract

Siyaset bilimi ve soykırım çalışmaları alanındaki tartışmalarda soykırımın meydana gelmesine ilişkin en uygun açıklamaları stratejik yaklaşımın sunduğu görüşü yaygınlık kazanmıştır. Bu yaklaşıma göre, sivillere karşı şiddet kullanma kararının ardındaki temel itici güç irrasyonel bir saldırganlıktan ziyade stratejik çıkarları gerçekleştirmeye yönelik rasyonel seçimlerdir. Fakat soykırımın nasıl ve hangi koşullar altında saldırgan taraf için stratejik amaçlarına ulaşmada rasyonel bir seçenek olarak görüldüğü yeterince ele alınmamıştır. Srebrenitsa ve Hocalı örneklerinin karşılaştırmalı analizini sunan bu çalışma, soykırımın gerekçesini oluşturan stratejik, siyasi ve ideolojik faktörleri keşfetmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Her iki örneğin derinlemesine incelenmesiyle elde edilen bulgular, soykırımın failler için düşük riskli bir seçenek hâline gelmesinde birbiriyle ilişkili üç temel faktörün rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Bunlar, mağdur tarafın silahlı direniş gösterme kapasitelerinin sınırlı olması sonucunda karşı saldırı riskinin azalması, uluslararası toplumun müdahale etme konusundaki isteksizliğinin farkına varılması ile etnik temizlik ve soykırım yoluyla elde edilen demografik dönüşümün çatışma sonrasında bir kazanım olarak korunabileceği beklentisidir.

Keywords

• Soykırım
• Karabağ
• Hocalı
• katliam
• Srebrenitsa

Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica

Abstract

Within the scholarly debates in political science and genocide studies, an increasingly prevailing view posits that the most adequate explanation for the occurrence of genocide is the strategic approach. According to this view, the main impetus behind the decision to use violence against civilians is not irrational barbarism but rational choices to realize strategic interests. However, how and under what circumstances genocide becomes a rational choice for aggressors in pursuing their strategic objectives has remained largely unexplored. Through a comparative analysis of the cases of Srebrenica and Khojaly, this study seeks to uncover the strategic, political, and ideological factors that underpin the rationale for genocide. The findings show that the viability of genocide as a low-risk option is underpinned by three interrelated factors. These are the recognition of the limited capacity of the victims to mount armed resistance, resulting in a reduced or negligible risk of counterattack; the awareness of the international community’s reluctance to intervene; and the expectation that demographic transformation through ethnic cleansing and genocide could be preserved as a beneficial post-conflict resource.

Keywords

• Genocide
• Karabakh
• Khojaly
• massacre
• Srebrenica

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