Geçiş Ülkelerinde Devlet Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Kırgızistan ve Tacikistan Örneği

Abstract

Sovyetler Birliği dağıldıktan sonra bu birliğe üye olan ülkeler piyasa ekonomisine geçmeye başlamışlardır. Geçişin ilk yıllarında ülkelerin çoğu ekonomik ve siyasi krizlerle karşılaşmışlardır. Her ülke, kendi ekonomik durumunu göz önüne alarak para ve maliye politikası seçmişlerdir. Ekonomik durumları benzer olmasına rağmen, Kırgızistan ve Tacikistan farklı maliye politikasını uygulamaktadırlar. Son yıllarda Kırgızistan genişletici maliye politikası uygularken, Tacikistan daraltıcı maliye politikasını seçmiş bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Kırgızistan ile Tacikistan’da kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler, 2000:1 – 2013:4 dönemine ait çeyrek veriler ve Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, her iki ülkede de GSYİH ile kamu harcamaları arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır. Granger nedensellik testine göre, Kırgızistan’da kamu harcamalarından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Fakat Tacikistan’da kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme,Kamu Harcamaları,Engle-Granger Eşbütünleşme Testi,Granger Nedensellik Testi,Daraltıcı Maliye Politikası,Genişletici Maliye Politikası

Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Abstract

After the collapse of Soviet Union the membercountries was accompanied by economic and political crises. Each country has chosen own monetary and fiscal policy considering the economic situation. Even though that their economic situation is similar, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are pursuing opposite fiscal policy. More precisely, Kyrgyzstan in recent years has changed its fiscal policy towards expansionary policy, when Tajikistan is continuing contractionary policy. This paper analyses the long and the short-run causality relationships between government expenditure and economic growth in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to reveal the results of such fiscal policies on real output, using Engle-Granger Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests.Results show that, over the 2000:1-2013:4 period, there is a long run relationship between GDP and government expenditure in both countries. According to Granger Causality Test it was found anunidirectional causality from government expenditures to economic growth in Kyrgyzstan. But Granger causality test on economy ofTajikistan does not give any causality relations between these variables.  

Keywords

• Economic Growth,Government Expenditure,Engle-Granger Cointegration Test,Granger Causality Test,Contractionary Fiscal Policy,Expansionary Fiscal Policy

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