Suriye Krizi’nde Türkiye ve İran Arasındaki Stratejik Etkileşim: 2011-2015 Zaman Diliminin Oyun Kuramsal Analizi

Year 2018, Issue: 87, 203 - 227, 30.10.2018

Buğra Sarı

Abstract

Suriye Krizi, Türkiye ve İran’ın Ortadoğu bölgesine dair çatışan stratejik çıkarlarını gün yüzüne çıkarmıştır. Nitekim Türkiye Suriye Krizi’ne
dair Beşar Esad rejimine dair politikalar izlerken; İran Esad rejiminin
iktidarda kalması için kaynaklarını seferber etmiştir. Türkiye ve İran’ın
Suriye Krizi minvalinde çatışan bu politikaları iki ülkenin bölgesel
hedefleriyle yakından ilişkilidir. Bu argüman temelinden yola çıkarak,
eldeki çalışma Türkiye ve İran’ın bölgesel ihtiraslarını bağımsız değişken ve bu iki ülkenin Suriye Krizi’nde çatışan politikalarını bağımlı
değişken olarak ele alarak bu iki değişken arasındaki neden-sonuç
ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Bundaki amaç Astana Süreci öncesi zaman
dilimi olan 2011-2015 yılları arasında Türkiye ve İran’ın Suriye Krizi’nde izledikleri politikaların içerisinde bu iki ülkenin birbirleriyle
çatışan bölgesel ihtirasların rolünü ortaya koymaktır. Çalışma bunu
yaparken, neden-sonuç ilişkilerini sistematik biçimde gösterme imkânı
sağlaması hasebiyle oyun kuramsal yaklaşımı araştırma yöntemi olarak
kullanmaktadır. 

Keywords

Türkiye, İran, Suriye Krizi, Ortadoğu, Oyun Kuramsal Analiz, Tercih Sıralaması, Nash Dengesi

The Strategic Interaction between Turkey and Iran in the Syrian Crisis: A Game Theoretical Analysis of the Time Frame from 2011 to 2015

Abstract

The Syrian crisis has revealed the clashing strategic interests of Turkey
and Iran. The two states are pursuing opposite policies on the Syrian
crisis to such an extent that Turkish regional policies concentrate on
the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, whereas Iran devotes its
resources to helping the regime stay in power. The reasons of these
clashing policies are important that they reflect regional objectives
of Turkey and Iran. In this respect, this study investigates the causal
relationship between the regional ambitions of Turkey and Iran, as
the independent variable, and the contradictory policies of these two
countries in the Syrian crisis, as the dependent variable. By doing so,
it aims to articulate the role of Turkish and Iranian regional ambitions by taking into account their clashing policies towards the Syrian
crisis from 2011 to 2015, the time frame before the Astana Process.
As of the methodology, this study applies game theoretical modeling
because this methodology helps manifestation of a cause-and-effect
relationship in a systematized way. 

Keywords

Turkey, Iran, Syrian Crisis, the Middle East, Game Theoretical Analysis, Preference Ordering, Nash Equilibrium

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