Debt-Trap Diplomacy of China towards the Turkestan Republics

Year 2025, Issue: 115, 57 - 84, 27.10.2025

Serdar Yılmaz , Abzal Dosbolov

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8350

Abstract

Following their independence in 1991, the Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan developed active relations with major global and regional actors, including the United States, Russia, Europe, Türkiye, and China. Among these, China emerged as a particularly influential partner by deepening its economic and diplomatic engagement. Kazakhstan, the largest and wealthiest of the three, holds special strategic importance due to its abundant natural resources and its geographic position as a gateway to the West. Consequently, this study first examines the dynamics of the Chinese-Kazakh relationship, focusing on China’s use of debt-trap diplomacy within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The analysis adopts dependency theory to explain the nexus between debt reliance and economic growth, supported by data on bilateral trade volumes and BRI-related projects. The paper also highlights the rise of Sinophobia in Kazakhstan, reflecting growing mistrust toward Chinese influence. Before concluding, the study compares China’s debt and trade relations across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, assessing the broader scope of debt-trap diplomacy in the region. Using a descriptive case study and documentary analysis, the paper argues that China employs debt-trap diplomacy both to expand markets for its goods and to advance strategic goals by fostering one-sided economic dependence in Turkestan republics.

Keywords

Turkestan Republics , China , Debt-Trap Diplomacy , BRI Project , Sinophobia

Çin’in Türkistan Cumhuriyetlerine Yönelik Borç-Tuzak Diplomasisi

Abstract

1991’de bağımsızlıklarını kazanmalarının ardından Kazakistan, Kırgızistan ve Özbekistan Cumhuriyetleri; Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Rusya, Avrupa, Türkiye ve Çin dâhil olmak üzere küresel ve bölgesel aktörlerle aktif ilişkiler geliştirmiştir. Bu aktörler arasında Çin, ekonomik ve diplomatik ilişkilerini derinleştirerek özellikle etkili bir ortak hâline gelmiştir. Üç ülke arasında en büyük ve en zengin olan Kazakistan, hem bol doğal kaynakları hem de Batı’ya açılan kapı konumuyla özel bir stratejik öneme sahiptir. Bu nedenle, çalışma öncelikle Çin’in Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi (BRI) çerçevesinde borç tuzağı diplomasisini kullanarak Kazakistan ile geliştirdiği ilişkileri incelemektedir. Bu çalışma, borç bağımlılığı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki bağı açıklamak için bağımlılık teorisini benimsemekte ve bu teoriyi ikili ticaret hacimleri ve BRI ile ilgili projeler hakkındaki verilerle desteklemektedir. Çalışma ayrıca, Çin’in etkisine yönelik artan güvensizliği yansıtan Kazakistan’da Çin düşmanlığının yükselişini de vurgulamaktadır. Sonuç bölümünden önce, Çin’in Kazakistan, Kırgızistan ve Özbekistan ile borç ve ticaret ilişkileri karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmakta ve bölgede borç tuzağı diplomasisinin kapsamı değerlendirilmektedir. Betimleyici bir vaka çalışması ve doküman analizi yöntemine dayanan bu araştırma, Çin’in borç tuzağı diplomasisini hem malları için yeni pazarlar yaratmak, stratejik hedeflerini ilerletmek, diplomatik nüfuzunu artırmak hem Türkistan cumhuriyetlerinde tek yönlü ekonomik bağımlılık tesis etmek için kullandığını savunmaktadır.

Keywords

Türkistan Cumhuriyetleri , Çin , Borç-Tuzak Diplomasisi , KYG Projesi , Sinofobi

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