Orta Karadeniz bölgesindeki doğal orman alanlarında Anadolu karaçamının (Pinus nigra Arnold.) potansiyel dağılım model ve haritalarının belirlenmesi

Abstract

Determination of model maps for the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold.) in natural forest areas in the Central Black Sea region Özdemir ŞENTÜRK 1*, Serkan GÜLSOY 2, Mehmet Güvenç NEGİZ 3, Fatih KARAKAYA 2 ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-6070; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2011-8324; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6338-3307; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6534-6382 1 Gölhisar Vocational School, Departmant of Forestry, Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Gölhisar, Burdur, Turkey 2 Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey 3 Sütçüler Prof. Dr. Hasan GÜRBÜZ Vocational School, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Sütçüler, Isparta, Turkey *Corresponding author: e-mail: [e-mail] Orta Karadeniz bölgesindeki doğal orman alanlarında Anadolu karaçamının (Pinus nigra Arnold.) potansiyel dağılım model ve haritalarının belirlenmesi Özet Bu çalışma Vezirköprü yöresinde Anadolu karaçamının potansiyel dağılımının modellemesi ve haritalaması amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. 586 örnek alanda türün var / yok verisi toplanmıştır. Sayısal yükseklik modeli kullanılarak çevresel değişkenler (yükselti, eğim, anakaya, radyasyon indeksi vb.) elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, WorldClim veri tabanında iklim değişkenleri indirilmiştir. Türün potansiyel dağılım modellemesinde Genelleştirilmiş Eklemeli Model ve Sınıflandırma (GAM) ve Regresyon Ağacı Tekniği (CART) kullanılmıştır. GAM modele ait geçerlilik oranı 0,84, çapraz geçerlilik katsayısı ise 0,82 bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, CART modelin geçerlilik (ROC) değerleri eğitim verisi için 0,804, test verisi için ise 0,750 bulunmuştur. CART yöntemine göre, 650 m’nin üzerindeki yükseltiler ve meta-kumtaşının olmadığı yerler türün potansiyel dağılımına uygundur. Metakumtaşının olduğu kısımlarda ise, yıllık ortalama sıcaklığın 7,6 – 11,0 ° C arasında ve eğimin %23’ten büyük olduğu yerler türün potansiyel dağılım alanlarını oluşturmaktadır. GAM yönteminde gabro, ofiyolitik melanj, serpantin ve karışık anakaya tiplerinin olduğu, eğimli arazi yapısına sahip 600 – 1150 m arasındaki yükseltiler ve yıllık ortalama sıcaklığının 8,5 – 11,3 °C olduğu yerlerde türün potansiyel dağılımı ile örtüşmüştür. Her iki yöntemde anakaya tipleri, iklim ve yükselti değişenlerinin türün yöredeki potansiyel dağılım alanlarında daha etkili olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Modellerde yer alan değişkenlerde bir takım farklılıklar olmasına rağmen, elde edilen potansiyel dağılım haritaları oldukça örtüşmüştür. Sonuç olarak, çalışmada elde edilen bilgiler türün ağaçlandırma ve gençleştirme gibi ormancılık uygulamaları ile iklim değişimi gibi süreçlerde izlenmesi için önem arz etmektedir. Anahtar kelimeler: genelleştirilmiş eklemeli model, sınıflandırma ve regresyon ağacı, tür dağılım modellemesi; Vezirköprü

Keywords

• genelleştirilmiş eklemeli model
• sınıflandırma ve regresyon ağacı
• tür dağılım modellemesi
• Vezirköprü

Determination of model maps for the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold.) in natural forest areas in the Central Black Sea region

Abstract

Özdemir ŞENTÜRK 1*, Serkan GÜLSOY 2, Mehmet Güvenç NEGİZ 3, Fatih KARAKAYA 2 ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-6070; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2011-8324; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6338-3307; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6534-6382 1 Gölhisar Vocational School, Departmant of Forestry, Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Gölhisar, Burdur, Turkey 2 Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey 3 Sütçüler Prof. Dr. Hasan GÜRBÜZ Vocational School, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Sütçüler, Isparta, Turkey *Corresponding author: e-mail: [e-mail] Abstract The purpose of this study was to determine potential distribution modeling and mapping of Anatolian black pine in the Vezirköprü district. Presence / absence data of the species was collected from 586 sample areas. Environmental variables (elevation, slope, bedrock, radiation index etc.) were obtained from the digital maps. In addition, climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim database. Generalized Additive Model and Classification and Regression Tree were used for potential distribution modeling of the species. The validation value of Generalized Additive Model was 0.84 while the cross-validation test value was found to be 0.82. Also, the ROC values of the tree model were found to be 0.804 for the training data set and 0.750 for the testing data set. According to the Classification and Regression Tree method, the locations above 650 m and without meta-sandstone are suitable for the potential distribution of the species. Under the condition that there is meta-sandstone, the areas where the temperature is between 7.6-11.0 °C and the slope degree is more than 23% coincide with the potential distribution of the species. Also, Generalized Additive Model showed that places where gabbro, ophiolitic melange, serpentine, and mixed material were seen as main bedrock type, sloping sites where average elevation was from 600 to 1150 m and temperature is between approximately 8.5-11.3 °C were the most suitable conditions for the potential distribution of the species in the district. In both models, it was determined that especially rock formations, climatic variable, and altitude are effective in the potential distribution of the species. On the other hand, although there are some differences in the variables in the models, the potential distribution maps formed by these variables overlapped quite. As a result, the information obtained in the study is important for the forestry practices such as afforestation, regeneration and the monitoring the species under future climate change conditions. Keywords: generalized additive model; classification and regression tree; species distribution model; Vezirköprü

Keywords

• generalized additive model
• classification and regression tree
• species distribution model
• Vezirköprü

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