A Comparison of Risks Assessment for the Project Phase of Solar Power Plant Installation with FMEA Pareto and AHP Methods

Abstract

As a result of the rapid depletion of fuels, high costs and environmental concerns which is in today’s conditions in energy production by traditional methods cause rapid orientation to renewable energy sources. In this context, the number of alternative researches and studies on the phenomenon of energy, which has become an indicator of the development of countries, has increased steadily. Taking measures by analysing possible failures and risks in the establishment and operation of renewable energy plants is of great importance in terms of cost control, efficiency, sustainability of production and ensuring the safety of life and property. For this reason, in this study, failures and risks occurring in the projecting stage, which is the first and important stage of the installation of solar power plants (SPP), which are among the sustainable and renewable energy sources that have become an important part of our lives are analysed using Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA). In the FMEA analysis, the precautions that can be taken against the mistakes and risks that may be encountered regarding the researched subject were investigated. In addition, the opinions of experts on this subject expressed in the literature and researches were also taken into consideration. Then, with the Pareto analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method systematic, the order of importance of the risks was determined and the similarities between them were tried to be determined.

Keywords

• Solar power plant (SPP)
• Solar energy
• Risk Assessment
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Pareto Analysis
• Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

References

1. [1] E. Can, “Analysis of risks that are based on the aerial photography used in photogrammetric monitoring maps for environmental wind power energy plant projects”, Environ Monit Assess., vol. 191, number. 746, 2019, DOI: 10.1007/s10661-019-7944-8
2. [2] U. U. Dündar, and M. A. Ertem, Risk assessment guide for the installation of solar power plants, TMMOB Chamber of Mechanical Engineers, pp.27, Ankara, 2016.
3. [3] B. Çetin, and H. Avcı, “Technical and economic analysis of the conversion on an existing coal-fired thermal power plant to solar-aided hybrid power plant”, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 1027-1045, 2020, DOI: 10.17341/gazimmfd.418417
4. [4] Alternatürk, “Usage areas of solar energy”. 2020. https://www.alternaturk.org/gunes-enerjisi-kullanim-alanlari.php [Accessed: June 16, 2020].
5. [5] Energy Five Clean Energy Portal, “What are the advantages and disadvantages of solar energy?”. 2021. https://www.enerjibes.com/gunes-enerjisinin-avantajlari-dezavantajlari-nelerdir/ [Accessed: January 03, 2021].
6. [6] Y. Şimşek, “Risk management approach and risk analysis in solar thermal energy projects”, M.Sc Thesis, ITU Energy Institute Department of Energy Science and Technology, Istanbul, Turkey pp. 106, 2014.
7. [7] S. Pervee, H. Ashfaq, and M. Asjad, “Reliability assessment of solar photovoltaic systems based on fuzzy fault tree analysis”, Life Cycle Reliab Saf Eng, vol. 8, pp. 129–139, 2019, DOI: 10.1007/s41872-018-0068-2
8. [8] H. Yörükoğlu, C. Özkale, B. Özkan, and C. Çelik, “The analysis of the risks of renewable energy resources by using fuzzy FMEA technique”, Dumlupınar University Journal of Social Sciences Special Issue of XIV. International Symposium on Econometrics, Operations Research and Statistics, pp. 227-242, October 2014.

9. [9] M. Villarini, V. Cesarotti, L. Alfonsi, and V. Introna, “Optimization of photovoltaic maintenance plan by means of a FMEA approach based on real data”, Energy Convers Manag, vol. 152, pp. 1–12, 2017, DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2017.08.090
10. [10] A. Colli, “Failure mode and effect analysis for photovoltaic systems”, Renew Sust Energ Rev, vol 50, pp. 804–809, 2015, DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.05.056
11. [11] A. Yılancı, “Performance analysis of a photovoltaic panel cooled by thermoelectric effect”, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 619-634, 2020, DOI: 10.17341/gazimmfd.494485
12. [12] M. Molhanec, Model based FMEA method for solar modules, Proceedings of 36th Int. Spring Seminar on ElectronicsTechnology, pp. 183-188, 08-12 May 2013, DOI: 10.1109/ISSE.2013.6648239
13. [13] J. Suh, and J. R. S. Brownson, “Solar farm suitability using geographic information system fuzzy sets and analytic hierarchy processes: Case study of Ulleung Island, Korea”, Energies, vol. 9, issue. 8, no. 648, 2016, DOI: 10.3390/en9080648
14. [14] M. K. Anser, M. Mohsin, Q. Abbas, and I. S. Chaudhry, “Assessing the integration of solar power projects: SWOT-based AHP–F-TOPSIS case study of Turkey”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 27, pp. 31737–31749, 2020, DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-09092-6
15. [15] H. C. Liu, L. Liu, and N. Liu, “Risk evaluation approaches in failure mode and effects analysis: A literature review”, Expert Syst Appl, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 828-838, 2013, DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2012.08.010
16. [16] B. Akın, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) in ISO 9000 Applications, Businesses. Bilim Teknik Yayınevi, Istanbul, pp. 182, (in Turkish), 1998.
17. [17] Y. M. Wang, K. S. Chin, G. K. K. Poon, and J. B. Yang, “Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy weighted geometric mean”, Expert Syst Appl, vol. 36, issue. 2, pp. 1195-1207, 2009, DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2007.11.028
18. [18] K. S. Chin, Y. M. Wang, G. K. K. Poon, and J. B. Yang, “Failure mode and effects analysis using a group-based evidential reasoning approach”, Computers & Operations Research, vol. 36, issue. 6, pp. 1768–1779, 2009, DOI: 10.1016/j.cor.2008.05.002
19. [19] S. B. Tsai, J. Yu, L. Ma, F. Luo, J. Zhou, Q. Chen, and L. Xu, “A study on solving the production process problems of the photovoltaic cell industry”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev, vol. 82, pp. 3546–3553, 2018, DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.10.105
20. [20] X. Su, Y. Deng, S. Mahadevan, and Q. Bao, “An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of aircraft engine rotor blades”, Eng Fail Anal, vol. 26, pp. 164-174, 2012, DOI: 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2012.07.009
21. [21] N. Xiao, H. Z. Huang, Y. Li, L. He, and T. Jin, “Multiple failure modes analysis and weighted risk priority number evaluation in FMEA”, Eng Fail Anal, vol. 18, pp. 1162-1170, 2011, DOI: 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2011.02.004
22. [22] S. Özcan, “Pareto analysis, one of statistical process control technics, and an application in the cement industry”, Sivas Cumhuriyet University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 151-174, 2001.
23. [23] A. Saral, and N. Musaoğlu, Flood risk analysis with the Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and information diffusion methods. 13. Turkey Surveying Scientific and Technical Conference, Ankara, 18-22. April 2011.
24. [24] A. Kuruüzüm, and N. Atsan, “The analytic hierarchy process approach and its applications in business”, Akdeniz IIBF Journal. Vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 83-105, 2001.
25. [25] N. Ömürbek, S. Üstündağ, and Ö. C. Helvacıoğlu, “Use of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in location decision: A study in Isparta Region”, Journal of Management Sciences, vol. 11, no. 21, pp. 101-116, 2013.
26. [26] M. Soba, and T. Bildik, “Determining the selection of faculty place in towns by using analytic hierarchy process”, Kafkas University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences Facult, vol. 4, no. 5, pp. 51-63, 2013.
27. [27] T. L. Saaty, “A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures”, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, vol. 15, pp. 234-281, 1977, DOI: 10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5
28. [28] T. L. Saaty, “The analytic hierarchy and analytic network measurement processes: Applications to decisions under risk”, European Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 122-196, 2008, DOI: 10.29020/nybg.ejpam.v1i1.6
29. [29] M. Mutlu, and M. Sarı, “Multi-criteria decision making methods and use of in mining industry”, Scientific Mining Journal, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 181-196, 2017.
30. [30] T. L. Saaty, Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory. 2. Edition, RWS Publications, pp. 478, Pittsburgh, 2000.
31. [31] S. Drobne, and A. Lisec, “Multi-attribute decision analysis in GIS: weighted linear combination and ordered weighted averaging”, Informatica an International Journal of Computing and Informatics, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 459-474, 2009.