Evaluation of November 23, 2022, Duzce Earthquake data with Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Abstract

An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.9 Mw occurred in Düzce (Gölyaka) on November 23, 2022. A rupture occurred on the Karadere Segment, which is a section of the North Anatolian Fault zone. According to the investigations, an 8 km section that was not broken in the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake was broken by this earthquake and caused the earthquake. Station number 8105, one of the stations of the Disaster and Emergency Presidency, measured the maximum ground acceleration of the earthquake as 0.6g. This value is above the PGA value taken from the hazard map of the region. This earthquake in the Marmara region attracts the attention of researchers both because it is close to the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake and because there is an earthquake expectation in Istanbul and its surroundings. Ground motion prediction equations are created by researchers to predict the effects of future earthquakes. The aim of this study is to compare the earthquake data considered in the study with 5 of the ground motion equations developed for Turkey. PGA data were collected and compared with the 5 attenuation relations used from the stations taking measurements from the earthquake, and the compatibility of the earthquake with the 5 existing models was examined. As a result of the study, it was determined that among these attenuation relations, the attenuation relations prepared using the data in the region where the earthquake occurred showed a higher fit. In addition, it has been observed that low pga values at stations farther from the epicenter of the earthquake fit better with the curves obtained from the attenuation relations. The number of data sets used in attenuation relations and the study area increase the possibility of estimating earthquake parameters. The data set used in the AR4 attenuation relationship used in the study and the fact that the region taken into consideration is the region where the earthquake occurred increased the data-model compatibility. It was concluded that existing attenuation relationships should be updated in order to better predict future earthquakes and their effects.

Keywords

• GMPE
• Gölyaka
• Earthquake
• Past-Earthquake Assessment
• Attenuation Relationships

References

1. [1] H. Sezen, A. S. Whittaker, K. J. Elwood, and K. M. Mosalam, “Performance of reinforced concrete buildings during the August 17, 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake, and seismic design and construction practise in Turkey,” Eng. Struct., vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 103–114, 2003.
2. [2] DEMA, “23 Kasım 2022 Gölyaka Duzce Depremine İlişkin Ön Değerlendirme Raporu,”.2023 [Online]. Available: https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/assets/pdf/23kasim2022GolyakaDuzceMW59.pdf. [Accessed: Sept 2023]
3. [3] DEU-DAUM, “23 Kasım 2022 Mw 5.9 Gölyaka Düzce Depremi Ön Gözlem ve Değerlendirme Raporu,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://daum.deu.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/rapor_Duzce-DEU-DAUM.pdf [Accessed: Sept 2023]
4. [4] İMO, “23.11.2022 Gölyaka-Düzce Depremi̇ Ön Değerlendi̇rme Raporu” 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.imo.org.tr/Eklenti/8115,golyaka-depremr-aporupdf.pdf?0&_tag1=D2A204FCD61ACD26AEB2AB1B4F74C5C48F66ED06 [Accessed: Sept 2023]
5. [5] Ö. Emre, “Active fault database of Turkey,” Bull. Earthq. Eng., vol. 16, no. 8, pp. 3229–3275, 2018.
6. [6] E. Sayın, “24 January 2020 Sivrice-Elazığ, Turkey earthquake: geotechnical evaluation and performance of structures,” Bull. Earthq. Eng., vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 657–684, 2021.
7. [7] Ö. F. Nemutlu, B. Balun, and A. Sarı, “Damage assessment of buildings after 24 January 2020 Elazığ-Sivrice earthquake,” Earthq. Struct., vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 325–335, 2021.
8. [8] A. Doǧangün, “Performance of reinforced concrete buildings during the May 1, 2003 Bingöl Earthquake in Turkey,” Eng. Struct., vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 841–856, 2004.

9. [9] M. Bikçe, “Türkiye’de Hasara Ve Can Kaybina Neden Olan Deprem Listesi(1900-2014),” in 3.Türkiye Deprem Mühendisliği ve Sismoloji Konferansı, 2015, pp. 1–10, [Online]. Available: http://www.tdmd.org.tr/TR/Genel/pdf2015/TDMSK_084.pdf.
10. [10] O. K. Gül, “27 Aralık 1939 Erincan Depreminin Sivas ve İlçelerine Etkileri,” J. World Turks, vol. 3, no. 2, 2011.
11. [11] M. Sunkar, “8 Mart 2010 Kovancılar-Okçular(Elazığ) Depremi;Yapı Malzemesi ve Yapı Tarzının Can ve Mal Kayıpları Üzerindeki Etkisi,” Türk Coğrafya Derg., no. 56, pp. 23–37, 2010.
12. [12] E. Işık, F. Avcil, A. Büyüksaraç, R. İzol, M.H. Arslan, C. Aksoylu, E. Harirchian, O. Eyisüren, E. Arkan, M.Ş. Güngür, M. Günay and H. Ulutaş, “Structural damages in masonry buildings in Adıyaman during the Kahramanmaraş (Turkiye) earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) on 06 February 2023”. Engineering Failure Analysis, 107405, 2023.
13. [13] E. Arkan, E. Işık, E. Harirchian, M. Topçubaşı, F. Avcil, “Architectural Characteristics and Determination Seismic Risk Priorities of Traditional Masonry Structures: A Case Study for Bitlis (Eastern Türkiye)”. Buildings, vol. 13, no. 4, p.1042, 2023.
14. [14] H. Bilgin, M. Nyarko-Hadzima, E. Işık, H.B. Özmen and E. Harirchian, “A comparative study on the seismic provisions of different codes for RC buildings”. Structural Engineering and Mechanics, An Int'l Journal, vol. 83, no. 2, pp. 195-206, 2022.
15. [15] A. Büyüksaraç, E. Işık and Ö. Bektaş, “A comparative evaluation of earthquake code change on seismic parameter and structural analysis; a case of Turkey”. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, vol. 47, no. 10, pp. 12301-12321, 2022.
16. [16] E. Bayrak, C. Ozer, H. Cakici, and M. E. Kocadagistan, “January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Turkey) Earthquake (Mw 6.8): Evaluation of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations and Microtremor Studies,” Turk Deprem Arastirma Derg., vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 125–148, 2021.
17. [17] S. Özalp, A. Kürçer, İ. Avcu ve Tayfun Güler Maden Tetkik ve Arama Genel Müdürlüğü, and J. Etütleri Dairesi, “23 Kasım 2022 Gölyaka (Düzce) Depremi (Mw 6,0) arazi gözlemleri ve kaynak faya ilişkin değerlendirmeler,” Gölyaka (Düzce) Depremi, vol. 3, no. August 1999, pp. 61–79, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://www.mta.gov.tr/mtayerbilimleri/.
18. [18] M. Kutanis, “Si̇smi̇k Tehli̇ke Anali̇zi̇,” Sakarya, 2004.
19. [19] B.D. Bulajic, G. Pavic and M. Nyarko-Hadzima, “PGA estimates for deep soils atop deep geological sediments-An example of Osijek, Croatia”. Geomechanics and Engineering, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 233-246, 2022.
20. [20] E. Işık, Y.L. Ekinci, N. Sayil, A. Büyüksaraç and M.C. Aydin, “Time-dependent model for earthquake occurrence and effects of design spectra onstructural performance: a case study from the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey”. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 215-234, 2021.
21. [21] L. Sabah, and H. Bayraktar, “Düzce Merkez ve İlçelerinin Deprem Senaryolarına Göre Karşılaştırmalı Olarak İncelenmesi”. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 1695-1705, 2020. [22] DEMA, “Turkey Seismic Code-2018 (TEC-2018)”. 2018.
22. [23] DEMA, “Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map.” Accessed: Oct. 12, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://tdth.afad.gov.tr/TDTH/main.xhtml.
23. [24] PEER, “Pacific Engineering Research Center Strong Ground Motion Database,” 2021. http://ngawest2.berkeley.edu.
24. [25] C. Özbey, A. Sari, L. Manuel, M. Erdik, and Y. Fahjan, “An empirical attenuation relationship for Northwestern Turkey ground motion using a random effects approach,” Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 115–125, 2004.
25. [26] E. Kalkan and P. Gülkan, “Empirical attenuation equations for vertical ground motion in Turkey,” Earthq. Spectra, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 853–882, 2004.
26. [27] E. Kalkan and P. Gülkan, “Site-dependent spectra derived from ground motion records in Turkey,” Earthq. Spectra, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 1111–1138, 2004.
27. [28] S. Akkar and Z. Çaǧnan, “A local ground-motion predictive model for Turkey, and its comparison with other regional and global ground-motion models,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., vol. 100, no. 6, pp. 2978–2995, 2010.
28. [29] S. Akkar and J. J. Bommer, “Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the mediterranean region, and the Middle East,” Seismol. Res. Lett., vol. 81, no. 2, pp. 195–206, 2010.
29. [30] E. Ulutas and M. F. Özer, “Empirical Attenuation Relationship of Peak Ground Acceleration for Eastern Marmara,” Arab. J. Sci. Eng., vol. 35, no. 1A, pp. 187–203, 2010.