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Organik Arpa ve Buğday Üretim Tahmini: Ağrı İli Örneği

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 176 - 184, 24.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.17798/bitlisfen.1005539

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye-Ağrı ilinde 2021-2024 yılları arasında organik buğday ve arpa üretimine yönelik trend analizini açıklamaktadır. Organik ürün üretimi için organik tarım çiftlik alanı trendi ve organik tarım işçisi trendi analiz edilmiştir. 2015 yılına kadar organik tarım alanları ve işçi sayısında artış olduğu ancak 2015-2020 yılları arasında durgunluk ve ardından düşüş trendinin yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Organik buğday üretiminde de benzer bir eğilim yaşanırken, 2008 yılından itibaren genel olarak organik arpa üretiminin arttığı belirlenmiştir. Organik tarım alanında 2021-2024 yılları tahminleri için Ağrı'da işçi sayısı, buğday ve arpa üretimi ilde, Exponential Growth Method, Quadratic Trend Analysis yöntemi ile 2007-2020 verilerine ayrı ayrı uygulanmış ve ideal tahmin verileri elde edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçları kapsamında önümüzdeki yıllarda organik arpa üretiminin artış trendinde olması, organik buğday üretiminin ise tam tersi olması beklenmektedir. Bu analiz sonuçları ışığında üreticilerin bilinçlendirilmesi ve düşüş trendlerinin tekrardan artış trendine çevrilmesi tarım üreticileri için büyük önem taşımaktadır.

References

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  • [16] Costamagna A.C., Werf W.V.D., Bianchi F.J.J.A., Landis D.A. 2007. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Agricultural and Forest Entomology 9: 297-305.
  • [17] Abid S., Raza I., Khalıl A., Khan M.N., Anwar S., Masood M.A. 2014. Trend Analysis and Forecasting Of Maize Area And Production İn Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. European Journal of Academic Research, 2: 4653-4664.
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  • [23] Sabır E.C., Batuk E. 2013. Demand Forecasting with of Using Time Series Models in Textile Dyeing-Finishing Mills. Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon, 23: 143-151.

Organic Barley and Wheat Production Forecast: The Case of Ağrı Province

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 176 - 184, 24.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.17798/bitlisfen.1005539

Abstract

This study explains the trend analysis for organic wheat and barley production in Turkey-Ağrı province between 2021 and 2024. For organic product production, the organic agricultural farm area trend and the organic agricultural worker trend have been analyzed. Until 2015, it has been determined that there was an increase in the number of organic agricultural areas and workers, but between 2015 and 2020 the trend of stagnation and then the downtrend had been occurred. While a similar trend has occurred in organic wheat production, it has been determined that organic barley production has been increasing overall since 2008. For the estimations of 2021-2024 years in the organic farming area, number of workers, wheat and barley production in Ağrı province, the Exponential Growth Method was applied separately to the 2007-2020 data with the Quadratic Trend Analysis method and ideal estimation data were tried to be obtained. Within the scope of the forecast results obtained, organic barley production is expected to be on an upward trend in the coming years, while organic wheat production is expected to be the opposite. In the light of these analysis results, it is of great importance for agricultural producers to raise awareness of producers and turn the downward trends back into an upward trend.

References

  • [1] Lyons G. 2002. Internet: investigating new technology's evolving role, nature and effects on transport. Transport Policy (Oxford) 9: 335-346.
  • [2] Caballini C., Agostino M., Chiara B.D. 2021. Physical mobility and virtual communication in Italy: Trends, analytical relationships and policies for the post COVID-19. Transport Policy (Oxford) 110: 314-334.
  • [3] Pins J.J., Kaur H. 2006. A Review of the Effects of Barley [beta]-Glucan on Cardiovascular and Diabetic Risk. Cereal Foods World, 51: 8-11.
  • [4] Cavazos A., de Mejia E.G. 2013. Identification of Bioactive Peptides from Cereal Storage Proteins and Their Potential Role in Prevention of Chronic Diseases. Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety 12: 364-380.
  • [5] Meyerowitz S. 2006. Wheatgrass: Nature's Finest Medicine : the Complete Guide to Using Grass Foods & Juices to Help Your Health. Sproutman Publications.
  • [6] Priyadarshan P.M. 2019. PLANT BREEDING: Classical to Modern”, Springer Nature.
  • [7] Igrejas G., Ikeda T.M., Guzmán C. 2020. Wheat Quality For Improving Processing And Human Health. Springer Nature Switzerland. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-34163-3
  • [8] TOB-a 2021. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/ktae/Belgeler/brosurler/Bu%C4%9Fday%20Tar%C4%B1m%C4%B1.pdf (Date of access: 10 June 2021).
  • [9] Sheng J., Shen L., Qiao Y., Yu M. and Fan B. 2009. Market trends and accreditation systems for organic food in China. Trends in Food Science and Technology, 20: 396-401.
  • [10] Morris D.M., Kimmins J.P., Duckert D.R. 1997. The use of soil organic matter as a criterion of the relative sustainability of forest management alternatives: a modelling approach using FORECAST. Forest Ecology and Management, 94: 61-78.
  • [11] Fedele A., Mazzi A., Niero M., Zuliani F., Scipioni A. 2014. Can the Life Cycle Assessment methodology be adopted to support a single farm on its environmental impacts forecast evaluation between conventional and organic production? An Italian case study. Journal of Cleaner Production 69: 49-59.
  • [12] FAO. 2017. The future of food and agriculture – Trends and challenges, Rome.
  • [13] Kumar S.N., Mishra B.B., Kumar S., Mandal J. 2021. Organo-arsenic Complexation Studies Explaining the Reduction of Uptake of Arsenic in Wheat Grown with Contaminated Irrigation Water and Organic Amendments. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 232: 118-128.
  • [14] TOB-b. 2021. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/Konular/Bitkisel-Uretim/Organik-Tarim/Istatistikler (Date of access: 14 June 2021).
  • [15] Khan F., Husain T., and Lumb A. 2003. Water Quality Evaluation and Trend Analysis in Selected Watersheds of the Atlantic Region of Canada. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 88: 221-248.
  • [16] Costamagna A.C., Werf W.V.D., Bianchi F.J.J.A., Landis D.A. 2007. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Agricultural and Forest Entomology 9: 297-305.
  • [17] Abid S., Raza I., Khalıl A., Khan M.N., Anwar S., Masood M.A. 2014. Trend Analysis and Forecasting Of Maize Area And Production İn Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. European Journal of Academic Research, 2: 4653-4664.
  • [18] McKenzie J. 2011. Mean absolute percentage error and bias in economic forecasting. Economics Letters 113: 259-262.
  • [19] Konarasinghe K.M.U.B. 2016. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: Post-War Period. International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics 3: 57-63.
  • [20] Khair U., Fahmi H., Hakim S.A. and Rahim R. 2017. Forecasting Error Calculation with Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. IOP Conference Series: Journal of Physics: Conference Series 930: 012002.
  • [21] TUIK. 2021. Turkey Statistical Institute. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/ (Date of access: 16 June 2021).
  • [22] Ruekkasaem L., Sasananan M. 2018. Forecasting Agricultural Products Prices Using Time Series Methods For Crop Planning. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 957 editor@iaeme.com International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 9: 957–971.
  • [23] Sabır E.C., Batuk E. 2013. Demand Forecasting with of Using Time Series Models in Textile Dyeing-Finishing Mills. Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon, 23: 143-151.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Araştırma Makalesi
Authors

Ayça Nur Şahin Demirel 0000-0003-2988-8448

Publication Date March 24, 2022
Submission Date October 6, 2021
Acceptance Date November 5, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 11 Issue: 1

Cite

IEEE A. N. Şahin Demirel, “Organic Barley and Wheat Production Forecast: The Case of Ağrı Province”, Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 176–184, 2022, doi: 10.17798/bitlisfen.1005539.

Bitlis Eren University
Journal of Science Editor
Bitlis Eren University Graduate Institute
Bes Minare Mah. Ahmet Eren Bulvari, Merkez Kampus, 13000 BITLIS