Human Development, Main Macroeconomic Variables and Terrorism in Middle East and North Africa: A Panel Causality Analysis

Year 2021, , 85 - 94, 30.06.2021

Ömer Faruk Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.47130/bitlissos.947740

Abstract

Terrorism has still a serious problem for many countries despite the improvements in combat with terrorism during the recent years. Many institutional, economic, and social factors have been documented as the possible causes of terrorism in the related literature. This research explores the reciprocal interaction between human development, main macroeconomic variables of real GDP per capita, unemployment, youth unemployment, and inflation and terrorism in Middle East and North African countries over the 2005-2019 period through causality analysis with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The causality analysis discovered a reciprocal interaction between human development, unemployment, youth unemployment, inflation and terrorism and a significant causality from real GDP per capita to the terrorism.

Keywords

Human development, real GDP per capita, unemployment, inflation, Middle East and North African countries

Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika'da İnsani Gelişme, Temel Makroekonomik Değişkenler ve Terörizm: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Son yıllarda terörizm ile mücadelede ilerlemeler kaydedilmesine rağmen, terörizm hala birçok ülke için ciddi bir sorundur. İlgili literatürde çok sayıda kurumsal, ekonomik ve sosyal faktör terörizmin olası nedenleri olarak tespit edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkatte alan nedensellik testi kullanılarak 2005-2019 döneminde orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde insani gelişme, kişi başına GSYİH, işsizlik ve genç işsizilik ve enflasyon temel makro ekonomik değişkenleri ile terörizm arasındaki karşılıklı etkileşimi araştırılmıştır. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda insani gelişme, işsizlik, genç işsizlik, enflasyon ve terörizm arasında karşılıklı bir etkileşim ve kişi başına düşen reel GSYİH'den terörizme doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

İnsani gelişme, kişi başına düşen reel GSYİH, işsizlik, enflasyon, Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika ülkeleri, panel nedensellik analizi.

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