TÜRKİYE’DEKİ REEL ÜCRETLER KONJONKTÜR YÖNLÜ MÜDÜR?

Abstract

Ekonomik konjonktür, reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki artışlar ve azalışlar olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki bu artışlara ve azalışlara reel ücretler konjonktür yönlü bir şekilde etki etmektedir. Ayrıca gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla içerisindeki reel ücretlerin payı da konjonktür yönlüdür. Bir konjonktürün temel özelliklerinden biri olan reel ücretlerin Türkiye ekonomisinde konjonktür yönlü olup olmadığının test edilmesi konjonktür kuramı için önemli bir ampirik kanıt teşkil etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde reel ücretlerin konjonktür yönlü olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada 1998–2012 dönemi için Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) veri tabanından derlenen çeyrek yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda VAR analizi yapılmış, etki tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırması elde edilmiştir. Yapılan testlerde elde edilen sonuçlara göre reel ücretler konjonktür kuramının tersine konjonktür ile aynı yönlü hareket etmemektedir.

Keywords

• Reel Ücret, Ekonomik Konjonktür

ARE THE REAL WAGES IN TURKEY PROCYCLICAL?

Abstract

Business cycle is defined as increases and decreases in real GDP. Real wages affect these increases and decreases in real GDP procyclically. Moreover, the share of real wages in real GDP is also procyclical. It is very important to test whether real wages, which are one of the basic characteristics of business cycle, are procyclical in the economy of Turkey, as this would provide an important evidence for the business cycle theory. In this study, It is searched that whether the real wages in Turkey are procyclical or not. For the 1998–2012 period, the quareterly data that is obtained from the Central Bank of Turkey is used. By using var analysis, cause and effect functions and the variance decomposition were derived. According to test results, contrary to business cycle theory, real wages are counter cyclical.

Keywords

• Real Wage, Business Cycle

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