Yatırım ve İthalat Uzun Dönemde İlişkilendirilebilir Mi?: Türkiye’den Kanıt

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1980-2019 periyodu için Türkiye’de ARDL tahmin tekniği kullanılarak yatırımlar ve ithalat arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisini analiz etmektir. Türkiye’nin gelişmekte olan bir ülke olmasının yanında ekonomik büyümesinin hammadde ve ara malı ithalatına bağlı olması nedeniyle, bu çalışmanın temel hipotezi; Türkiye’de uzun dönemde yatırımlardaki bir artışın ithalatta bir artışa yol açacağının iddia edilmesidir. ARDL sınır aracılığıyla uygulanan eş-bütünleşme test sonuçları; yatırım ve ithalat serilerinin eş-bütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak; Türkiye’de uzun dönem katsayı tahminleri ise yatırım ve ithalat arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki olduğu sonucunu göstermekte olup yatırım seviyesindeki %1’lik bir artışın ithalat seviyesinde %0.1673 kadarlık bir artışa neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda tanı test sonuçları incelendiğinde tahmin edilen modellerin oto korelasyon, değişen varyans, normalite ve model tanımlama açısından herhangi bir soruna sahip olmadığını sonucunu ifade etmektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• İthalat
• Yatırımlar
• ARDL

Are Investments and Imports Associated in the Long-term?: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the long-running association between investments and imports in Turkey using a dataset covering the 1980–2019 period, and employing the ARDL estimation technique. As a developing country, Turkey’s economic growth relies on the import of raw materials and intermediate goods, and so the main hypothesis of this study claims that increases in investments lead to increases in imports in the long term in Turkey. The results of co-integration ARDL bounds tests show the series of imports and investments to be co-integrated, while long-term coefficient estimations reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between import and investment series, and that a 1% increase in investments leads to a 0.1673% increase in imports in the long term in Turkey. Furthermore, diagnostic tests reveal the estimated model to have problems in terms of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, normality and model specification.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Imports
• Investment
• ARDL

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