THE GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC IMPACT OF LNG AND PIPELINE COMPETITION ON EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY

Year 2017, Issue: ICOMEP 2017 ÖZEL SAYISI, 43 - 73, 31.12.2017

Azime Telli Serpin İşıl Demirtaş

Abstract

The demand
for natural gas demand is expected to increase more rapidly than coal
and oil in the middle and long-term due to the decline of prices, the abundance
of supply, and the initiatives for reducing the carbon emission: Moreover,
predictions suggest a 50% increase in natural gas demand over the next 25
years even for the worst case scenario where the growth rate remains at
the same level as it did for the last 17 year: This situation deepened the
competition in the natural gas market to the point of triggering a
structural transformation process in the market. The natural gas market that
used to have a regional outlook by its structure, currently evolves in the
direction of globalization due to the inevitable rise of the LNG demand.
Originally developed to exceed geographical impossibilities, LNG has become a
rival of the pipeline. The share of LNG is rapidly increasing with the
emergence of new supply and demand center: LNG has become a viable option for
countries seeking to diversify resources with price distortions between pipe
gas and LNG in favor of LNG. Countries that have a "sensitive"
interdependence relation due to existing pipeline infrastructures, are
undergoing a surge in LNG demand and the current and planned pipelines
are becoming increasingly controversial. It is predicted that the market
share will increase to 40% -45% by doubling the LNG demand in the next 25 year:
For this reason, the proposed study will focus on geopolitical and
geoeconomic factors that trigger competition between LNG and pipeline ga:
In the study, the impact of LNG-pipe gas competition on new pipeline
investments will be questioned. For this purpose, the future of Russia's new
pipeline projects, North Stream-2 and Turkish Stream-2, will be questioned. The
evolution process in the natural gas market will also be included in the
content of analysis method.

Keywords

LNG, pipeline gas, pipelines, North Stream, Turkish Stream, Energy Security

JEOPOLİTİK VE JEOEKONOMİK PERSPEKTİFTEN LNG-BORU HATLARI REKABETİNİN AVRUPA ENERJİ GÜVENLİĞİNE ETKİLERİ

Abstract

Dünya birincil enerji karmasında ilk üçte yer alan doğal
gaza yönelik talebin fiyatların düşmesi, arz bolluğu ve karbon emisyonunu
azaltmadaki rolü nedeniyle orta ve uzun vadede petrol ve kömürden daha hızlı
artması beklenmektedir. Üstelik bu tahminlere göre; büyüme oranının geçtiğimiz
17 yılla aynı olması durumunda bile gelecek 25 yıl içinde doğal gaz talebinde %
50’lik artış olacaktır. Doğal gaz pazarında rekabeti derinleştiren bu durum yapısal
dönüşüm sürecinin tetikleyicisi olmuştur. Yapısı itibari ile bölgesel bir
görünüm arz eden ve devletlerin ana aktörler olduğu doğal gaz pazarı LNG
talebinin önlenemez yükselişine bağlı olarak küreselleşme doğrultusunda
evrilmektedir. Başlangıçta coğrafi imkânsızlıkları aşmak için geliştirilen LNG
günümüzde boru gazının rakibi durumuna gelmiştir. LNG’nin payı yeni arz ve
talep ülkelerinin ortaya çıkmasıyla hızlı bir şekilde artmaktadır. Boru gazı ve
LNG arasındaki fiyat makasının LNG lehine bozulmasıyla birlikte kaynak
çeşitlendirmesi arayışında olan ülkeler için LNG makul bir seçenek haline
gelmiştir. Boru hatlarının yarattığı karşılıklı bağımlılık ilişkisinde “hassas” konumda olan ülkelerin LNG
taleplerinin artışa geçmesi mevcut ve planlanan boru hatlarının akıbetlerini
tartışmalı hale getirmiştir. Gelecek 25 yılda LNG talebinin iki katı artarak
pazar payının %40- %45 oranına yükseleceği öngörülmektedir. Bu nedenle çalışma
LNG ve boru gazı arasındaki rekabeti tetikleyen jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik
unsurlara odaklanacaktır. Çalışmada LNG-boru gazı rekabetinin yeni boru hattı
yatırımlarına etkisi sorgulanacaktır. Bu amaçla, Rusya’nın yeni boru hattı
projeleri Kuzey Akım-2 ve Türk Akımı-2’nin geleceği sorgulanacaktır. İçerik
analizi yönteminin kullanılacağı çalışmada doğal gaz piyasasının içinde
bulunduğu evrim sürecine de yer verilecektir.

Keywords

LNG, boru gazı, boru hatları, Kuzey Akım, Türk Akımı, enerji güvenliği

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