Long-run Asymmetric Association between Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 18, 58 - 64, 31.12.2020

Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu , Mustafa Ünver

Abstract

This study aims to analyze asymmetric association between economic growth rate and growth rate of imported goods and services in Turkey for the periods of 1988-2019 by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and two distinct indicators of economic growth rate. According to the estimation results, there exists a nonlinear cointegration relationship between economic growth rate and growth rate of imports. NARDL (2,2) model is estimated to determine the presence of any asymmetric link in short-run/long-run. We identified an asymmetric relationship between the series in the long-run but not in the short-run. Estimation findings of the first model disclose that a rise in growth rate of imports by 1% causes a rise in economic growth rate by 0.606% while a decrease in growth rate of imports by 1% leads to a drop in economic growth rate by 0.565%. On the other hand, according to the estimation results of the second model, a jump in growth rate of imports by 1% causes to an increase in economic growth rate by 0.574% whereas a drop in growth rate of imports by 1% leads to a decrease in economic growth rate by 0.535%. Also model diagnostic tests imply that the model do not contain autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, model misspecification and non-normality problems.

Keywords

Economic Growth, Import, NARDL

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