GIS-Based Empirical Bayesian Kriging for Spatial Modeling of Electromagnetic Pollution from High-Voltage Power Lines: Erzurum Case Study

Abstract

In urban areas, extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields (ELF-EMF) generated by high-voltage power lines (HVPL) have been associated with cancer, neurological disorders, and cognitive development problems in children, emerging as a significant public health threat. Therefore, reliable modeling of ELF-EMF distribution is a critical requirement for urban planning. However, studies on the spatial modeling of ELF-EMF levels in outdoor environments remain limited, and existing methods have been insufficient in capturing heterogeneous spatial patterns. The aim of this study is to develop an Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK)-based spatial model to reveal the heterogeneous characteristics of ELF-EMF pollution in urban areas and to integrate built environment variables (building footprints, terrain elevation, and line components) into the spatial estimation process. Measurements conducted along an HVPL corridor in Erzurum demonstrated that an average buffer distance of 140-150 meters from the line axis is required to reach the precautionary threshold value of 0.2 µT referenced from the World Health Organization (WHO). Around transmission towers, the same threshold is attained at distances of approximately 60-70 m. These buffer distances were calculated based on the points at which the measured magnetic field strength fell below 0.2 µT as a function of horizontal distance. The analyses identified not only linear risk corridors but also spatial risk focal zones formed by local maximum values on the EBK interpolation surface. The findings reveal that the current 5-meter building clearance regulation is inadequate and emphasize the necessity of establishing scientifically grounded safety corridors. Overall, ELF-EMF pollution should be considered not only as a measurable environmental parameter but also as a strategic planning concern that directly influences sustainable urban development, public health, and environmental justice.

Keywords

• Empirical Bayesian Kriging
• Electromagnetic field
• High-voltage power line
• Spatial model
• Built environment

Yüksek Gerilim Hatlarından Kaynaklanan Elektromanyetik Kirliliğin Mekânsal Modellemesi için CBS Tabanlı Empirical Bayesian Kriging: Erzurum Vaka Çalışması

Abstract

Kentsel alanlarda yüksek gerilim iletim hatları (High-Voltage Power Lines, HVPL) tarafından üretilen aşırı düşük frekanslı elektromanyetik alanlar (Extremely Low Frequency Electromagnetic Fields, ELF-EMF), kanser, nörolojik bozukluklar ve çocuklarda bilişsel gelişim sorunlarıyla ilişkilendirilmekte ve önemli bir halk sağlığı tehdidi olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu nedenle ELF-EMF dağılımının güvenilir biçimde modellenmesi, kent planlama açısından kritik bir gerekliliktir. Buna karşın, dış mekânlarda ELF-EMF düzeylerinin mekânsal modellemesine yönelik çalışmalar sınırlıdır ve mevcut yöntemler heterojen mekânsal örüntüleri yakalamada yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, kentsel alanlarda ELF-EMF kirliliğinin heterojen özelliklerini ortaya çıkarmak ve yapılı çevre değişkenlerini (bina ayak izleri, arazi yüksekliği ve hat bileşenleri) tahmin sürecine entegre etmek için Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) tabanlı bir mekânsal model geliştirmektir. Erzurum’da yeni gelişme alanlarından geçen bir HVPL boyunca yapılan ölçümler, çalışmada referans alınan Dünya Sağlık Örgütünün (World Health Organization, WHO) ihtiyatlı eşik değeri olan 0,2 µT’ye ulaşmak için hat ekseninden ortalama 140-150 metrelik bir tampon mesafe gerektiğini; iletim direkleri çevresinde ise aynı eşik değerine 60-70 metre mesafede düşüldüğünü göstermiştir. Bu tampon mesafeler, ölçülen manyetik alan şiddetinin yatay uzaklığa bağlı olarak 0,2 µT’nin altına indiği noktalar esas alınarak hesaplanmıştır. Analizler hem doğrusal risk koridorlarını hem de EBK enterpolasyon yüzeyindeki yerel maksimum değerlerin oluşturduğu alansal risk odaklarını ortaya koymuştur. Sonuçlar, mevcut yönetmelikteki 5 metrelik yapı yaklaşma mesafesinin yetersiz olduğunu ortaya koymakta ve bilimsel temelli güvenlik koridorları oluşturulmasının gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Genel olarak, ELF-EMF kirliliği sadece ölçülebilir bir çevresel parametre olarak değil, aynı zamanda sürdürülebilir kentsel gelişim, halk sağlığı ve çevresel adaleti doğrudan etkileyen stratejik bir planlama konusu olarak değerlendirilmelidir.

Keywords

• Empirical Bayesian Kriging
• Elektromanyetik alan
• Yüksek gerilim elektrik hattı
• Mekânsal model
• Yapılı çevre

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