Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 243 - 248, 15.01.2025
https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1574470

Abstract

Long waiting times in polyclinics are a critical factor affecting patient satisfaction and the efficient use of healthcare personnel and resources. This study applied machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict and reduce patient waiting times in a dental clinic in Türkiye. The daily data collected from the clinic included variables such as patient satisfaction, appointment patients, Walk-in patients, number of doctors and nurses, and dental technicians on duty. Six ML algorithms were tested: Decision Trees (DT), Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Kernel Regression (KR), and Neural Networks (NN). Among these, the GPR model achieved the best performance, accurately predicting patient waiting times with an R2 value of 0.936 and RMSE of 0.075. This study highlights the potential of ML methods to enhance operational efficiency in healthcare management.

Ethical Statement

Ethics committee approval was not required for this study because of there was no study on animals or humans.

References

  • Anderson RT, Camacho FT, Balkrishnan R. 2007. Willing to wait? The influence of patient wait time on satisfaction with primary care. BMC Health Serv Res, 7(1): 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-7-31/TABLES/2
  • Arenas-Garcia J, Petersen KB, Camps-Valls G, Hansen LK. 2013. Kernel multivariate analysis framework for supervised subspace learning: A tutorial on linear and kernel multivariate methods. IEEE Signal Proces Mag, 30(4): 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1109/MSP.2013.2250591
  • Atalan A, Keskin A. 2023. Estimation of the utilization rates of the resources of a dental clinic by simulation. Sigma J Eng Nat Sci, 41(2): 423-432. https://doi.org/10.14744/sigma.2023.00045
  • Atalan A, Şahin H. 2024. Forecasting of the dental workforce with machine learning models. Müh Bil Araş Derg, 6(1): 125-132. https://doi.org/10.46387/bjesr.1455345
  • Bahammam FA. 2023. Satisfaction of clinical waiting time in ear, nose & throat departments of the Ministry of Health in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Health Serv Insights, 2023: 16. https://doi.org/10.1177/11786329231183315
  • Bertsimas D, King A. 2016. OR forum—An algorithmic approach to linear regression. Oper Res, 64(1): 2-16. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1436
  • Boudreaux ED, O’Hea EL. 2004. Patient satisfaction in the Emergency Department: a review of the literature and implications for practice. J Emer Medic, 26(1): 13-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEMERMED.2003.04.003
  • Cayirli T, Veral E. 2003. Outpatient scheduling in health care: A review of literature. Prod Oper Manag, 12(4): 519-549. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1937-5956.2003.TB00218.X
  • Channouf N, L’Ecuyer P, Ingolfsson A, Avramidis AN. 2007. The application of forecasting techniques to modeling emergency medical system calls in Calgary, Alberta. Health Care Manag Sci, 10(1): 25-45. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10729-006-9006-3/METRICS
  • Gualtieri JA, Chettri S. 2000. Support Vector Machines for classification of hyperspectral data. International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), July 24928, Honolulu, US, 2: 813-815. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2000.861712
  • Hung M, Xu J, Lauren E, Voss MW, Rosales MN, Su W, Licari FW. 2019. Development of a recommender system for dental care using machine learning. SN Appl Sci, 1(7): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/S42452-019-0795-7/FIGURES/1
  • Keskin A, Ersin İ, Atalan A. 2024. Price estimation of selected grains products based on machine learning for agricultural economic development in Türkiye. J Anim Plant Sci, 34(5): 1290-1301. https://doi.org/10.36899/japs.2024.5.0811
  • Komşuoğlu AF. 2022. Özel diş kliniklerinde hasta memnuniyeti ve diş sağlık hizmet kalitesi. İstat Uyg Bil Derg, 6: 1-11. https://doi.org/10.52693/JSAS.1200905
  • Kononenko, I. 2001. Machine learning for medical diagnosis: history, state of the art and perspective. Artif Intel Medic, 23(1): 89-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0933-3657(01)00077-X
  • Liao Z, Li D, Wang X, Li L, Zou Q. 2016. Cancer diagnosis through isomir expression with machine learning method. Curr Bioinformatics, 11(3): 57-63. https://doi.org/10.2174/1574893611666160609081155
  • Marrel A, Iooss B. 2024. Probabilistic surrogate modeling by Gaussian process: A review on recent insights in estimation and validation. Reliab Eng Syst Safety, 247: 110094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110094
  • Miao J, Niu L. 2016. A survey on feature selection. Proc Comp Sci, 91: 919-926. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PROCS.2016.07.111
  • Mohsin M, Forero R, Ieraci S, Bauman AE, Young L, Santiano N. 2007. A population follow-up study of patients who left an emergency department without being seen by a medical officer. Emer Medic J, 24(3): 175-179. https://doi.org/10.1136/EMJ.2006.038679
  • Montecinos J, Ouhimmou M, Chauhan S. 2018. Waiting‐time estimation in walk‐in clinics. Int Transact Oper Res, 25(1): 51-74. https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.12353
  • Naskath J, Sivakamasundari G, Begum AAS. 2023. A study on different deep learning algorithms used in deep neural nets: MLP SOM and DBN. Wireless Personal Commun, 128(4): 2913-2936. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11277-022-10079-4/FIGURES/7
  • Pitrou I, Lecourt AC, Bailly L, Brousse B, Dauchet L, Ladner J. 2009. Waiting time and assessment of patient satisfaction in a large reference emergency department: A prospective cohort study, France. Eur J Emer Medic, 16(4): 177-182. https://doi.org/10.1097/MEJ.0B013E32831016A6
  • Qu X, Shi J. 2011. Modeling the effect of patient choice on the performance of open access scheduling. Int J Prod Econ, 129(2): 314-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.11.006
  • Reid RO, Ashwood JS, Friedberg MW, Weber ES, Setodji CM, Mehrotra A. 2013. Retail clinic visits and receipt of primary care. J General Internal Medic, 28(4): 504-512. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11606-012-2243-X/TABLES/5
  • Song Y-Y, Lu Y. 2015. Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction. Shanghai Arch Psychiatry, 27(2): 130-135. https://doi.org/10.11919/j.issn.1002-0829.215044
  • Soremekun OA, Takayesu JK, Bohan SJ. 2011. Framework for analyzing wait times and other factors that impact patient satisfaction in the emergency department. J Emer Medic, 41(6): 686-692. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEMERMED.2011.01.018
  • Stiglic G, Kocbek P, Fijacko N, Zitnik M, Verbert K, Cilar L. 2020. Interpretability of machine learning‐based prediction models in healthcare. WIREs Data Mining Knowl Discov, 10(5): e1379. https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1379
  • The MathWorks, Inc. 2024. MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release [2024a], Regression Learner. Massachusetts: The MathWorks, Inc.

Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 243 - 248, 15.01.2025
https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1574470

Abstract

Long waiting times in polyclinics are a critical factor affecting patient satisfaction and the efficient use of healthcare personnel and resources. This study applied machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict and reduce patient waiting times in a dental clinic in Türkiye. The daily data collected from the clinic included variables such as patient satisfaction, appointment patients, Walk-in patients, number of doctors and nurses, and dental technicians on duty. Six ML algorithms were tested: Decision Trees (DT), Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Kernel Regression (KR), and Neural Networks (NN). Among these, the GPR model achieved the best performance, accurately predicting patient waiting times with an R2 value of 0.936 and RMSE of 0.075. This study highlights the potential of ML methods to enhance operational efficiency in healthcare management.

Ethical Statement

Ethics committee approval was not required for this study because of there was no study on animals or humans.

References

  • Anderson RT, Camacho FT, Balkrishnan R. 2007. Willing to wait? The influence of patient wait time on satisfaction with primary care. BMC Health Serv Res, 7(1): 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-7-31/TABLES/2
  • Arenas-Garcia J, Petersen KB, Camps-Valls G, Hansen LK. 2013. Kernel multivariate analysis framework for supervised subspace learning: A tutorial on linear and kernel multivariate methods. IEEE Signal Proces Mag, 30(4): 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1109/MSP.2013.2250591
  • Atalan A, Keskin A. 2023. Estimation of the utilization rates of the resources of a dental clinic by simulation. Sigma J Eng Nat Sci, 41(2): 423-432. https://doi.org/10.14744/sigma.2023.00045
  • Atalan A, Şahin H. 2024. Forecasting of the dental workforce with machine learning models. Müh Bil Araş Derg, 6(1): 125-132. https://doi.org/10.46387/bjesr.1455345
  • Bahammam FA. 2023. Satisfaction of clinical waiting time in ear, nose & throat departments of the Ministry of Health in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Health Serv Insights, 2023: 16. https://doi.org/10.1177/11786329231183315
  • Bertsimas D, King A. 2016. OR forum—An algorithmic approach to linear regression. Oper Res, 64(1): 2-16. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1436
  • Boudreaux ED, O’Hea EL. 2004. Patient satisfaction in the Emergency Department: a review of the literature and implications for practice. J Emer Medic, 26(1): 13-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEMERMED.2003.04.003
  • Cayirli T, Veral E. 2003. Outpatient scheduling in health care: A review of literature. Prod Oper Manag, 12(4): 519-549. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1937-5956.2003.TB00218.X
  • Channouf N, L’Ecuyer P, Ingolfsson A, Avramidis AN. 2007. The application of forecasting techniques to modeling emergency medical system calls in Calgary, Alberta. Health Care Manag Sci, 10(1): 25-45. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10729-006-9006-3/METRICS
  • Gualtieri JA, Chettri S. 2000. Support Vector Machines for classification of hyperspectral data. International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), July 24928, Honolulu, US, 2: 813-815. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2000.861712
  • Hung M, Xu J, Lauren E, Voss MW, Rosales MN, Su W, Licari FW. 2019. Development of a recommender system for dental care using machine learning. SN Appl Sci, 1(7): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/S42452-019-0795-7/FIGURES/1
  • Keskin A, Ersin İ, Atalan A. 2024. Price estimation of selected grains products based on machine learning for agricultural economic development in Türkiye. J Anim Plant Sci, 34(5): 1290-1301. https://doi.org/10.36899/japs.2024.5.0811
  • Komşuoğlu AF. 2022. Özel diş kliniklerinde hasta memnuniyeti ve diş sağlık hizmet kalitesi. İstat Uyg Bil Derg, 6: 1-11. https://doi.org/10.52693/JSAS.1200905
  • Kononenko, I. 2001. Machine learning for medical diagnosis: history, state of the art and perspective. Artif Intel Medic, 23(1): 89-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0933-3657(01)00077-X
  • Liao Z, Li D, Wang X, Li L, Zou Q. 2016. Cancer diagnosis through isomir expression with machine learning method. Curr Bioinformatics, 11(3): 57-63. https://doi.org/10.2174/1574893611666160609081155
  • Marrel A, Iooss B. 2024. Probabilistic surrogate modeling by Gaussian process: A review on recent insights in estimation and validation. Reliab Eng Syst Safety, 247: 110094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110094
  • Miao J, Niu L. 2016. A survey on feature selection. Proc Comp Sci, 91: 919-926. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PROCS.2016.07.111
  • Mohsin M, Forero R, Ieraci S, Bauman AE, Young L, Santiano N. 2007. A population follow-up study of patients who left an emergency department without being seen by a medical officer. Emer Medic J, 24(3): 175-179. https://doi.org/10.1136/EMJ.2006.038679
  • Montecinos J, Ouhimmou M, Chauhan S. 2018. Waiting‐time estimation in walk‐in clinics. Int Transact Oper Res, 25(1): 51-74. https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.12353
  • Naskath J, Sivakamasundari G, Begum AAS. 2023. A study on different deep learning algorithms used in deep neural nets: MLP SOM and DBN. Wireless Personal Commun, 128(4): 2913-2936. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11277-022-10079-4/FIGURES/7
  • Pitrou I, Lecourt AC, Bailly L, Brousse B, Dauchet L, Ladner J. 2009. Waiting time and assessment of patient satisfaction in a large reference emergency department: A prospective cohort study, France. Eur J Emer Medic, 16(4): 177-182. https://doi.org/10.1097/MEJ.0B013E32831016A6
  • Qu X, Shi J. 2011. Modeling the effect of patient choice on the performance of open access scheduling. Int J Prod Econ, 129(2): 314-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.11.006
  • Reid RO, Ashwood JS, Friedberg MW, Weber ES, Setodji CM, Mehrotra A. 2013. Retail clinic visits and receipt of primary care. J General Internal Medic, 28(4): 504-512. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11606-012-2243-X/TABLES/5
  • Song Y-Y, Lu Y. 2015. Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction. Shanghai Arch Psychiatry, 27(2): 130-135. https://doi.org/10.11919/j.issn.1002-0829.215044
  • Soremekun OA, Takayesu JK, Bohan SJ. 2011. Framework for analyzing wait times and other factors that impact patient satisfaction in the emergency department. J Emer Medic, 41(6): 686-692. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEMERMED.2011.01.018
  • Stiglic G, Kocbek P, Fijacko N, Zitnik M, Verbert K, Cilar L. 2020. Interpretability of machine learning‐based prediction models in healthcare. WIREs Data Mining Knowl Discov, 10(5): e1379. https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1379
  • The MathWorks, Inc. 2024. MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release [2024a], Regression Learner. Massachusetts: The MathWorks, Inc.
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Biostatistics, Statistical Analysis, Applied Statistics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Abdulkadir Keskin 0000-0002-4795-1028

Publication Date January 15, 2025
Submission Date October 27, 2024
Acceptance Date December 3, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 8 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Keskin, A. (2025). Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science, 8(1), 243-248. https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1574470
AMA Keskin A. Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye. BSJ Eng. Sci. January 2025;8(1):243-248. doi:10.34248/bsengineering.1574470
Chicago Keskin, Abdulkadir. “Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye”. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science 8, no. 1 (January 2025): 243-48. https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1574470.
EndNote Keskin A (January 1, 2025) Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science 8 1 243–248.
IEEE A. Keskin, “Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye”, BSJ Eng. Sci., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 243–248, 2025, doi: 10.34248/bsengineering.1574470.
ISNAD Keskin, Abdulkadir. “Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye”. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science 8/1 (January 2025), 243-248. https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1574470.
JAMA Keskin A. Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye. BSJ Eng. Sci. 2025;8:243–248.
MLA Keskin, Abdulkadir. “Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye”. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science, vol. 8, no. 1, 2025, pp. 243-8, doi:10.34248/bsengineering.1574470.
Vancouver Keskin A. Predicting and Reducing Patient Waiting Times in Dental Clinics Using Machine Learning: A Case Study from Türkiye. BSJ Eng. Sci. 2025;8(1):243-8.

                                                24890