Homogeneous Uniform Association Model for the Effects of Countries' Democratic Measures on the Covid-19 Pandemic Process Modifier

Abstract

Countries have implemented their own policies during the Covid-19 pandemic process. The aim of this study is to examine the risk of democratic decline as a result of the preventive policies implemented by countries after increasing cases and death rates as well as the rate of virus spread and case fatality rates in the countries. This paper is the first to analyze countries’ virus spread and case fatality rates together with their risk values of democratic decline. Data sets from a total of 148 countries can be accessible from publicly available sources. The variables related to the pandemic process management of the selected countries are taken as the government Covid-19 response stringency index and risk of democratic decline. Three-way contingency tables are generated with coronavirus effective reproduction number and the death rate from Covid-19 positive variables. Homogeneous Uniform Association model, which is a special case of the log-linear model with ordinal variables, is used for the contingency tables arranged from the raw data. As a result of this study, making preventive policies more likely to be tightened causes to reduce coronavirus spread rate. In this case, it will make tightening of preventive policies more likely in the countries and the likelihood of loosening of tight policies in the countries will increase as the death rate falls below the average.

Keywords

• Covid-19 Pandemic
• Democratic Decline Risk Level
• Homogeneous Uniform Association Model
• Log-Linear Models
• Preventive Policies

Covid-19 Pandemi Sürecinde Ülkelerin Demokratik Önlemlerinin Etkilerinin Homojen Tekdüze İlişki Modeli ile İncelenmesi

Abstract

Covid-19 pandemi sürecinde ülkeler kendilerine özgü politikalar uygulamışlardır. Artan vakaların ve ölüm oranlarının ardından ülkelerin uyguladıkları pandemi önleyici politikalar sonucunda ortaya çıkan demokratik gerileme risk düzeyinin yanı sıra, ülkelerdeki virüs yayılım hızını ve vaka ölüm oranlarını incelemek bu çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, ülkelerin pandemi demokratik risk düzeyleri hesaplanarak, virüs yayılım hızı ve vaka ölüm oranları birlikte ilk defa incelenmiştir. Veriler, toplam 148 ülkenin kamuya açık kaynaklarından elde edilmiştir. Ülkelerin pandemi önleyici politikalarına ve demokratik gerileme risk düzeylerine göre virüs yayılma hızının ve Covid-19 pozitiften ölüm oranlarının incelenmesi amacıyla düzenlenen iki tane üç boyutlu olumsallık tablosu logaritmik doğrusal modellerin özel bir durumu olan Homojen Tekdüze İlişki modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Homojen Tekdüze İlişki modelinde virüs yayılma hızı ve vaka ölüm oranları dikkate alınarak, ülkelerin pandemi önleyici politikaları ve demokratik gerileme risk düzeyleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Pandemi önleyici politika sıkılaştıkça, Covid-19 koronavirüsünün yayılım hızı azalmaktadır. Bu durum önleyici politikaların sıkılaşmasını daha olası kılacak ve ölüm oranının ortalama altına düşmesiyle birlikte ülkelerdeki sıkı politikaların gevşeme olasılığı artacaktır.

Keywords

• Covid-19 Pandemisi
• Demokratik Gerileme Risk Düzeyi
• Homojen Tekdüze İlişki Modeli
• Log-Linear Modeller
• Önleyici Politikalar

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