Asymmetric Effect Of Oil Prices On Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 266 - 279, 30.06.2019

Muhammed Benli , Halil Altıntaş , Muhittin Kaplan

https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.480869

Cited By: 2

Abstract

This
study investigates the impact of changes in oil prices on the real economic
activity of Turkey. For this purpose, we employ Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed
Lags (NARDL) model which enables us to test the short-run and long-run
asymmetries concurrently and allows us to measure the corresponding reaction of
economic growth to changes in its regressors. The empirical results confirm the
asymmetric effect of oil price changes on economic growth. Particularly, rises
in oil prices have a negative influence on economic growth in the long run and
this impact has a larger magnitude relative to declines in oil prices which are
found to be statistically insignificant. That is to say, the output growth does
not respond to the reductions in oil
prices but rises in oil prices. 

Keywords

oil price, asymmetry, economic growth

Petrol Fiyatlarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin Türkiye'nin reel ekonomik
aktivitesi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla, kısa ve uzun
dönemli asimetrilerin eşzamanlı olarak test edilmesine imkan veren ve ekonomik
büyümenin açıklayıcı değişkenlerdeki değişimlere reaksiyonunun ölçülmesine olanak
sağlayan Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) modeli
kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişikliklerin ekonomik büyüme
üzerindeki asimetrik etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Özellikle, petrol fiyatlarındaki
artışların uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif olmakla
birlikte bu etkinin şiddeti petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin etkisine oranla
daha büyüktür ve ayrıca modelde petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin etkisi
istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Bir başka deyişle, iktisadi büyüme petrol fiyatlarındaki
düşüşlere tepki göstermezken, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlara tepki
vermektedir.

Keywords

Petrol fiyatları, asimetri, iktisadi büyüme

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