Year 2020, Volume 3 , Issue 2, Pages 27 - 30 2020-04-01

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020

Hasan ONDER [1]


The trend of COVID-19 and its reproductive number should be well examined because the transmission potential of novel coronavirus can reach high values. In this study the early stage of COVID-19 in Turkey between March 16 and March 28, 2020 was examined. Generalized Logistic growth model, Richards Model, and sub-exponential growth models were compared to estimate the trend of disease. Results showed that the reproductive number was between 2.00 and 2.45 at interested period. The best fitting model has been determines as sub-exponential growth model with scaling of growth parameter of 0.91.
COVID-19, Reproductive number, Growth curve, Turkey
  • Bianconi A, Marcelli A, Campi G, Perali A. 2020. Ostwald growth rate in controlled Covid-19 epidemic spreading as in arrested growth in quantum complex matter. arXiv:2003.08868. Jung S, Akhmetzhanov AR, Hayashi K, Linton NM, Yang Y, Yuan B, Kobayashi T, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. 2020. Real-time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference using exported cases. J Clin Med, 9: 523, DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020523. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S, James L, Gopalakrishna G, Chew SK, Tan CC, Samore MH, et al. 2003. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science, 300: 1966–1970. Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J. 2020. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. J Travel Med, 2020: 1–4, DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa02. Richards F. 1959. A flexible growth function for empirical use. J Exp Bot, 10: 290–301. Roosa K, Luo R, Chowell G. 2019. Comparative assessment of parameter estimation methods in the presence of overdispersion: A simulation study. Math Biosci Eng, 16: 4299–4313. Roosa K, Lee Y, Luo R, Kirpich A, Rothenberg R, Hyman JM, Yan P, Chowell G. 2020a. Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020. Infect Disease Modell, 5: 256e263. DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.002. Roosa K, Lee Y, Luo R, Kirpich A, Rothenberg R, Hyman JM, Yan P, Chowell G. 2020b. Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020. J Clin Med, 9: 596, DOI:10.3390/jcm9020596. Tian S, Hu N, Lou J, Chen K, Kang X, Xiang Z, Chen H, Wang D, Liu N, Liu D, Chen G, Zhang Y, Li D, Li J, Lian H, Niu S, Zhang L, Zhang J. 2020. Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing. J Infect, 80: 401–406, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.018. Tunç T, Enöz S. 2018. Analysis of job satisfaction levels of police with structural eqution modeling: the case of Samsun. BSJ Eng Sci, 1(4): 134-139. Viboud C, Simonsen L, Chowell G. 2016. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics, 15: 27–37. Wang X-S, Wu J, Yang Y. 2012. Richards model revisited: Validation by and application to infection dynamics. J Theor Biol, 313: 12–19. Wu Z, McGoogan JM. 2020. Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China. JAMA, DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.2648.
Primary Language en
Subjects Medicine
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0002-8404-8700
Author: Hasan ONDER (Primary Author)
Institution: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : April 1, 2020

Bibtex @research article { bshealthscience710989, journal = {Black Sea Journal of Health Science}, issn = {}, eissn = {2619-9041}, address = {bsjhealthsci@blackseapublishers.com}, publisher = {Cem TIRINK}, year = {2020}, volume = {3}, pages = {27 - 30}, doi = {}, title = {Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020}, key = {cite}, author = {ONDER, Hasan} }
APA ONDER, H . (2020). Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020. Black Sea Journal of Health Science , 3 (2) , 27-30 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bshealthscience/issue/51721/710989
MLA ONDER, H . "Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020". Black Sea Journal of Health Science 3 (2020 ): 27-30 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bshealthscience/issue/51721/710989>
Chicago ONDER, H . "Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020". Black Sea Journal of Health Science 3 (2020 ): 27-30
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020 AU - Hasan ONDER Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - DO - T2 - Black Sea Journal of Health Science JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 27 EP - 30 VL - 3 IS - 2 SN - -2619-9041 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Black Sea Journal of Health Science Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020 %A Hasan ONDER %T Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020 %D 2020 %J Black Sea Journal of Health Science %P -2619-9041 %V 3 %N 2 %R %U
ISNAD ONDER, Hasan . "Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020". Black Sea Journal of Health Science 3 / 2 (April 2020): 27-30 .
AMA ONDER H . Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020. BSJ Health Sci.. 2020; 3(2): 27-30.
Vancouver ONDER H . Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020. Black Sea Journal of Health Science. 2020; 3(2): 30-27.