YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİNİN İŞ ÇEVRİM ÖZELLİKLERİ: KARŞILAŞTIRILMALI BİR ANALİZ

Abstract

Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri iş çevrimlerinin istatistiki özelliklerini belirlemek, modellerin tahmininde kritik öneme sahiptir. İlgili literatürde iş çevrimlerinin özelliklerini hesaplamak için yapılan araştırmalarda küçük örneklemler kullanıldığı için elde edilen sonuçlar seçilen ülkelere bağlı olmaktadır. Bu problemden kurtulmak için oluşturduğumuz örneklemde çok sayıda ülkeye yer verilmiştir. Bir başka sorun da seçilen ülkelerin heterojen bir yapı sergilemesidir. Bu heterojendik probleminden sakınmak için, çalışmamızda, birbirine yakın özelliklere sahip yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinin seçildiği bir örneklem oluşturulmuştur. Gelişmekte olan ülke örnekleminde 16 ülkeye yer verilmiştir. Bu ekonomilerin iktisadi dalgalanmalarının istatistiki özelliklerini karşılaştırabilmek için gelişmiş ülkelerden oluşan bir başka örneklem daha oluşturulmuştur. Gelişmiş ülke örnekleminde de 17 ülke seçilmiştir. Her iki ülke grubunun iş çevrimlerinin istatistiki özellikleri, klasik ve büyüme çevrimleri incelenerek, tespit edilmiştir. Bu amaçla ülkelerin ortalama daralma/genişleme süreleri, daralma/genişleme dönemlerindeki genlik ve kümülatif değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca ülkelerin oynaklık, göreli oynaklık, değişkenlerin çıktıyla olan korelasyon değerleri ve GSYİH, tüketici fiyatları endeksi ve reel döviz kurunun otokorelasyon değerleri de hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar ülke gruplarının kendi içerisinde ve ülke grupları arasında karşılaştırılmıştır.

Keywords

• Nominal İş çevrimleri
• Reel İş Çevrimleri
• Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri

BUSINESS CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS OF EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

Identifying the statistical properties of business cycles in emerging markets is crucial for developing and estimating the theoretical models. In the related literature, studies determined the properties of business cycles have been analayzed with small samples. Therefore, the results are subjective and depend on the selected country samples. In this paper, a large number of emerging country are selected. Furthermore, the selected countries are heterogeneous. For this reason, a sample of countries with similar characteristics is constructed to avoid heterogeneity problems. The sample includes 16 emerging markets. In addition to emerging countries sample, another sample of developed countries has been constructed in order to compare the statistical properties of emerging markets. There are 17 developed countries are selected to construct the developed country sample. The statistical properties of the business cycles of both groups of countries are determined by analyzing the business cycles. For this purpose, average contraction/expansion periods, amplitude and cumulative values during contraction/expansion periods. In addition to this properties, volatility, relative volatility, and correlation of selected variables with GDP are calculated. Moreover, autocorrelation values of GDP, consumer price index, and reel exchange rate are also calculated. The results are compared within and between country groups.

Keywords

• Nominal Business Cycles
• Reel Business Cycles
• Emerging Markets

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