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İklim Değişikliğinin Türkiye’nin Güney Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki Yağış Dinamikleri Üzerindeki Etkileri

Year 2024, Volume: 38 Issue: 1, 123 - 141, 14.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.20479/bursauludagziraat.1442146

Abstract

Yağış dağılımının dinamiklerini anlamak, özellikle iklim değişikliğinin etkilerine duyarlı bölgelerde etkili su yönetimi stratejileri için hayati öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışma, referans dönem (1971-2000) yıllık ve sezonluk ortalamalarını gelecek dönem (2061-2090) ortalamaları ile karşılaştırarak Türkiye'nin Güney Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki yağışlarda öngörülen değişiklikleri incelemektedir. Farklı iklim modelleri (GFDL, HADGEM ve MPI) ve Temsili Konsantrasyon Senaryoları (RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5) kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen analizler, yağış eğilimleri belirlemek için Mann-Kendall testi ve Sen'in eğim yöntemlerini içermektedir. Temel bulgular, Çanakkale, Balıkesir, Bursa, Bilecik ve Yalova illerinde su kaynakları yönetimi, tarım ve ekosistem dayanıklılığına ilişkin çıkarımlarla birlikte, farklı modeller ve senaryolar arasında yağış tahminlerinde önemli farklılıklar olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Referans dönemine göre yıllık yağış değişim oranlarına göre Balıkesir ili, HADGEM ve MPI model simülasyonlarında sırasıyla %8.81 ve %7.09 ortalamalarıyla iklim değişikliğine karşı en dayanıklı il olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Mevsimsel değişimler dikkate alındığında; MPI RCP8.5 senaryosuna göre Bilecik ilinde yağışlarda önemli bir düşüş yaşanarak, değişimin referans döneme göre -%53.78'e kadar ulaşması beklenmektedir. Mann-Kendall testi ile belirlenen yıllık yağış değerlerinde dönem içi değişimlerde en kuvvetli düşüş eğilimi MPI RCP8.5 senaryo koşullarında Z=-2.03 Bilecik ilinde ile tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan, sezonluk değişimler açısından, GFDL RCP4.5 koşullarında en kuvvetli düşüş trendini Bursa ili göstermiştir (Z=-2.89). Çalışma, Güney Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki iklim değişkenliği ve bu değişim ortamında sürdürülebilir su kaynakları yönetimi için mekânsal olarak değişen yağış düzenlerinin ve atmosfer olaylarında potansiyel değişimlerin dikkate alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır. Bu bulgular, gelecekteki iklim senaryolarının ortaya çıkardığı zorlukların üstesinden gelmek için adaptasyon stratejileri geliştirmede rol olan karar vericiler ve paydaşlar için önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

References

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Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Dynamics in the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey

Year 2024, Volume: 38 Issue: 1, 123 - 141, 14.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.20479/bursauludagziraat.1442146

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of precipitation patterns is crucial for effective water management strategies, especially in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the projected changes in annual and seasonal precipitation across the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey by comparing the averages of the reference period (1971-2000) with those of the future period (2061-2090). Employing multiple climate models (GFDL, HADGEM, and MPI) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the analysis includes Mann-Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope method to determine trends in precipitation patterns. Key findings reveal significant variability in precipitation projections among different models and scenarios, with implications for water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem resilience in provinces such as Çanakkale, Balıkesir, Bursa, Bilecik, and Yalova. According to the annual rainfall change rates relative to the reference period, Balıkesir province stands out as the most resilient province against climate change with average rates of 8.81% and 7.09% under the HADGEM and MPI model simulations, respectively. Regarding seasonal variations, Bilecik province is expected to experience a significant decrease in rainfall, reaching up to -53.78% under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of within-period changes in annual rainfall values, the strongest declining trend was identified with Z=-2.03 in Bilecik province under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario conditions by the Mann-Kendall test. On the other hand, for seasonal variations, Bursa province demonstrates the most robust decreasing trend under the GFDL RCP4.5 conditions (Z=-2.89). The study emphasizes the importance of considering spatially varying precipitation patterns and potential shifts in atmospheric circulation for sustainable water resource management amidst climate variability and change in the Southern Marmara region. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in developing adaptive strategies to address the challenges posed by future climate scenarios.

Ethical Statement

This study does not require ethics committee approval. The article has been prepared in accordance with research and publication ethics.

Thanks

The authors are gratefully acknowledged to the Turkish State Meteorological Service for sharing meteorological data used for this study.

References

  • Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Sapiano, M., Wang, J. J. and Huffman, G. J. 2017. Global precipitation: Means, variations and trends during the satellite era (1979–2014). Surveys in Geophysics, 38: 679-699.
  • Agarwal, A., Babel, M. S. and Maskey, S. 2014. Analysis of future precipitation in the Koshi river basin, Nepal. Journal of Hydrology, 513(1): 422-434.
  • Akçakaya, A., Sümer, U. M., Demircan, M., Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Gürkan, H., Yazıcı, B., Kocatürk, A., Şensoy, S., Bölük, E., Arabacı, H., Açar, Y., Ekici, M., Yağan, S. ve Çukurçayır, F. 2015. Yeni Senaryolarla Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği. Ankara: Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü Yayını. Rapor No.: TR2015-CC.
  • Bağçaci, S. Ç., Yucel, I., Duzenli, E. and Yilmaz, M. T. 2021. Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 256: 105576.
  • Bağdatlı, M. C. and Can, E. 2019. Analysis of Precipitation Datas by Mann Kendall and Sperman's Rho Rank Correlation Statistical Approaches in Nevsehir Province of Turkey. Recent Research in Science and Technology Journal, 4(11): 24-31.
  • Baltacı, H., Göktürk, O. M., Kındap, T., Ünal, A. and Karaca, M. 2015. Atmospheric circulation types in Marmara Region (NW Turkey) and their influence on precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 35(8): 1810-1820.
  • Berhail, S. and Katipoğlu, O. M. 2023. Spatiotemporal detection of abrupt change in trends of rainfall and dry and wet periods at different time scales: The case of the Medjerda basin in northeast Algeria. Acta Geophysica, 1-20.
  • Carvalho, L. M. 2020. Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(2): e627.
  • Çiçek, İ. and Duman, N. 2015. Seasonal and annual precipitation trends in Turkey. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 10(2): 77-84.
  • Danandeh Mehr, A. and Kahya, E. 2017. Climate change impacts on catchment-scale extreme rainfall variability: case study of Rize Province, Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 22(3): 05016037.
  • Demir, V. and Kisi, O. 2016. Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method (Şen trend) for monthly total precipitation (Middle Black Sea Region, Turkey). 3rd International Balkans Conference on Challenges of Civil Engineering, 19-21 May 2016, Epoka University, Tirana, Albania, 344.
  • Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H. and Coşkun, M. 2017. Climate change projections for Turkey: three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 1(1): 22-43.
  • Doulabian, S., Golian, S., Toosi, A. S. and Murphy, C. 2021. Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(1): 166-184.
  • Ekwueme, B. N. and Agunwamba, J. C. 2021. Trend analysis and variability of air temperature and rainfall in regional river basins. Civil Engineering Journal, 7(5): 816-826.
  • Fan, G., Sarabandi, A. and Yaghoobzadeh, M. 2021. Evaluating the climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration in eastern Iran using CMPI5. Water Supply, 21(8): 4316-4327.
  • Gao, C., Booij, M. J. and Xu, Y. P. 2020. Impacts of climate change on characteristics of daily‐scale rainfall events based on nine selected GCMs under four CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Qu River basin, east China. International journal of climatology, 40(2): 887-907.
  • Gemmer, M., Becker, S. and Jiang, T. 2004. Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002. Theoretical and applied climatology, 77: 39-45.
  • Gorguner, M., Kavvas, M. L. and Ishida, K. 2019. Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections. Science of the Total Environment, 648: 481-499.
  • Guo, B., Zhang, J., Meng, X., Xu, T. and Song, Y. 2020. Long-term spatio-temporal precipitation variations in China with precipitation surface interpolated by ANUSPLIN. Scientific reports, 10(1): 81.
  • Gürkan, H., Ekici, M., Doğan, O.H., Çalik, Y., Eskioğlu, O., Yağan, S., Bulut, H. and Özmutlu, E.M. 2024. Evaluation of temporal trends of growing degree days index formajor crops in Türkiye. Agronomy Journal, 1-12
  • Harley, C. D., Randall Hughes, A., Hultgren, K. M., Miner, B. G., Sorte, C. J., Thornber, C. S., ... and Williams, S. L. 2006. The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems. Ecology letters, 9(2): 228-241.
  • Javaherian, M., Ebrahimi, H. and Aminnejad, B. 2021. Prediction of changes in climatic parameters using CanESM2 model based on Rcp scenarios (case study): Lar dam basin. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(1): 445-454.
  • Kendall, M. G. 1948. Rank correlation methods. Griffin
  • Kendall, K. 1975. Thin-film peeling-the elastic term. Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics, 8(13): 1449.
  • Khoirunisa, R. 2022. Forecasted Climate Analysis from 2000 to 2100 Using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Model Scenario as A Hazard Early-Warning System in Prague City, Czech Republic. Smart City, 2(1): 4.
  • Koç, T. 2001. Kuzeybatı Anadolu'da iklim ve ortam: sinoptik, istatistik ve uygulama boyutlarıyla. Cantay Kitabevi, İstanbul
  • Koldemir, B. 2016. Marmara Bölgesi Liman Yeri Seçiminde Bölge Ekonomisi, Kıyı Jeolojisi ve Jeomorfolojisinin Önemi: Silivri Alanı. Uygulamalı Yerbilimleri Dergisi, 7(1): 32-45.
  • Kundu, A., Dwivedi, S. and Chandra, V. 2014. Precipitation trend analysis over eastern region of India using CMIP5 based climatic models. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 40: 1437-1442.
  • McLaughlin, D. and Kinzelbach, W. 2015. Food security and sustainable resource management. Water Resources Research, 51(7): 4966-4985.
  • New, M., Todd, M., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. 2001. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 21(15): 1889-1922.
  • Nigussie, T. A. and Altunkaynak, A. 2019. Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135: 1501-1515.
  • Nuri Balov, M. and Altunkaynak, A. 2019. Trend analyses of extreme precipitation indices based on downscaled outputs of global circulation models in Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 43: 821-834.
  • Sariş, F., Hannah, D. M. and Eastwood, W. J. 2010. Spatial variability of precipitation regimes over Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 55(2): 234-249.
  • Seddiqe, K. H., Sediqi, R., Yildiz, O., Akturk, G., Kostecki, J. and Gortych, M. 2023. Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Ayazma River Basin in the Marmara Region of Turkey. Water, 15(4): 763.
  • Sen, P. K. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American statistical association, 63(324): 1379-1389.
  • Serkendiz, H., Tatli, H., Özcan, H., Çetin, M. and Sungur, A. 2023. Multidimensional assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability based on socioeconomic and biophysical indicators. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 98: 104121.
  • Sevim, D., Varol, N. ve Köseoğlu, O. 2022. Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Zeytin Yetiştiriciliği ve Zeytinyağı Üzerine Etkileri. Bursa Uludag Üniv. Ziraat Fak. Derg., 36(2): 415-432.
  • Sharma, A., Sharma, D. and Panda, S. K. 2022. Assessment of spatiotemporal trend of precipitation indices and meteorological drought characteristics in the Mahi River basin, India. Journal of Hydrology, 605: 127314.
  • Sirdaş, S., Diriker, A. B. and Kumar, V. 2016. Heavy precipitation events in Marmara Region and connections with the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation patterns. Environment and Natural Resources Research, 6(1): 115-131.
  • Sohoulande Djebou, D. C. and Singh, V. P. 2016. Impact of climate change on precipitation patterns: A comparative approach. International Journal of Climatology, 36(10): 3588-3606.
  • Solomon, S. 2007. Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC, Cambridge.
  • Subramanian, A., Nagarajan, A. M., Vinod, S., Chakraborty, S., Sivagami, K., Theodore, T., ... and Mangesh, V. L. 2023. Long-term impacts of climate change on coastal and transitional eco-systems in India: an overview of its current status, future projections, solutions, and policies. RSC advances, 13(18): 12204-12228.
  • Tebaldi, C. and Knutti, R. 2007. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical transactions of the royal society A: mathematical, physical and engineering sciences, 365(1857): 2053-2075.
  • Toros, H., Mokari, M. and Abbasnia, M. 2019. Regional variability of temperature extremes in the maritime climate of Turkey: A case study to develop agricultural adaptation strategies under climate change. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5: 857-865.
  • Trenberth, K. E. 2011. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate research, 47(1-2): 123-138.
  • TSMS. 2024. Turkish State Meteorological Service, climate data of long-term period. URL: https://mgm.gov.tr (access date: January 5, 2025)
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There are 55 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Biosystem
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ali Kaan Yetik 0000-0003-1372-8407

Burak Nazmi Candoğan 0000-0001-9898-5685

Early Pub Date June 11, 2024
Publication Date June 14, 2024
Submission Date February 24, 2024
Acceptance Date April 5, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 38 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Yetik, A. K., & Candoğan, B. N. (2024). Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Dynamics in the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 38(1), 123-141. https://doi.org/10.20479/bursauludagziraat.1442146

TR Dizin kriterleri gereği dergimize gönderilecek olan makalelerin mutlaka aşağıda belirtilen hususlara uyması gerekmektedir.

Tüm bilim dallarında yapılan, ve etik kurul kararı gerektiren klinik ve deneysel insan ve hayvanlar üzerindeki çalışmalar için ayrı ayrı etik kurul onayı alınmış olmalı, bu onay makalede belirtilmeli ve belgelendirilmelidir.
Makalelerde Araştırma ve Yayın Etiğine uyulduğuna dair ifadeye yer verilmelidir.
Etik kurul izni gerektiren çalışmalarda, izinle ilgili bilgiler (kurul adı, tarih ve sayı no) yöntem bölümünde ve ayrıca makale ilk/son sayfasında yer verilmelidir.
Kullanılan fikir ve sanat eserleri için telif hakları düzenlemelerine riayet edilmesi gerekmektedir.
Makale sonunda; Araştırmacıların Katkı Oranı beyanı, varsa Destek ve Teşekkür Beyanı, Çatışma Beyanı verilmesi.
Etik Kurul izni gerektiren araştırmalar aşağıdaki gibidir.
- Anket, mülakat, odak grup çalışması, gözlem, deney, görüşme teknikleri kullanılarak katılımcılardan veri toplanmasını gerektiren nitel ya da nicel yaklaşımlarla yürütülen her türlü araştırmalar
- İnsan ve hayvanların (materyal/veriler dahil) deneysel ya da diğer bilimsel amaçlarla kullanılması,
- İnsanlar üzerinde yapılan klinik araştırmalar,
- Hayvanlar üzerinde yapılan araştırmalar,
- Kişisel verilerin korunması kanunu gereğince retrospektif çalışmalar,
Ayrıca;
- Olgu sunumlarında “Aydınlatılmış onam formu”nun alındığının belirtilmesi,
- Başkalarına ait ölçek, anket, fotoğrafların kullanımı için sahiplerinden izin alınması ve belirtilmesi,
- Kullanılan fikir ve sanat eserleri için telif hakları düzenlemelerine uyulduğunun belirtilmesi.



Makale başvurusunda;

(1) Tam metin makale, Dergi yazım kurallarına uygun olmalı, Makalenin ilk sayfasında ve teşekkür bilgi notu kısmında Araştırma ve Yayın Etiğine uyulduğuna ve Etik kurul izni gerektirmediğine dair ifadeye yer verilmelidir. Etik kurul izni gerektiren çalışmalarda, izinle ilgili bilgiler (kurul adı, tarih ve sayı no) yöntem bölümünde ve ayrıca makale ilk/son sayfasında yer verilmeli ve sisteme belgenin yüklenmesi gerekmektedir. (Dergiye gönderilen makalelerde; konu ile ilgili olarak derginin daha önceki sayılarında yayımlanan en az bir yayına atıf yapılması önem arz etmektedir. Dergiye yapılan atıflarda “Bursa Uludag Üniv. Ziraat Fak. Derg.” kısaltması kullanılmalıdır.)

(2) Tam metin makalenin taratıldığını gösteren benzerlik raporu (Ithenticate, intihal.net) (% 20’nin altında olmalıdır),

(3) İmzalanmış ve taratılmış başvuru formu, Dergi web sayfasında yer alan başvuru formunun başvuran tarafından İmzalanıp, taratılarak yüklenmesi , (Ön yazı yerine)

(4) Tüm yazarlar tarafından imzalanmış telif hakkı devir formunun taranmış kopyası,

(5) Araştırmacıların Katkı Oranı beyanı, Çıkar Çatışması beyanı verilmesi Makale sonunda; Araştırmacıların Katkı Oranı beyanı, varsa Destek ve Teşekkür Beyanı, Çatışma Beyanı verilmesi ve sisteme belgenin (Tüm yazarlar tarafından imzalanmış bir yazı) yüklenmesi gerekmektedir.

Belgelerin elektronik formatta DergiPark sistemine https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/login adresinden kayıt olunarak başvuru sırasında yüklenmesi mümkündür. 


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