Year 2020, Volume 3 , Issue 2, Pages 170 - 184 2020-12-31

Türk Elektrik Piyasalarında YSA Yaklaşımıyla Elektrik Yükü Tahmini
Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets

Fazıl GÖKGÖZ [1] , Fahrettin FİLİZ [2]


Elektrik yük tahmini yapabilmek, elektrik hizmetleri, enerji santralleri ve düzenleyiciler için gereklidir. Enerji politikalarını için büyük öneme sahip olan elektrik yükü tahminlerinin sağlıklı ve güvenilir sonuçlar üretmesi esastır. Yapay sinir ağları (YSA) karmaşık ve doğrusal olmayan ilişkileri öğrenebilir. Bu makale, elektrik yükü tahmini için 400 farklı YSA modelini tanımlamaktadır. Model performansları Ortalama Mutlak Yüzde Hata (MAPE) ve Diebold-Mariano (DM) testi ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu çalışma için kullanılan elektrik yükü verileri 2014 ile 2016 yılları arasında değişmektedir. Farklı modeller için YSA'nın tahmin kabiliyetleri tartışılmıştır. Log-sigmoid aktarım işlevine sahip Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), en iyi performanslı YSA modelini eğitir.

Forecasting electricity load has become the essential task for electric utilities, power plants and regulators. It is essential that electricity load forecasts, which are a vital necessity of energy policies, produce healthy and reliable results. Artificial neural networks (ANN) can learn complex and nonlinear relationships. This article introduces 400 different ANN models for electricity load forecasting. Model performances have compared with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. The electricity load data used for this study range from 2014 to 2016. The variation in forecasting ability of ANN for different models has also discussed. Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) with log-sigmoid transfer function trains the best performance ANN model.

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Primary Language en
Subjects Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
Journal Section Peer- Reviewed Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0002-9228-7699
Author: Fazıl GÖKGÖZ (Primary Author)
Institution: Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi İşletme Bölümü Sayısal Yöntemler Anabilim Dalı
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0001-5513-9665
Author: Fahrettin FİLİZ
Institution: ANKARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : December 31, 2020

Bibtex @research article { by834285, journal = {Bilgi Yönetimi}, issn = {}, eissn = {2636-8544}, address = {Ankara Üniversitesi Rektörlüğü Bilgi Yönetim Sistemleri Belgelendirme Merkezi (BİLBEM) Gölbaşı 50. Yıl Yerleşkesi BEYAS Binası 06830 Gölbaşı/ANKARA}, publisher = {Ankara University}, year = {2020}, volume = {3}, pages = {170 - 184}, doi = {10.33721/by.834285}, title = {Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets}, key = {cite}, author = {Gökgöz, Fazıl and Fi̇li̇z, Fahrettin} }
APA Gökgöz, F , Fi̇li̇z, F . (2020). Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets . Bilgi Yönetimi , 3 (2) , 170-184 . DOI: 10.33721/by.834285
MLA Gökgöz, F , Fi̇li̇z, F . "Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets" . Bilgi Yönetimi 3 (2020 ): 170-184 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/by/issue/58545/834285>
Chicago Gökgöz, F , Fi̇li̇z, F . "Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets". Bilgi Yönetimi 3 (2020 ): 170-184
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets AU - Fazıl Gökgöz , Fahrettin Fi̇li̇z Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.33721/by.834285 DO - 10.33721/by.834285 T2 - Bilgi Yönetimi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 170 EP - 184 VL - 3 IS - 2 SN - -2636-8544 M3 - doi: 10.33721/by.834285 UR - https://doi.org/10.33721/by.834285 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Bilgi Yönetimi Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets %A Fazıl Gökgöz , Fahrettin Fi̇li̇z %T Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets %D 2020 %J Bilgi Yönetimi %P -2636-8544 %V 3 %N 2 %R doi: 10.33721/by.834285 %U 10.33721/by.834285
ISNAD Gökgöz, Fazıl , Fi̇li̇z, Fahrettin . "Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets". Bilgi Yönetimi 3 / 2 (December 2020): 170-184 . https://doi.org/10.33721/by.834285
AMA Gökgöz F , Fi̇li̇z F . Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets. BY. 2020; 3(2): 170-184.
Vancouver Gökgöz F , Fi̇li̇z F . Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets. Bilgi Yönetimi. 2020; 3(2): 170-184.
IEEE F. Gökgöz and F. Fi̇li̇z , "Electricity Load Forecasting via ANN Approach in Turkish Electricity Markets", Bilgi Yönetimi, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 170-184, Dec. 2021, doi:10.33721/by.834285