Yaşlanmaya Hazırlanmak: OECD Ülkelerinde Sağlık Sistemi Kapasitesi ve İş Gücü Uyumu

Abstract

Nüfusun yaşlanması, OECD ülkelerinde sağlık iş gücü, hizmet kapasitesi ve sağlık hizmet sunumu açısından uzun vadeli planlama gerektiren önemli bir yapısal dönüşüm alanıdır. Bu çalışma, sağlık sistemlerinin demografik yaşlanmaya nasıl hazırlandığını sağlık iş gücü kapasitesi, hastane altyapısı ve sağlık hizmet kullanımı göstergeleri üzerinden incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada, 2015–2023 dönemini kapsayan 26 OECD ülkesine ait panel veri seti kullanılmıştır. Veriler OECD ve Dünya Bankası veri tabanlarından elde edilmiştir. Nüfus yaşlanması, 65 yaş ve üzeri nüfusun toplam nüfus içindeki payı ile ölçülmüş; sağlık sistemi hazırlığı ise hekim yoğunluğu, hastane yatak kapasitesi ve doktor başvuru sayısı göstergeleri ile değerlendirilmiştir. Kişi başına gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla ve yaşam beklentisi kontrol değişkenleri olarak analize dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmada tanımlayıcı istatistikler, Pearson korelasyon analizi, havuzlanmış OLS regresyon ile sabit ve rassal etkiler modelleri kullanılmıştır. Hausman testi sonuçları sabit etkiler modelinin tercih edilmesi gerektiğini göstermiş, heteroskedastisite nedeniyle küme-robust standart hatalar kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, nüfus yaşlanmasının hekim yoğunluğu ile pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, nüfus yaşlanması ile hastane yatak kapasitesi ve doktor başvuru sayısı arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Sonuçlar, OECD sağlık sistemlerinin yaşlanmaya öncelikle sağlık iş gücü uyumu yoluyla yanıt verdiğini göstermekte ve stratejik sağlık iş gücü planlamasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Nüfus yaşlanması
• sağlık iş gücü
• sağlık sistemi hazırlığı
• OECD ülkeleri
• hekim yoğunluğu
• sağlık hizmet kullanımı

Preparing for Ageing: Healthcare System Capacity and Workforce Adaptation in OECD Countries

Abstract

Population ageing has become a major structural challenge for healthcare systems in OECD countries, requiring long-term planning in healthcare workforce, service capacity, and healthcare delivery. This study examines how healthcare systems prepare for demographic ageing by focusing on healthcare workforce capacity, hospital infrastructure, and healthcare utilization. The study uses a panel dataset covering 26 OECD countries over the period 2015–2023. Data were obtained from the OECD and World Bank databases. Population ageing was measured by the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, while healthcare system preparedness was assessed using physician density, hospital bed capacity, and doctor consultations. GDP per capita and life expectancy were included as control variables. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, pooled OLS regression, and fixed-effects and random-effects models were employed. Hausman test results supported the use of fixed-effects models, and cluster-robust standard errors were applied to address heteroskedasticity. The findings indicate that population ageing is positively and significantly associated with physician density. In contrast, no statistically significant relationship was found between population ageing and hospital bed capacity or doctor consultations. Overall, the results suggest that OECD healthcare systems respond to population ageing primarily through healthcare workforce adaptation, highlighting the importance of strategic healthcare workforce planning.

Keywords

• Population ageing
• healthcare workforce
• health system preparedness
• OECD countries
• physician density
• healthcare utilization

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