The Great Power Reflexes of the United States under Donald Trump’s Second Term

Abstract

After the Cold War, the U.S. emerged as the ‘remaining great power’, and further consolidated its position after the September 11 attacks. However, disputed American policies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine led to a decline in recognition of its leading status. The U.S. exhibited turbulent great power reflexes in these crises, resulting in relative failures to uphold the expected responsibilities of a great power to give a central direction to the trajectory of the international society: preserving a general balance of power, avoidance and control of crises, and limitation of wars. With the beginning of President Trump’s second term in January 2025, there have been indications of a recalibration in U.S. foreign policy, marked by a shift in rhetoric to recover these great power reflexes. Within this framework, this study evaluates the policies of the U.S. particularly towards two key cases: the Russian war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and relevant developments in the Middle East. For the research involved, the study employs content analysis of official White House documents, including ‘Briefings & Statements’ and related ‘Remarks’ from 2025, in order to answer “To what extent does the U.S. by leveraging its military, economic and political power tend to lead and give a central direction to the trajectory of the international events as a reflex of its great power status?”. The findings suggest that the Trump administration in its second term has inclined to align with traditional great power responsibilities - seeking for a general balance of power, limitation of wars, and avoidance and control of crises. The reluctance about the “boots on the ground” policy, and the attempt to transfer a fair level of responsibility to European powers in Ukraine in line with the “America First” policies, have complicated the interactions but not entirely undermined these great power reflexes.

Keywords

• Trump
• Great Power
• Balance of Power
• America First
• Ukraine
• Israel-Palestine

Donald Trump'ın İkinci Döneminde Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nin Büyük Güç Refleksleri

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ABD, kalan tek ‘büyük güç' oldu ve 11 Eylül saldırıları sonrasında bu konumunu daha da pekiştirdi. Ancak, ABD'nin Afganistan, Irak, Suriye ve Ukrayna'daki tartışmalı politikaları, öncü statüsüne yönelik tanınmasında düşüşe neden oldu. ABD, bu krizlerde istikrarsız büyük güç refleksleri sergileyerek, uluslararası toplumun gidişatına yön verme, genel güç dengesini koruma, krizleri önleme ve kontrol etme ile savaşları sınırlandırma gibi bir büyük güçten beklenen sorumlulukları yerine getirmede göreceli olarak başarısız oldu. Ocak 2025'te Başkan Trump'ın ikinci döneminin başlamasıyla birlikte, ABD dış politikasında bu büyük güç reflekslerini yeniden kazanmaya yönelik, söylem değişiklikleriyle belirginleşen, yeniden düzenleme emareleri görülmüştür. Bu çerçevede, bu çalışma, ABD'nin politikalarını özellikle iki önemli vaka üzerinden değerlendirmektedir: Rusya'nın Ukrayna'daki savaşı ve İsrail-Filistin çatışması ile Orta Doğu'daki ilgili gelişmeler. Araştırma kapsamında, çalışma, "ABD'nin askeri, ekonomik ve siyasi gücüyle bir büyük güç statüsünün bir refleksi olarak ne ölçüde uluslararası olayların gidişatına liderlik ettiği ve merkezi bir yön verdiği” sorusunu yanıtlamak amacıyla 2025 yılına ait ‘Bilgilendirme ve Açıklamalar’ ve ilgili ‘Demeçler’ bölümlerindeki Beyaz Saray belgelerini içerik analizi yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Bulgular, Trump yönetiminin ikinci döneminde, genel güç dengesini sağlama, savaşları sınırlandırma ve krizleri önleme ve kontrol etme çabaları ile geleneksel büyük güç sorumluluklarıyla uyumlu hareket etme eğiliminde olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, askeri kuvvetlerin bizzat sahaya inerek yürütülen "Postallar sahada" şeklinde ifade edilebilecek politikalara karşı duyulan isteksizlik ile "Önce Amerika" politikaları doğrultusunda Ukrayna'daki sorumluluğun adil bir seviyede Avrupalı güçlere devredilmesi girişimlerinin de, uluslararası etkileşimleri karmaşık hale getirse de ABD’nin büyük güç reflekslerini tam olarak zayıflatmadığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

• Trump
• Büyük Güç
• Güçler Dengesi
• Önce Amerika
• Ukrayna
• İsrail-Filistin

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