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OKUN KANUNUNDA YAŞ VE CİNSİYET ETKİSİ: G7 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Year 2018, Volume: 16 Issue: 4, 123 - 140, 30.12.2018

Abstract



İşsizlik ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki istikrarlı ampirik ilişki
makroekonomide “Okun Kanunu” olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Okun katsayısı da bu
ilişkinin derecesini belirtmektedir. Bu çalışmada G7 ülkeleri için yaş
gruplarına ve cinsiyete özgü Okun katsayılarının hesaplanması amaçlanmıştır.
Yapılan analizler sonucunda öncelikle söz konusu ülkelerin tamamında istikrarlı
bir Okun ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Tüm ülkelerde Okun katsayısının
yaş gruplarına ve cinsiyete göre değişiklik gösterdiği ampirik olarak
kanıtlanmıştır. İşsizlik oranındaki bir artışın ekonomiye - üretim cinsinden –
maliyetinin yaş ile birlikte arttığı bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyümenin
en düşük duyarlılığı, 15-24 yaş grubunun işsizliğine gösterdiği görülmüştür.
Erkek nüfusa ait işsizlikteki bir artışın ekonomi üzerindeki daraltıcı
etkisinin İngiltere, Japonya ve İtalya’da daha yüksek olduğu görülürken; ABD,
Kanada ve Almanya’da ise durumun bunun tam tersi olduğu görülmüştür.




References

  • APERGIS, Nicholas and Anthony REZITIS. (2003), “An Examination of Okun’s Law: Evidence from Regional Areas in Greece”, Applied Economics, S: 35(10), ss. 1147–1151. ATTFIELD, Clifford. L. F. and Brian SILVERSTONE (1998), “Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables”, Journal of Macroeconomics, S: 20(3), ss. 625-637. BARRETO, Humberto and Frank HOWLAND (1994), There Are Two Okun's Law Relationship between Output and Unemployment, Wabash College, USA. BINET, Marie-Estelle and François FACCHINI (2013), “Okun’s Law in the French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison”, Economics Bulletin, S: 33(1), ss. 420-433. DIXON, Robert, LIM GUAY C. and Jan C. van OURS (2016), “Revisiting Okun's Relationship”, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Papers, No: 9815. DUNSCH, Sophie (2016), “Okun’s Law and Youth Unemployment in Germany and Poland”, International Journal of Management and Economics, S: 49(1), ss.34-57. DUNSCH, Sophie (2017), “Age- and Gender-Specific Unemployment and Okun’s Law in CEE Countries”, Eastern European Economics, S: 55(4), ss. 377– 393. DURECHA, Richard, Alexandru MİNEAB Lavinia MUSTEACD and Lubica SLUSNAE (2014), “Regional Evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia”, Economic Modelling. S: 42, ss.57-65. ELHORST, J. Paul and Annette ILLY (2009). “A Simultaneous Equations Model with Interaction Effects in y, x and ε, and A Spatial Reformulation of Okun’s Law”, III World Conference of Spatial Econometrics, Barcelona. ENDERS, Walter (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, First Edition, Wiley and Sons, USA. FREEMAN, Donald G. (2000), “Regional Tests of Okun's Law”, International Advances in Economic Research, S: 6(3), ss. 557-570. GUISINGER, Amy Y. and Tara M. SINCLAIR. (2015), “Okun’s Law in Real Time”, International Journal of Forecasting, S: 31 (1), ss. 185–187. HODRICK, Robert J. and Edward C. PRESCOTT (1997), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, S:29(1), ss. 1-16. HUTENGS, Oliver and Georg STADTMANN, (2013), “Age Effects in Okun’s Law within the Eurozone”, Applied Economics Letters, S:20(9), ss. 821–825. HUTENGS, Oliver and Georg STADTMANN, (2014), “Don’t Trust Anybody Over 30: Youth Unemployment and Okun’s Law in CEE Countries”, Bank and Credit, S: 45(1), ss. 1-16. ILO (2018), http://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang--en/index.htm LEE, Jim (2000), “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from OECD Countries”, Journal of Macroeconomics, S:22(2), ss.331-356. MARCONI, Gabriele; Miroslav BEBLAVÝ and Ilaria MASELLI (2015), “Age Effects in Okun’s Law with Different Indicators of Unemployment”, Applied Economics Letter, S: 23(8), ss. 1-4. MOOSA, Imad A. (1997). “A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient”, Journal of Comparative Economics, S: 24(3), ss.335–356. OECD (2018). http://stats.oecd.org/ OKUN, Arthur M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section. American Statistical Association. PERMAN, Roger and Christophe TAVERA (2005), “A Cross-country Analysis of the Okun’s Law Coefficient Convergence in Europe”, Applied Economics, S: 37(21), ss. 2501–2513. PLOSSER, Charles. I. and G. WILLIAM SCHWERT (1979), Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance: A Dissenting Opinion “, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, S: 10, ss. 179-186. PRACHOWNY, Martin F. J. (1993), “Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates”, The Review of Economics and Statistics. 75(2), 331-336 SÖGNER, Leopold and Alfred STIASSNY (2002), “An Analysis on the Structural Stability of Okun’s law - A Cross-Country Study”, Applied Economics, S: 34(14), ss. 1775-1787. SÖGNER, Leopold (2001), “Okun’s Law Does the Austrian Unemployment – GDP Relationship Exhibits Structural Breaks?”, Empirical Economics. 26(3), ss. 553-564. VILLAVERDE, José and Adolfo MAZA (2007), “Okun’s Law in the Spanish Regions”, Economics Bulletin, S:18(5), ss. 1-11. VILLAVERDE, José and Adolfo MAZA (2009), “The Robustness of Okun’s Law in Spain, 1980–2004 Regional Evidence”, Journal of Policy Modelling, S: 31, ss. 289–297. VIREN, Matti (2001), “The Okun Curve is Non-linear”, Economics Letters, S: 70(2), ss. 253–257. WEBER, Christian E. (1995), “Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach Source”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 10(4), ss. 433-445. YAZGAN, M. Ege and Hakan YILMAZKUDAY, H. (2009), “Okun’s Convergence within the US”, Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, S: 2(2), ss. 109–122. ZANIN, Luca (2014), “On Okun’s Law in OECD Countries: An Analysis by Age Cohorts”, Economics Letters, S: 125(2), ss. 243-248.
Year 2018, Volume: 16 Issue: 4, 123 - 140, 30.12.2018

Abstract

References

  • APERGIS, Nicholas and Anthony REZITIS. (2003), “An Examination of Okun’s Law: Evidence from Regional Areas in Greece”, Applied Economics, S: 35(10), ss. 1147–1151. ATTFIELD, Clifford. L. F. and Brian SILVERSTONE (1998), “Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables”, Journal of Macroeconomics, S: 20(3), ss. 625-637. BARRETO, Humberto and Frank HOWLAND (1994), There Are Two Okun's Law Relationship between Output and Unemployment, Wabash College, USA. BINET, Marie-Estelle and François FACCHINI (2013), “Okun’s Law in the French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison”, Economics Bulletin, S: 33(1), ss. 420-433. DIXON, Robert, LIM GUAY C. and Jan C. van OURS (2016), “Revisiting Okun's Relationship”, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Papers, No: 9815. DUNSCH, Sophie (2016), “Okun’s Law and Youth Unemployment in Germany and Poland”, International Journal of Management and Economics, S: 49(1), ss.34-57. DUNSCH, Sophie (2017), “Age- and Gender-Specific Unemployment and Okun’s Law in CEE Countries”, Eastern European Economics, S: 55(4), ss. 377– 393. DURECHA, Richard, Alexandru MİNEAB Lavinia MUSTEACD and Lubica SLUSNAE (2014), “Regional Evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia”, Economic Modelling. S: 42, ss.57-65. ELHORST, J. Paul and Annette ILLY (2009). “A Simultaneous Equations Model with Interaction Effects in y, x and ε, and A Spatial Reformulation of Okun’s Law”, III World Conference of Spatial Econometrics, Barcelona. ENDERS, Walter (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, First Edition, Wiley and Sons, USA. FREEMAN, Donald G. (2000), “Regional Tests of Okun's Law”, International Advances in Economic Research, S: 6(3), ss. 557-570. GUISINGER, Amy Y. and Tara M. SINCLAIR. (2015), “Okun’s Law in Real Time”, International Journal of Forecasting, S: 31 (1), ss. 185–187. HODRICK, Robert J. and Edward C. PRESCOTT (1997), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, S:29(1), ss. 1-16. HUTENGS, Oliver and Georg STADTMANN, (2013), “Age Effects in Okun’s Law within the Eurozone”, Applied Economics Letters, S:20(9), ss. 821–825. HUTENGS, Oliver and Georg STADTMANN, (2014), “Don’t Trust Anybody Over 30: Youth Unemployment and Okun’s Law in CEE Countries”, Bank and Credit, S: 45(1), ss. 1-16. ILO (2018), http://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang--en/index.htm LEE, Jim (2000), “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from OECD Countries”, Journal of Macroeconomics, S:22(2), ss.331-356. MARCONI, Gabriele; Miroslav BEBLAVÝ and Ilaria MASELLI (2015), “Age Effects in Okun’s Law with Different Indicators of Unemployment”, Applied Economics Letter, S: 23(8), ss. 1-4. MOOSA, Imad A. (1997). “A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient”, Journal of Comparative Economics, S: 24(3), ss.335–356. OECD (2018). http://stats.oecd.org/ OKUN, Arthur M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section. American Statistical Association. PERMAN, Roger and Christophe TAVERA (2005), “A Cross-country Analysis of the Okun’s Law Coefficient Convergence in Europe”, Applied Economics, S: 37(21), ss. 2501–2513. PLOSSER, Charles. I. and G. WILLIAM SCHWERT (1979), Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance: A Dissenting Opinion “, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, S: 10, ss. 179-186. PRACHOWNY, Martin F. J. (1993), “Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates”, The Review of Economics and Statistics. 75(2), 331-336 SÖGNER, Leopold and Alfred STIASSNY (2002), “An Analysis on the Structural Stability of Okun’s law - A Cross-Country Study”, Applied Economics, S: 34(14), ss. 1775-1787. SÖGNER, Leopold (2001), “Okun’s Law Does the Austrian Unemployment – GDP Relationship Exhibits Structural Breaks?”, Empirical Economics. 26(3), ss. 553-564. VILLAVERDE, José and Adolfo MAZA (2007), “Okun’s Law in the Spanish Regions”, Economics Bulletin, S:18(5), ss. 1-11. VILLAVERDE, José and Adolfo MAZA (2009), “The Robustness of Okun’s Law in Spain, 1980–2004 Regional Evidence”, Journal of Policy Modelling, S: 31, ss. 289–297. VIREN, Matti (2001), “The Okun Curve is Non-linear”, Economics Letters, S: 70(2), ss. 253–257. WEBER, Christian E. (1995), “Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach Source”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 10(4), ss. 433-445. YAZGAN, M. Ege and Hakan YILMAZKUDAY, H. (2009), “Okun’s Convergence within the US”, Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, S: 2(2), ss. 109–122. ZANIN, Luca (2014), “On Okun’s Law in OECD Countries: An Analysis by Age Cohorts”, Economics Letters, S: 125(2), ss. 243-248.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Güçlü

Publication Date December 30, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 16 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Güçlü, M. (2018). OKUN KANUNUNDA YAŞ VE CİNSİYET ETKİSİ: G7 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(4), 123-140. https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.505925